000 AGXX40 KNHC 231724 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 125 PM TUE MAY 23 2006 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. SW N ATLC... EXTREMELY WEAK COLD FRONT IS PRESSING S ACROSS THE FAR N PORTION OF THE MARINE AREA FROM 30N65W TO 29N70W THEN BACK TOWARDS THE SOUTHEAST US COAST NEAR 31N80W. THE WIND FIELD IS VERY LIGHT NEAR THE BOUNDARY...WITH QUIKSCAT INDICATING NO MORE THAN 5-10 KT SW/W WINDS SHIFTING TO NW BEHIND THE FRONT MAINLY E OF 70W. THE RIDGE IS ALONG 26N WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER (10-15 KT) E/SE WINDS S OF THE BAHAMAS AND NEAR HISPANIOLA. THE COLD FRONT WEAKENS AND SHIFTS E TONIGHT WITH A SECOND BOUNDARY MOVING INTO THE NW PART WED AFTERNOON AND MOVING TO 29N65W 27N70W THU THEN DISSIPATING LATE THU. WINDS WILL ALSO BE LIGHT WITH THIS BOUNDARY AND WILL NOT EXCEED 15 KT BEHIND THE FRONT. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE WRN BAHAMAS TONIGHT AND DRIFTS SLOWLY E TO 74W THROUGH FRI...THEN ALLOWING A SURFACE RIDGE TO BUILD W ALONG 27N SAT AND SUN. S/SWLY WINDS INCREASE OVER THE FAR NW PART OF THE AREA THU NIGHT THROUGH EARLY SAT AS A SERIES OF LOW PRES CENTERS TRAVERSE THE MID-ATLC STATES...BUT THE RIDGE KEEPS THESE FEATURES N OF THE AREA. TRICKIEST PART OF THE FCST IS THAT WINDS ARE SO LIGHT THAT MODEL GUIDANCE HAS DIFFICULTY BEING CONSISTENT ON WIND DIRECTIONS. I WILL CONTINUE TREND OF RELYING ON CONCEPTUAL FRONTAL/RIDGE MODELS FOR WIND DIRECTIONS AND USE VARIABLE WORDING WHEN NECESSARY. CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL N ATLC... FAIRLY STRONG GRADIENT OVER THE CARIBBEAN IS PRODUCING ELY TRADES 20-25 KT S OF 17N E OF 80W. A HIGH RESOLUTION QUIKSCAT PASS FROM THIS MORNING INDICATED MAXIMUM WINDS UP TO 27-28 KT ABOUT 100-150 NM N OF THE COLOMBIAN COAST...AND SEAS ARE LIKELY BUILDING TO 10 OR 11 FT IN THE AREA. PRES GRADIENT PATTERN REMAINS FAIRLY CONSISTENT THROUGH SUN WITH SLIGHT WEAKENING BEGINNING ON FRI WHICH WILL LIKELY DECREASE THE AREA EXPERIENCING THE STRONGEST WINDS/HIGHEST SEAS. GULF OF MEXICO... NEARLY STATIONARY UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER THE WRN GULF NEAR 24N92W IS PRODUCING WIDESPREAD TSTM ACTIVITY OVER THE E/MIDDLE GULF. SOME SORT OF UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING CONTINUES OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD...WHICH WILL MAINTAIN THE CHANCES FOR TSTMS AND BRIEF EPISODES OF GUSTY WINDS OVER THE ERN 2 ZONES. AS FOR WINDS...WEAK HIGH PRES OVER THE NE GULF IS PRODUCING MAINLY LIGHT E/SE WINDS OVER THE AREA WHICH WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRI. A STRONG E/W RIDGE DEVELOPS ON SAT ALONG 26N/27N WHICH WILL ENHANCE A MORE S/SWLY COMPONENT N OF THE AXIS OVER THE WEEKEND. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THE WRN GULF UPPER LOW WILL DRIFT SLOWLY W TOWARDS THE TEXAS/MEXICO COAST IN THE COMING DAYS...BUT THE FEATURE DOES NOT APPEAR SHARP ENOUGH TO DRASTICALLY AFFECT THE WIND FIELD. WARNINGS... ATLANTIC... NONE. CARIBBEAN... NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. FORECASTER BERG