000 AGXX40 KNHC 081747 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 145 PM EDT MON MAY 08 2006 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. ALOFT...A LONGWAVE TROUGH DOMINATES THE EASTERN N AMERICA AND THE WESTERN N ATLC WITH MEAN UPPER AXIS ALONG 64W AND APPEARS TO SHIFTING E WITH TIME AS STRONG RIDGING OVER CENTRAL CONUS N AMERICA FILLS THE TROUGH FROM THE W. SHORTWAVES CONTINUE TO ROTATE THROUGH THE LARGER PATTERN ESPECIALLY OVER THE CONUS BUT RIDGING FROM THE TROPICS APPEARS TO BE SHIFTING THE WAVE TRAIN N WITH TIME. CURRENTLY THE PROMINENT EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE HAS ITS MEAN AXIS SLIGHTLY NEGATIVE TILT JUST OFFSHORE THE CONUS STEMMING FROM A CYCLONE SHIFTING NE ACROSS PA. THE TROUGH EXTENDS INTO THE DISCUSSION AREA ALONG 32N71W TO NEAR PUERTO RICO AT 18N66W. TO THE W OF THIS MAIN TROUGH AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE IS CENTERED OVER BELIZE AT 16N88W WITH A RIDGE N EXTENDING N ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO CRESTING OVER ARKANSAS. AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE CONTINUES NEAR 10N60W WITH A RIDGE NOW COLLAPSING OVER THE TROPICS ALONG POINTS 17N66W 24N50W AS AN EMBEDDED UPPER CYCLONE NEAR 25N58W AND ANOTHER NEAR 27N49W RACE ESE EFFECTIVELY ERODING THE NW PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE. ANOTHER UPPER ANTICYCLONE IS ESTIMATED NEAR 33N61W WITH THE ORIGINAL RIDGE STILL EXTENDING NE ACROSS THE SUBTROPICAL W ATLC AND BEYOND. AT THE LOW LEVELS...A REMNANT SURFACE TROUGH CONTINUES TO SPLIT THE ATLC SUBTROPICAL RIDGE JUST SE OF BERMUDA FROM ANOTHER NEAR 31N22W. THIS TROUGH EXTENDS S ACROSS N PORTION OF TROPICAL ATLC ZONE AND ACROSS THE LEEWARDS TO NEAR 17N63W...POSSIBLY FURTHER SW UNDER AN UPPER WIND MAXIMA ACCOMPANIED BY DENSE CLOUDS. A HIGH PRES 1020 MB IS NEAR 31N60W...AND IS EXPECTED DISSOLVE AS RIDGING FROM THE NE BUILDS SW ACROSS THE BAHAMAS AND S FL TURNING NW TO THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. THIS RIDGE WILL BUILD NW THROUGH WED PUSHING A STATIONARY FRONT...THAT CURRENTLY LIES E TO W ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF COASTAL PLAINS...N INTO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THE RIDGE WILL RETRACT EASTWARD WED NIGHT IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT MOVING OFF THE TX COAST LATE WED NIGHT AND CONTINUING E OFF THE GA COAST LATE THU. THE GFS IS NOW CONSISTENT EACH RUN TAKING THIS FRONT TO A QUASI-STATIONARY PSN FROM NEAR BERMUDA THROUGH THE NW BAHAMAS TO THE STRAITS OF FL SUNRISE SAT...AND EVEN HINTING AT FRONTAL WAVE FORMING OVER THE NW BAHAMAS SAT. THE GRADIENT STILL TIGHT SW OF THE RIDGE AXIS IN THE SLY RETURN FLOW IN THE S CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO 21N-27N BETWEEN 88W AND 92W MOSTLY 15-20 KT. THE USUAL NE 20 KT EXPECTED ALONG THE NW COAST OF COLUMBIA MERGING WITH 15-20 KT ELY TRADES ACROSS THE W CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WATERS. SLY FLOW INCREASE TO 15-20 KT NW ATLC WATERS AHEAD OF THE TRAIN OF WEAK FRONTS MOVING OFF THE SE CONUS. OTHERWISE WINDS LESS THAN 20 KT AND SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT THROUGH OUTLOOK PERIOD. WARNINGS... NONE. FORECASTER NELSON