000 AGXX40 KNHC 151702 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 100 PM MON MAY 15 2006 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. UPPER LEVELS... BROAD TROUGH IS OVER THE AREA WEST OF 75W WITH A RIDGE EAST OF 75W. THE RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE ATLANTIC AREA AND THE TROUGH WILL DEVELOP OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO AND BY TUESDAY NIGHT THE RIDGE IS EAST OF 70W WITH AN AXIS ALONG A LINE TROUGH 31N57W TO THE VIRGIN ISLANDS AND A TROUGH IS WEST OF 75W WITHOUT A WELL DEFINED AXIS. THIS PATTERN WILL AMPLIFY SOME THROUGH WEDNESDAY. BY THURSDAY THE PATTERN WILL FLATTEN SOME AS THE TROUGH MOVES SOMEWHAT EAST NORTHEAST AND THE RIDGE RETREATS SOUTHEASTWARD. BY LATE FRIDAY THE TROUGH WILL BE NORTH OF 28N WITH A LARGE RIDGE OVER MOST OF THE AREA. SURFACE... A RIDGE EAST OF THE AREA WILL REMAIN WEAK THROUGH TONIGHT THEN BEGIN TO AMPLIFY IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. THIS SETS THE SCENE FOR INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT AND ITS ASSOCIATED TROUGH THAT WILL MOVE OFF THE U.S. COAST MONDAY. THE FRONT WILL MAKE ONLY SLOW EASTWARD PROGRESS WITH THE RIDGE REMAINING STRONG WITH MODERATE TO STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT THAT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY. ON FRIDAY THE FRONTAL TROUGH WEAKENS AND THE SOUTHERLY WINDS DECREASE. NORTHERLY WINDS BEHIND THE SAME FRONT OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL BE MODERATE TO STRONG MAINLY OVER THE WEST GULF. THE FRONT WILL MOVE OFF THE TEXAS COAST LATER TONIGHT. THE STRONGER NORTHERLY WINDS WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT SOUTHWARD OVER THE SOUTHWEST GULF BY TUESDAY NIGHT. THE WINDS SHOULD DECREASE BEGINNING WEDNESDAY. RIDGE WILL BE ACROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY FROM 25 TO 30N. THE BUILDING ATLANTIC RIDGE WILL ALSO BE ASSOCIATED WITH INCREASING TRADES IN THE CARIBBEAN. BECAUSE THE RIDGE IS RATHER FAR EAST THE STRONGER CARIBBEAN WINDS WILL BE IN THE SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN. BY SATURDAY A MORE NORMAL PATTERN WILL PREVAIL WITH THE STRONGEST TRADES NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. WARNINGS... ATLANTIC... NONE. CARIBBEAN... NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. FORECASTER LL