000 AGXX40 KNHC 071725 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 140 PM EDT SUN MAY 07 2006 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. ALOFT...A LONGWAVE TROUGH DOMINATES THE EASTERN CONUS AND WESTERN N ATLC. SHORTWAVES CONTINUE TO ROTATE THROUGH THE LARGER PATTERN ESPECIALLY OVER THE CONUS. CURRENTLY THE PROMINENT EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE HAS ITS MEAN AXIS BECOMING SLIGHTLY NEGATIVE TILT OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY EXTENDING INTO THE DISCUSSION AREA ALONG 32N88W 23N81W. A SMALL ILL-DEFINED ANTICYCLONE IS NOTED NEAR 27N78W WITH A SHORTWAVE RIDGE EXTENDING N TO A CREST NEAR 40N71W. IMMEDIATELY E A SHORTWAVE LIES ALONG 35N67W THROUGH A CYCLONE AT 29N69W WITH THE TROUGH CONTINUING S THROUGH THE THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN TO A SMALL UPPER CYCLONE AT OVER COSTA RICA. THE CENTRAL ATLC IS DOMINATED BY A LARGE CYCLONE AT 40N43W WITH ITS TROUGH EXTENDING S ALONG 40W ATTM. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE RIDGE ORIGINATES FROM AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE NEAR BARBADOS AT 13N60W WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING N ALONG 28N55W TO A CREST BECOMING UNSTABLE AT 38N55W. AT THE LOW LEVELS...REMNANT SURFACE TROUGH CONTINUES ACROSS N PORTION OF TROPICAL ATLC ZONE AND ACROSS THE LEEWARDS. A HIGH PRES 1018 MB IS NEAR 26N62W...AND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO SHIFT NE TO NEAR 31N57W AROUND SUNRISE MON. THE ASSOCIATED RIDGE THAT CURRENTLY EXTENDS W ALONG 26N ACROSS FL THEN TURNS NW ACROSS THE TO THE NE TEXAS COAST. THE RIDGE WILL SHIFT SLIGHTLY S OVER THE GULF AS A COLD FRONT OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY EXTENDING W ACROSS THE TEXAS COASTAL PLAINS MOVES E THROUGH THE NORTHERN GULF WATERS TODAY AND TONIGHT AND INTO ATLC BY SUNRISE MON AND STALLING ALONG 29N MON NIGHT. THE RIDGE WILL BUILD BACK TO NE THE TX COAST BRIEFLY TUE THEN RETRACT EASTWARD OVER THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT MOVING OFF THE TX COAST WED NIGHT AND CONTINUING E OFF THE GA COAST LATE THU. THE GFS IS BEGINNING TO TRACK THIS BOUNDARY AS A MUCH STRONGER COLD FRONT THAN YESTERDAYS RUNS...WITH THIS FRONT PROGGED NEAR 31N70W FRI NIGHT AND EXTENDING SW ACROSS THE N BAHAMAS INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN. THE GRADIENT STILL TIGHT SW OF THE RIDGE AXIS IN THE SLY RETURN FLOW SW AND NW GULF OF MEXICO SUPPORTING 15-20 KT THROUGH MIDDAY WED. THE USUAL NE 20 KT EXPECTED ALONG THE NW COAST OF COLUMBIA AND 15-20 KT ELY TRADES ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WATERS. SLY FLOW INCREASE TO 15-20 KT NW ATLC WATERS AHEAD OF THE TRAIN OF WEAK FRONTS MOVING OFF THE SE CONUS. OTHERWISE WINDS LESS THAN 20 KT AND SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT THROUGH OUTLOOK PERIOD. WARNINGS... NONE. FORECASTER NELSON