000 AGXX40 KNHC 101647 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1245 EDT WED MAY 10 2006 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. ALOFT...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH LIES OVER THE WESTERN N ATLC STEMMING FROM A COMPLEX UPPER CYCLONE WITH MEAN CENTER NEAR 40N70W. A NEGATIVE TILT SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXTENDS SE INTO THE DISCUSSION AREA ALONG 31N69W 19N55W. IMMEDIATELY TO THE W OF THIS TROUGH AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE IS CENTERED OVER PANAMA AT 9N77W WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING NW ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA THROUGH ANOTHER ANTICYCLONE OVER GUATEMALA AT 17N90.5W...WITH THE RIDGE CONTINUING N CRESTING OVER THE SE CONUS. MOISTURE IS SPREADING N ALONG THE W PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE OVER THE W GULF OF MEXICO. UPPER MOISTURE IS NOTED E OF THE TROUGH...N OF 21N E OF 68W. OTHERWISE UPPER DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE IS SUPPRESSING CONVECTION IN THE DISCUSSION AREA WITH THE EXCEPTION OF LOCAL SEABREEZE ENHANCEMENTS. AT THE LOW LEVELS...A REMNANT NE TO SW SURFACE TROUGH CONTINUES TO SPLIT THE ATLC SUBTROPICAL RIDGE JUST SE OF BERMUDA FROM ANOTHER NEAR 25N30W. A WEAK EXTENSION OF THIS TROUGH STILL IS EVIDENT OVER THE NE PORTION OF TROPICAL ATLC ZONE. A FRONT IS BEING BLOCKED ALONG 31N65W 28N65W 28N81W BUT EXPECTED TO DRIFT SE AND GRADUALLY DISSIPATE N OF MONA PASSAGE THU. ADDITIONALLY...AGRICULTURE SMOKE HAS SPREAD N FROM CENTRAL AMERICA AND CUBA COVERING MOST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO WHILE SMOKE FROM FL FIRES SPREADS OFF THE E COAST OF FL. THE GRADIENT SUPPORTING SW 15-20 KT SW OF LINE FROM 27N87W THROUGH YUCATAN CHANNEL TO 17N82W. ENE WINDS TO 20 KT BUILDING BACK ALONG THE NW COAST OF COLUMBIA. ELY 15 KT TRADES MOVING INTO SE PORTION OF ATLC TROPICAL ZONE TO THE COAST OF S AMERICA. NEXT COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO GULF OF MEXICO TONIGHT WITH NLY WINDS 20-25 KT AND SEAS BUILDING TO 8 FT OVER NW GULF. FRONT LOSES ITS PUSH E OF FL...BUT MAINTAINS A WIND SHIFT THROUGH ITS BERMUDA PASSAGE THEN FIZZLES OUT OVER SE ATLC WATERS SAT NIGHT. BY THEN THE NEXT COLD FRONT ORIENTATED ENE-WSW OVER N GULF WATERS...WILL BEGIN TO MOVE SE AND OFF GA COAST LATE SUN TRAILING FRONT SW OVER SE GULF WATERS AT SUNRISE MON. GFS TAKES THIS FRONT INTO NW BAHAMAS TO YUCATAN CHANNEL MON NIGHT. WARNINGS... NONE. FORECASTER NELSON