000
AGXX40 KNHC 040453
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION   
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 
130 AM EDT THU MAY 04 2006

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND 
SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W.

LARGE UPPER VORTEX OFF MID ATLC COAST TONIGHT MOVING EWD 
ACCORDING TO THE LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. STRONG WESTERLIES 
OVER SRN US DIVE SE AROUND UPPER VORTEX. ON THE SURFACE A 
WEAKENING COLD FRONT WAS E OF 55W. A 1019 MB OLD POLAR HIGH WAS 
OVER THE ERN GULF RIDGING E OVER THE BAHAMAS. 

FAIRLY STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH ROTATES AROUND THE S SIDE OF THE 
UPPER VORTEX DAY 1 OVER ATLC WATERS S OF 30N BETWEEN 60W AND 
65W. A RELATED SURFACE TROUGH WITH WINDS OF 20 KT MOVES OVER 
ATLC WATERS  N OF 28N BETWEEN 60W AND 70W DAY 1. LITTLE CHANGE 
TO THE HIGH OVER THE ERN GULF. GULF AND CARIB WINDS MOSTLY LIGHT 
TO MODERATE. ATLC RIDGE OVER MID OCEAN E OF 50W.

UPPER VORTEX LIFTS NE DAY 2 ALONG 55W. MOSTLY STRONG ZONAL FLOW 
S OF 40N. MORE SHORTWAVES DROPPING SE OVER GREATLAKES. THE 
SURFACE GULF HIGH PRESSURE WEAKENS WITH A RIDGE AXIS ALONG 27N. 
OLD FRONT OVER ATLC STATIONARY FROM 30N50W TO 20N60W. MOST ALL 
AREAS WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS DAY 2. 

OUTLOOK PERIOD...

UPPER TROUGH DEEPENING OVER ERN GREATLAKES LOWERS MID LEVEL 
HEIGHTS INTO OUR REGION BETWEEN 70W AND 80W DAY 3. A WEAK FRONT 
MOVES OFF THE SE COAST WITH WINDS OF 20 KT. OLD POLAR HIGH MOVES 
EWD TO NEAR 27N63W WITH STATIONARY FRONT DRIFTING E. RETURN FLOW 
OVER WRN GULF INCREASES AS PRESSURE ALONG MX COAST DECREASES.  
CARIB WINDS MOSTLY LIGHT TO MODERATE. 

GREATLAKES TROUGH SWINGS EWD DAY 4 WHILE A SHORTWAVE IN THE 
WESTERLIES DRIVES EWD ALONG 60W. OLD COLD FRONT OFF SE COAST 
RUNS OUT OF GAS AND WINDS BECOME LIGHT. FRONT HANGS BACK ALONG 
GULF COAST DAY 4. RETURN FLOW OVER W GULF WEAKENS DAY 4. HIGH 
PRESSURE OVER ATLC STRENGTHENING SOME DAY 4 WILL INCREASE TRADES 
S OF 18N OVER CARIB TO 20 KT.

DAY 5 FINDS SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER ATLC WATERS ALONG 55W S OF 
30N. ZONAL FLOW REMAINS STRONG WITH WEAK IMPULSES MOVING E. WEAK 
LOW DEVELOPS ON OLD FRONT OFF SE COAST BUT WINDS REMAIN LIGHT. 
FRONT DRIFTS S OVER NRN GULF. HIGH PRESSURE OVER ATLC MOVES TO 
NEAR 28N60W BUT TRADES REMAIN LIGHT TO MODERATE S OF 
17N..REMAINDER OF AREA MOSTLY LIGHT WINDS.

WARNINGS...
ATLANTIC...
NONE.  

CARIBBEAN...
NONE.

GULF OF MEXICO...
NONE.

FORECASTER RRG