000
AGXX40 KNHC 031709
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION   
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 
115 PM EDT WED MAY 03 2006

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND 
SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W.

UPPER LEVELS...
WITH BROAD TROUGH PREVIOUSLY ACROSS SW N ATLC MOVING E OF AREA 
WIND FLOW BECOMES QUASI ZONAL WITH LITTLE CHANGE EXPECTED TILL 
OUTLOOK PERIOD WHEN WEAK SHORTWAVE NOW OVER TEXAS APPROACHES  
CONUS SE COAST.  PLENTY OF MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH 
SHORTWAVE...BUT WELL ANCHORED UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER CONTROLLING 
AREA NOT LIKELY TO ALLOW TOO MUCH INTRUSION INTO FORECAST 
WATERS.  VERY DRY AIR MASS DUE TO MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE 
ALOFT WOULD PREVENT DEEP CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT.  SWATH OF 
TROPICAL MOISTURE ADVECTED FROM E PAC ACROSS YUCATAN PENINSULA 
AND BAY OF CAMPECHE DISSIPATE AS IT MOVES OVER SRN HALF OF GULF 
OF MEXICO OR NW CARIBBEAN.  ONLY MOISTURE AVAILABLE IS OVER 
CARIBBEAN SEA S OF 15N E OF 75W. 

AT THE SURFACE...
HIGH PRES CENTER SITS OVER FLORIDA FOR NEXT THREE DAYS 
CURTAILING ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER FROM AFFECTING AREA.  WINDS 
ALREADY HALF OF SPEED OF PREVIOUS 48 HRS BUT SWELLS LINGER 
LONGER A TRAINS REACH GREATER ANTILLES ISLAND CHAIN.  GULF OF 
MEXICO RETURN FLOW EVIDENT ON SCAT PASS AHEAD OF WEAK TROUGH 
APPROACHING TEXAS SE COAST.  OTHERWISE GULF REMAIN VERY TAME.

NW CORNER OF ATLC FORECAST AREA WILL SEE INCREASE IN SW FLOW BUT 
SHOULD NOT GET OVER 20 KT TILL VERY LATE IN PERIOD.   

CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL ATLANTIC TRADES LOWER THAN NORMAL WITH 
LITTLE CHANGE THROUGH SUN.  STRONGEST WINDS NEAR COAST OF 
COLOMBIA.

WARNINGS...
ATLANTIC...
NONE.  

CARIBBEAN...
NONE.

GULF OF MEXICO...
NONE.

FORECASTER  WALLY BARNES