000 AGXX40 KNHC 011713 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 130 PM EDT MON MAY 01 2006 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. DEEP LAYER CYCLONIC VORTEX AT 31N64W LIFTING NE THROUGH TONIGHT AS NEGATIVELY TILTED UPPER TROUGH WEAKENS AND FOLLOWS IT NE. SHARP RIDGE WITH AXIS ALONG 50W COMBINES TO CAUSE MODERATE TO STRONG DIFFLUENCE ALOFT AND ENHANCE DEEP CONVECTION N OF 23N FROM 55W TO 60W. MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WITH AXIS ALONG 75W MOVING E PRODUCING MODERATE SUBSIDENCE ACROSS MOST OF SW N ATLC AND ENTIRE CARIBBEAN BASIN. SUBTROPICAL JET STREAM BRINGS IN TROPICAL MOISTURE FROM E PAC ON ITS UPSTREAM SIDE WITH 70 KT CORE. LITTLE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH INTRUSION AS SURFACE TROUGH IN CENTRAL GULF HAS WEAKENED SIGNIFICANTLY AND LACK UPLIFTING POWER. SECOND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ENTERS NW GULF OF MEXICO WITH MORE DRY AIR INTO FORECAST WATERS JUST NW OF JET. QUASI ZONAL WLY FLOW UPSTREAM FROM TROUGH MAKES IT DIFFICULT FOR FRONTOGENESIS TO THREATEN NW GULF NEXT 48-72 HRS. AT THE SURFACE...COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH DEEP LAYER VORTEX HAS WEAKENED SUBSTANTIALLY AND CAA PREVIOUSLY PRESENT IS NOW ABSENT FROM EQUATION. SYSTEM SHOULD CONTINUE E SLOWLY AND OUT OF FORECAST WATERS WITHIN NEXT 24 HRS. GULF OF MEXICO COLD FRONT HAS WEAKENED INTO OBLIVION AND IS NOW REPRESENTED IN ANALYSIS AS WEAK TROUGH ABOUT TO DISSIPATE WITHIN NEXT 12 HRS. CONVECTION HAS DECREASED SIGNIFICANTLY NOT EXPECTED TO REGENERATE. WARNINGS... ATLANTIC... NONE. CARIBBEAN... NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. FORECASTER WALLY BARNES