000 AGXX40 KNHC 091848 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 245 PM EDT TUE MAY 09 2006 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. UPPER LEVELS... BROAD UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE WESTERN N ATLC...BUT IS SHIFTING E WITH TIME AS STRONG RIDGING OVER CENTRAL CONUS N AMERICA FILLS THE TROUGH FROM THE W. EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROUGHS ARE SWINGING EASTWARD THROUGH THE TROUGH AS RIDGING FROM THE TROPICS CONTINUES TO NUDGE NORTHWARD ACROSS THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN AND GULF OF MEXICO. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH RESPONSIBLE FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAS ITS MEAN AXIS EXTENDING FROM SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE DISCUSSION AREA THROUGH 32N69W TO NEAR 20N63W. O THE W OF THIS TROUGH...AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE IS CENTERED OVER THE BORDER OF HONDURAS/NICARAGUA WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING NORTHWESTWARD INTO THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN AND GULF OF MEXICO. THIS PATTERN WILL HOLD THROUGH LATE THU...THEN ANOTHER BROAD TROUGH QUICKLY MOVES SE INTO THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO FRI AND MOVES TO THE WESTERN N ATLC SAT...REACHING THE E PORTION OF THE SW N ATLC SUN. THIS TROUGH...IT APPEARS...WILL ALSO BE ACCOMPANIED BY EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROUGHS ALLOWING FOR W-NW FLOW TO PREVAIL ACROSS ALL ZONES THROUGH SUN. LOWER LEVELS... A REMNANT SURFACE TROUGH ROUGHLY EXTENDS FROM 22N55W TO THE LEEWARD ISLANDS WHERE IT BECOMES DIFFUSE. A RIDGE EXTENDS SW INTO THE E PART OF THE AREA NEAR 27N65W...AND EXTENDS TO THE SE BAHAMAS. A WEAK FRONT OVER THE NORTHERN PORTION EXETNDS FROM 31N72W TO INLAND NE FLORIDA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THIS FRONT WILL MOVE TO A PSN FROM 31N67W TO 26N76W THEN AS FRONTAL TROUGH TO S FLORIDA WED AFTERNOON AND BECOME DIFFUSE LATE WED NIGHT INTO THU W OF 72W WITH REMAINDER OF FRONT EXTENDING FROM 29N65W TO 25N71W LATE THU NIGHT AND DISSIPATING FRI. EXPECT SLY WINDS TO BRIEFLY INCREASE AHEAD TO 15-20 KT AHEAD OF THE FRONT N OF MAINLY 28N TONIGHT AND WED AND DECREASE LATE WED NIGHT. A WEAK PRES GRADIENT EXISTS ELSEWHERE OVER THE SW N ATLC W OF THE RIDGE AS WELL AS OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO. LOW PRES IS ANALYZED OVER MEXICO AS A DRY LINE EXTENDS ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS. THIS AREA OF LOW PRES IS RESULTING IN SLY 15-20 KT WINDS OVER THE W GULF AS LIGHT MOSTLY SLY WINDS CONTINUE OVER THE E GULF. THE RIDGE WILL RETREAT EASTWARD WED NIGHT IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT MOVING OFF THE TX COAST LATE WED NIGHT. GFS FORECASTS THE FRONT TO REACH A FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO BAY OF CAMPECHE LINE THU THEN MOVES OFF THE GEORGIA COAST THU NIGHT. MODELS IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT FRONT WEAKENS AND SLOWS DOWN OVER THE E PART OF THE SW N ATLC FRI FROM 29N65W SW TO NEAR THE SE BAHAMAS AND BECOMES A FRONTAL TROUGH LATE FRI INTO EARLY SAT...THEN DISSIPATES LATER SAT. GFS...NAM AND TO SOME THE EUROPEAN MODELS SUGGEST THAT A FRONTAL WAVE MAY DEVELOP NEAR NW BAHAMAS SAT ON THE TAIL END OF THE FRONT. SLY WINDS WILL ALSO INCREASE AHEAD OF THIS FRONT TO 15-20 KT N OF 28N THU AND MOST OF FRI DECREASING EARLY FRI EVENING. GRADIENT STILL REMAINS TIGHT ENOUGH OVER THE S/CENTRAL GULF TO TO ALLOW FOR SE-S WINDS OF 15-20 KT TO CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST THU MORNING BEFORE RELAXING INTO THE WEEKEND. TYPICAL TRADES WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN WITH 15-20 KT WINDS ALONG THE NW COAST OF COLOMBIA THROUGH EARLY THU THEN DECREASING THEREAFTER THROUGH SUN AS ATLC HIGH PRES WEAKENS. OTHERWISE OVER REMAINDER OF CARIBBEAN TRADES WILL BE LIGHT WITH ALL WINDS LESS THAN 20 KT AND SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT THROUGH THE OUTLOOK PERIOD. WARNINGS... NONE. FORECASTER AGUIRRE