000
AGXX40 KNHC 060455
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION   
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 
130 AM EDT SAT MAY 06 2006

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND 
SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W.

FAIRLY STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER MID OCEAN ALONG 50W MOVING E 
20 KT TONIGHT. WEAK UPPER TROUGHING DEVELOPING ALONG ERN 
SEABOARD AS NRN BRANCH AND SRN BRANCH BRIEFLY PHASE TOGETHER. ON 
THE SURFACE WEAK TROUGH CONTINUES OVER MID OCEAN FROM 31N48W TO 
16N61W. STATIONARY FRONT NEAR N GULF COAST. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE 
OVER BAHAMAS AND SW ATLC. 

DAY 1 FINDS LARGE UPPER TROUGH OVER GREATLAKES KEEPS GIVING 
WEAKER SHORT WAVES IN SRN BRANCH A LITTLE AMPLITUDE AS THEY PASS 
EWD S OF 40W. ONE ALONG 75W AND A SECOND ONE BACK OVER THE LOWER 
MS VALLEY. STILL A THIRD ONE OVER THE SRN PLAINS. STATIONARY 
TROUGH CONTINUES OVER MID OCEAN FOR YET ANOTHER DAY. WEAK COLD 
FRONT MOVES OFF SE COAST BUT REMAINS STATIONARY BACK ALONG N 
GULF COAST DAY 1. LIGHT TO MODERATE RETURN FLOW W OF 90W. 
MODERATE TRADES S OF 17N OVER CARIB.

ONE SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES TO 60W DAY 2 WHILE SECOND ONE MOVES 
TO 80W. PLAINS SHORTWAVE MOVES TO TN VALLEY. UPPER TROUGH OVER 
GREATLAKES LIFTING NE OFF MARITIMES. WEAK COLD FRONT CONTINUES 
SLOWLY EWD OFF SE COAST TO NEAR 70W DAY 2 BUT HANGS BACK N OF 
GULF COAST. WEAK HIGH OVER ATLC 1019 MB NEAR 29N61W. LITTLE 
CHANGE TO OVERALL WINDS. 

OUTLOOK PERIOD...

BASIC ZONAL FLOW S OF 40N SETS UP DAY 3. POS TILT SHORTWAVE 
TROUGH MOVES TO 60W DAY 3. SECOND SHORTWAVE WASHES OUT OFF SE 
COAST WHILE THIRD ONE AMPLIFIES SOME OVER OH VALLEY SSW TO NE 
GULF COAST. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER SW ATLC NEAR 27N65W 
DAY 3 WITH WEAK RIDGE BACK TO NW BAHAMAS AND NE GULF. LOWER 
PRESSURE OVER MEXICO WILL KEEP MODERATE SELY FLOW W OF 90W. 
LITTLE CHANGE TO MODERATE TRADES OVER CARIB S OF 17N. 

FIRST SHORTWAVE WASHING OUT OVER MID OCEAN DAY 4 ALONG 55W. 
STRONGER SECOND SHORTWAVE MOVES OFF MID ATLC COAST HEADING NE 
LOWERS MID LEVEL HEIGHTS OFF SE COAST DAY 4. UPPER RIDGE 
BUILDING FROM N GULF NWD INTO OH VALLEY. ATLC RIDGE TRYING TO 
ESTABLISH ITSELF WITH ONE CELL OVER MID OCEAN NEAR 25N43W AND 
THE SECOND ONE JUST N OF THE AREA EXTENDING SW TO THE NW 
BAHAMAS.  SLY WINDS TO 20 KT CONTINUES W OF 90W DAY 4 AS SURFACE 
PRESSURES FALL OVER SRN PLAINS. LITTLE CHANGE TO CARIB WINDS.

SHORTWAVE OFF MID ATLC COAST BEGINS TO CUTOFF BETWEEN 60W AND 
70W WITH LOWER HEIGHTS S TO 25N. SECOND SHORTWAVE MOVES TO LOWER 
MS VALLEY DAY 5 WHILE A LARGER UPPER TROUGH DROPS SE OVER THE 
NRN PLAINS. THE ACTION REMAINS OVER THE GULF DAY 5 AS THE SLY 
RETURN FLOW REMAINS MODERATE AND SHIFTS A LITTLE E OF 90W. THE 
ATLC RIDGE REMAINS WEAK BUT SLOWLY ESTABLISHING ITSELF ALONG 27N 
KEEPING TRADES IN THE CARIB ABOUT THE SAME.

WARNINGS...
NONE.  


FORECASTER RRG