000 AGXX40 KNHC 080500 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 130 AM EDT MON MAY 08 2006 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS LOCATED ALONG 60W WITH A VORTICITY CENTER NEAR 27N61W VISIBLE IN THE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY TONIGHT. A STRONGER SHORTWAVE WAS MOVING OFF THESE COAST IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE GFS MODEL. UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WRN GULF EXTENDS N OVER THE SRN PLAINS. ON THE SURFACE TONIGHT A WEAK TROUGH EXTENDED FROM THE LEEWARDS NE OVER THE MID ATLC. A WEAK RIDGE WAS CENTERED NEAR 30N61W 1019 MB AND A WEAK STATIONARY FRONT WAS OVER THE NW GULF COAST. REPORTS OF SMOKE REDUCING VISIBILITIES OVER THE GULF AND FL STRAITS TONIGHT. STRONG ZONAL FLOW DAY 1 REDUCES AMPLITUDE OF BOTH SHORTWAVES AS THEY CONTINUE EWD. GULF UPPER RIDGE FLATTENS OUT. NRN BRANCH OF WESTERLIES STAY N OF 40N FOR NOW. WEAK LOW MOVES OFF SE COAST WITH FRONT HANGING BACK JUST N OF GULF COAST DAY 1. WEAK RIDGE OVER ATLC EXTENDS SW TO NW BAHAMAS. SOME MODERATE WINDS N OF 29N W OF 70W AHEAD OF FRONT AND OVER CENTRAL CARIB. WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES TO NEAR 50W..CAUGHT UNDER A LARGE RIDGE OVER MID OCEAN. THE STRONGER SHORTWAVE ALONG THE MID ATLC COAST CLOSES OFF DAY 2 WHILE THE NRN BRANCH REMAINS NW OF THE AREA. ON THE SURFACE A WEAK COLD FRONT DROPS S OFF THE NE FL COAST DAY 2 WITH WINDS TO 20 KT MAINLY AHEAD OF THE FRONT. SOME RETURN FLOW BEGINNING W OF 90W AS PRESSURES FALL OVER THE SRN PLAINS. CARIB WINDS CHANGE LITTLE. OUTLOOK PERIOD... FIRST SHORTWAVE WASHES OUT OVER MID OCEAN DAY 3. LARGE CLOSED OFF UPPER LOW OFF MID ATLC COAST LOWERS HEIGHTS ALONG 60W TO 70W DAY 3. STRONG UPPER TROUGH DIVING SE OVER NRN PLAINS TIGHTENING GRADIENT OVER SRN AND CENTRAL PLAINS. ATLC FRONT MOVES E OF 70W DAY 3 WHILE EXTENDING BACK TO ERN BAHAMAS. WEAK AIRMASS FOLLOWING FRONT N OF BAHAMAS. RETURN FLOW OVER GULF W OF 90W TO 20 KT. LITTLE CHANGE OVER CARIB DAY 3. SMALLER VORTICITY CENTER BREAKS OFF FROM MID ATLC TROUGH AND MOVES SE TO NEAR 34N65W DAY 4. STRONG UPPER TROUGH MOVES SE INTO OH VALLEY STRENGTHENING THE NWLY FLOW INTO THE GULF COAST AND SE U.S. ON THE SURFACE A LOW PRESSURE CENTER MOVES E OVER THE SE U.S. WITH A FRONT MOVING TO THE GULF COAST DAY 4. WINDS MOSTLY LIGHT TO MODERATE AHEAD OF FRONT. REMAINDER OF THE AREA UNDER A WEAK GRADIENT AND LIGHT WINDS. DAY 5 FINDS A SHORTWAVE ALONG 30N60W MOVING ESE. STRONG UPPER TROUGH OVER MIDWEST CLOSES OFF WITH A STRONG NWLY FLOW FOLLOWING OVER THE PLAINS. ON THE SURFACE THE LOW MOVES OFF THE SE COAST WITH A WEAK FRONT SWINGING S OFF THE NE FL COAST DAY 5. THE FRONT EXTENDS BACK ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF WITH A 1019 MB HIGH FOLLOWING OVER ERN TX. NE WINDS TO 20 KT FOLLOWING THE FRONT. WEAK GRADIENT AND LIGHT WINDS CONTINUE OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA. WARNINGS... NONE. FORECASTER RRG