000 AGXX40 KNHC 220601 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 200 AM MON MAY 22 2006 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... ALOFT...AN UPPER CUTOFF LOW NEAR 24N96W IS FORECAST TO MEANDER AROUND THE SW WATERS GRADUALLY FILLING BY FRI. WINDS ON BUOY 42055 BEGAN TO BACK TO THE NE LATE SUN SUGGESTING THE UPPER LOW MAY BE SPINNING DOWN IN THE LOW LEVELS...BUT THE WINDS VEERED BACK TO THE E AT 04Z AND 05Z WITH PRES RISING THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. SURFACE HIGH PRES OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO IS FORECAST TO REMAIN OVER THE NE GULF THROUGH WED THEN SHIFT NE INTO THE ATLC BUT CONTINUE TO RIDGE WSW ACROSS THE NORTHERN WATERS THU AND FRI. THE REMNANTS OF PERSISTENT FRONTAL TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN IS FORECAST TO MOVE NW ACCOMPANIED BY CONVECTION. CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK CONTINUES TO RESULT IN THE GFS SUGGESTING LOW PRES DEVELOPMENT VICINITY BAY OF CAMPECHE. OTHER MODELS VARY ON LOW DEVELOPMENT AND MOST HINT AT A TROUGH WITH GRADIENT INCREASING TO 20 KT E OF ITS AXIS. I WILL GO WITH A CONSERVATIVE N TO S TROUGH TONIGHT...WITH SE 15-20 KT SEAS TO 7 FT E OF THE AXIS...AND MOVE THE TROUGH INLAND TX AROUND SUNRISE WED WITH A RIDGE E TO W ALONG 28N REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. SW N ATLC... REMNANT FRONTAL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 32N56W TO NW CUBA. THE SOUTHERN SEGMENT IS FORECAST TO MOVE NW OVER S FL AND THE STRAITS OF FL THROUGH TUE WITH THE ACCOMPANYING TROPICAL MOISTURE LIKELY ENDING THE DRY SEASON IN S FL. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SE INTO THE NW WATERS MERGING WITH THE N SEGMENT OF THE FRONTAL TROUGH WITH THE NEW BOUNDARY LYING E TO W ALONG 29N WED...WITH THE FRONT CONTINUING SE REACHING THE SE BAHAMAS THU...AND LOSING IDENTITY OVER THE NE PORTION OF THE TROPICAL ATLC ZONE FRI. HIGH PRES OVER THE NE GULF WILL SHIFT E ACROSS N FL INTO ATLC WATERS BEHIND THE FRONT THU AND CONTINUE NE TO NEAR BERMUDA LATE FRI. CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL N ATLC... CONTINUING TO MONITOR MONTSERRAT VOLCANO FOR ADDITIONAL ASH EMISSIONS BUT IT WILL BE WELL AFTER SUNRISE THIS MORNING BEFORE HIGH RESOLUTION VISIBLE IMAGERY CAN BE EXAMINED FOR ASH CLOUD. SURFACE TROUGH FROM NW CUBA TO YUCATAN PENINSULA WILL DRIFT NW OF AREA TODAY. LATEST QSCAT INDICATES THAT THE TRADES HAVE INCREASED TO 20 TO 25 KT OVER THE S CENTRAL CARIBBEAN AND THIS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRI. A TROPICAL WAVE S OF 10N ALONG 60W MAY ACTUALLY EXTEND AS FAR N AS 13N...BUT HAS LITTLE CONVECTION EVEN OVER LAND ATTM. THE WAVE IS MOVING W AT 18 KT AND WILL MOVE THROUGH THE SW CARIBBEAN WATERS WED NIGHT THROUGH THU. ANOTHER WAVE ALONG 30W WILL MOVE W TO ALONG 55W THU NIGHT...AND INTO THE SE CARIBBEAN FRI NIGHT. CONVECTION REMAINS S OF 6N ATTM. WARNINGS... ATLANTIC... NONE. CARIBBEAN... NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. FORECASTER NELSON