000 AGXX40 KNHC 121753 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 150 PM FRI MAY 12 2006 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. SW N ATLC... COLD FRONT HAS CLEARED THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND EXTENDS FROM 31N74W ACROSS GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND THEN TO THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. A QUIKSCAT PASS FROM 1028 UTC INDICATED THAT WINDS WERE STILL UP TO 20 KT BEHIND THE FRONT OFF THE E COAST OF FLORIDA...BUT OBSERVATIONS NOW INDICATE THAT THESE HAVE DECREASED TO AROUND 10 KT AT NOAA BUOY 41010 AND ABOUT 13 KT AT THE CMAN STATION AT SETTLEMENT POINT. THE GFS NOW INDICATES THAT THE 20 KT WIND FIELD HAS SHIFTED N OF THE AREA AND ONLY SW 15 KT IS AHEAD OF THE FRONT. NWW3 SEA HEIGHTS LOOK REASONABLY CLOSE TO THE BUOY OBS AND THE HIGHEST SEAS ARE NOW JUST E OF THE FRONT...LIKELY UP TO 5 FT. THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE MOVING E ACROSS THE AREA UNTIL LATE SUN AS RIDGING BUILDS IN FROM THE W. A SECOND COLD FRONT MOVES OFF THE SE US COAST MON AFTERNOON WITH SWLY WINDS INCREASING TO 20 KT AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY STARTING SUN NIGHT. WINDS VEER TO WLY BEHIND THE FRONT BUT NEVER REALLY REALIZE THE CLASSIC NW/N DIRECTION...PROBABLY BECAUSE THE BOUNDARY STALLS WITH THE ASSOCIATED ENERGY LIFTING N. THE RIDGE WILL BE SUPPRESSED E OF 75W TUE AND WED WITH INCREASING SE/S FLOW FEEDING INTO THE SYSTEM. CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL N ATLC... WEAK RIDGE OVER THE ATLC HAS LED TO A VERY WEAK PRES GRADIENT OVER THE CARIBBEAN. WINDS ARE GENERALLY 10 KT OR LESS OVER MOST OF THE AREA EXCEPT FOR ENHANCED 15 KT SE WINDS OVER THE E CARIBBEAN...E OF A WEAK TROUGH ALONG 70W. SEAS HEIGHTS ARE LOW AS WELL...BASICALLY 1-2 FT W OF 70W AND 3 TO 5 FT E OF 70W. THE RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD W SAT AND SUN WITH WINDS INCREASING TO 20 KT OFF THE VENEZUELAN/COLOMBIAN COAST THEN INCREASING AND EXPANDING IN COVERAGE MON THROUGH WED. GULF OF MEXICO... COLD FRONT NOW EXTENDS FROM THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE...BUT WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO LESS THAN 20 KT AND THE HIGHEST SEAS ARE NEAR 6 FT AT BUOY 42055 IN THE SW GULF. HIGH PRES IS BUILDING IN BEHIND THE FRONT AND WILL SHIFT EWD ACROSS THE N GULF THROUGH SUN. A SECOND COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OFF THE N GULF COAST LATE SUN BUT WINDS WILL ONLY BRIEFLY INCREASE NEAR THE BOUNDARY N OF 28N...AND ON MON OVER THE NW GULF AS HIGH PRES BUILDS OVER THE AREA FROM TEXAS. THE BIGGEST QUESTION RIGHT NOW IS THE POSSIBILITY OF LOW PRES DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT OVER THE CNTRL GULF ON TUE/WED. THE 06Z GFS RUN WAS GUNG-HO ON DEVELOPING A GALE-FORCE SYSTEM BUT NOW THE 12Z RUN HAS COME IN WITH A MORE SUBDUED TONE...ONLY SHOWING WINDS ABOUT 20-25 KT. FORECAST WILL MAINTAIN CONTINUITY AND LEAN TOWARDS THE GFS ENSEMBLE WHICH SHOWS WINDS INCREASING TO 20 KT OVER THE W GULF BEHIND THE FRONT. FOR NOW I WILL NOT GO WITH A SOLUTION THAT DEVELOPS STRONG LOW PRES UNTIL WE SEE MORE RUN-TO-RUN CONTINUITY. WARNINGS... ATLANTIC... NONE. CARIBBEAN... NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. FORECASTER BERG