000 AGXX40 KNHC 050459 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 130 AM EDT FRI MAY 05 2006 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. ONE LARGE UPPER VORTEX MOVING E OVER THE SW ATLC TONIGHT ALONG 60W. A SECOND SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHING THE LOWER MS VALLEY ABOUT WHERE THE LATEST GFS MODEL SHOWS IT. ON THE SURFACE AN OLD FRONTAL TROUGH PERSISTS OVER MID OCEAN TONIGHT OUT AHEAD OF THE UPPER VORTEX. A TROUGH WAS MOVING ESE OVER THE NRN PORTION OF THE ATLC WATERS N OF 26N ALONG 65W. FOR DAY 1 BOTH FEATURES ADVANCE EWD ABOUT 5 DEGREES. THE SRN BRANCH OF THE WESTERLIES IS QUITE STRONG WITH A NEW SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE SRN ROCKIES. THE NRN BRANCH IS EQUALLY STRONG BUT CONFINED TO N OF 40N. THE FRONTAL TROUGH REMAINS OVER MID OCEAN FROM 30N50W TO JUST E OF THE LEEWARDS DAY 1. A WEAK FRONT APPROACHES THE N GULF COAST OTHERWISE PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAK OVER THE ENTIRE AREA. DAY 2 FINDS THE MID OCEAN UPPER VORTEX LIFTING AWAY FROM THE AREA. THE SHORTWAVE OVER THE SE MOVES TO 75W AND WEAKENS AND THE NEXT SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO THE SRN PLAINS. ON THE SURFACE PRESSURES LOWER OVER THE SRN PLAINS ENHANCING RETURN FLOW W OF 90W TO 20 KT. THE FRONT OVER THE N GULF COAST STALLS OUT WHILE THE MID OCEAN FRONTAL TROUGH WEAKENS. ALL AREA WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS. OUTLOOK PERIOD... SYSTEMS WEAKEN DAY 3 AS THE SRN BRANCH TAKES ON MORE OF A WLY ZONAL FLOW. ONE SHORTAVE MOVES TO 60W AND THE SECOND ONE TO 85W. A LARGE UPPER TROUGH IS OVER THE NE U.S. DAY 3. WEAK FRONTAL WAVES RIPPLE ALONG THE STATIONARY FRONT ALONG THE N GULF COAST DAY 3 MAINTAINING A MODERATE SLY FLOW OVER THE GULF. THE ATLC RIDGE TRIES TO ESTABLISH ITSELF WITH IT'S AXIS EXTENDING WSW OVER THE NRN BAHAMAS AND S FL. THIS WILL STRENGTHEN TRADES S OF 18N A BIT. ONE SHORTWAVE MOVES TO 55W WHILE THE SECOND ONE TAPS SOME ENERGY FROM THE NRN BRANCH WHILE IT MOVES TO 80W. WEAK LOW PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE SE U.S. DAY 4 MAINTAINING MODERATE SLY WINDS OVER THE ATLC W OF 75W. ATLC RIDGE SLOWLY STRENGTHENING AS SUMMER APPROACHES. AXIS ALONG 25N INTO THE WRN BAHAMAS WILL MAINTAIN MODERATE TRADES S OF 18N. ONE WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVES TO MID OCEAN DAY 5 ALONG 50W THE SECOND STRONGER SHORTWAVE BEGINS TO LIFT NE OVER THE MID ATLC AREA. A STRONG ZONAL FLOW LOWERS SURFACE PRESSURES OVER THE SRN PLAINS DAY 5 WITH THE RETURN FLOW W OF 90W PICKING UP ABIT. THE ATLC RIDGE HANGS ON OVER MID OCEAN WITH IT'S AXIS EXTENDING WSW OVER S FL INTO THE CENTRAL GULF. LITTLE CHANGE TO OVERALL WINDS. WARNINGS... ATLANTIC... NONE. CARIBBEAN... NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. FORECASTER RRG