000
AGXX40 KNHC 250610
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION   
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 
130 AM THU MAY 25 2006

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND 
SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W.

SW N ATLC WATERS...WEAK FRONT LIES ACROSS THE AREA FROM NEAR 
28N65W TO N BAHAMAS. THE FRONT WILL DISSIPATE TODAY. HIGH 
PRESSURE N OF THE AREA WILL BUILD SOUTHWARD...THEN MOVE TO 
NEAR BERMUDA LATER TONIGHT/FRI WITH RIDGE EXTENDING WSW 
ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA. HIGH WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA 
WITH RIDGE SLOWLY MOVING SEWD OVER THE WEEKEND. AS RIDGE
BUILDS WINDS BECOME TYPICAL E-SEWD 10-15 KT S OF THE AXIS 
AND S TO SW OVER THE N PORTION. RIDGE FORECAST TO WEAKEN LATE
IN THE WEEKEND AS NEXT WEAK FRONT/TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE 
INTO THE NW PORTION OF THE AREA. MOST MODELS INCLUDING THE GFS 
ENSEMBLE MEAN DEVELOP A CUT-OFF LOW OVER THE SW N ATLC NEAR 
30N70W LATE SUN/MON.  GFS/NOGAPS INDICATE THAT A WEAK BROAD 
SURFACE LOW MAY FORM OVER THE AREA.  THIS KEEPS RIDGE WEAK 
WITH LIGHT WINDS OVER THE AREA...EVEN AROUND THE VERY BROAD 
AND STRUNG OUT LOW. LIKELY WILL SEE AN INCREASE IN SHOWER/TSTM 
ACTIVITY ESPECIALLY OVER THE NE PORTION OF THE AREA BY EARLY 
NEXT WEEK.
 
GULF OF MEXICO WATERS...RIDGE ACROSS THE AREA ALONG 28N WILL 
REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. WINDS GENERALLY 
15 KT OR LESS WITH SEAS 4 FT OR LESS. BY SATURDAY...NEW HIGH 
FORMS OVER THE N CENTRAL GULF. WINDS W OF 90W ARE NOW FORECAST 
BY THE GFS TO INCREASE A LITTLE THIS WEEKEND...WITH WINDS SELY 
AROUND 15 KT. LATE SUNDAY AND MONDAY WINDS MAY REACH 15-20 KT 
WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 4-6 FT. MUST INCREASE WINDS IN THE CURRENT 
FORECAST TO REFLECT THIS UPWARD TREND.  E OF 90W...WINDS ARE 
FORECAST TO REMAIN LIGHT THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD.

CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL ATLC WATERS...ATLC RIDGE IS CONTRIBUTING
TO A FAIRLY STRONG PRES GRADIENT OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL 
CARIBBEAN. THIS IS PRODUCING ELY TRADES 20-25 KT...WITH THE 
STRONGEST ALONG THE COAST OF NW VENEZUELA AND NE COLOMBIA. 
SEAS LIKELY A COUPLE FEET HIGHER THAN INDICATED BY NWW3. WINDS 
TO CHANGE LITTLE THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. ATLC RIDGE IS 
FORECAST TO WEAKEN LATE SUN/MON WHICH MAY DECREASE AREAL EXTENT 
OR WINDS...BUT WILL LIKELY KEEP 20-25 KT OVER THE FAR SOUTHERN 
PORTIONS.

GFS CONTINUES TO FORECAST ENHANCED SELY BREEZES ALONG THE COAST 
OF BELIZE AND WILL KEEP IN FORECASTS. ELSEWHERE OVER THE 
CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL ATLC...TRADES GENERALLY AROUND 15 KT. 
 
WARNINGS...

ATLANTIC...
NONE.

CARIBBEAN...
NONE.

GULF OF MEXICO...
NONE.

FORECASTER BROWN