000 AGXX40 KNHC 240459 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 130 AM EDT MON APR 24 2006 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. A UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS ALONG 70W MOVING E 25 KT TONIGHT AND IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE GFS MODEL. UPPER RIDGE OVER THE GULF WAS BUILDING NWD OVER THE PLAINS ACTING AS A BLOCK TO DISTURBANCES IN THE SRN BRANCH OF THE WESTERLIES. NRN BRANCH SITLL ACTIVE WITH STRONG SHORTWAVES MOVING INTO THE NE US BUT STAYING N OF OUR REGION. ON THE SURFACE MAP TONIGHT AN OLD STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDED FROM 24N50W TO 20N65W WITH ONLY A BAND OF CLOUDS WITH IT. A 1025 MB HIGH WAS NEAR 33N63W. A SECOND FRONT OVER CENTRAL FL HAS BECOME STATIONARY WITH A 1017 MB HIGH OVER THE NE GULF. DAY 1 FINDS THE SHORTWAVE MOVING TO 65W AND WEAKENING. A NEW SHORTWAVE CAN BE SEEN MOVING OUT OF THE SRN ROCKIES AND WILL TRY TO NAVIGATE OVER THE STRONG UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CENTER OF THE COUNTRY. ON THE SURFACE THE FL FRONT WASHES OUT. THE 1025 MB HIGH WEAKENS TO 1022 MB AND MOVES TO 32N60W. SOME RETURN FLOW SETS UP W OF 90W TO 20 KT. CARIB WINDS MOSTLY LIGHT TO MODERATE. THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES TO 60W DAY 2 AND WEAKENS FURTHER..ALTHOUGH THERE IS A STRONG SHORTWAVE IN THE NRN BRANCH THAT COULD COME TO IT'S AID. IT COULD PHASE IN WITH THE SRN SHORTWAVE. THE UPPER RIDGE FLATTENS OUT SOME DAY 2 AS A SHORTWAVE INTERS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE HIGH OVER THE ATLC MOVES TO 22N50W WITH A CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 1022 MB. A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE HIGH BACK ACROSS CENTRAL FL INTO THE CENTRAL GULF. WEAK RETURN FLOW CONTINUES DAY 2 W OF 90W. CARIB WINDS REMAIN LIGHT TO MODERATE. OUTLOOK PERIOD... DAY 3 FINDS THE MID ATLC SHORTWAVE GAINING MORE AMPLITUDE BUT NOT FROM THE NRN SHORTWAVE. NOT SURE WHY IT DOES THIS. THE GULF UPPER RIDGE FLATTENS FURTHER DAY 3 AS ENERGY DROPS SE INTO THE TN VALLEY. THIS ALLOWS A COLD FRONT TO MOVE OUT OF THE PLAINS DAY 3 TO THE NW GULF COAST WITH WINDS TO 20 KT. THE OLD ATLC RIDGE 1022 MB MOVES TO NEAR 33N45W DAY 3 WITH IT'S AXIS BACK TO S FL AND ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF. N OF 20N WINDS LIGHT. S OF 20N MOSTLY LIGHT TO MODERATE TRADES. THE MID ATLC SHORTWAVE TROUGH CONTINUES TO GAIN AMPLITUDE AND THE REASON BECOMES MORE EVIDENT. THE UPPER FLOW IS PARTIALLY BLOCKED BY A LARGE UPPER TROUGH WHILE THE UPPER FLOW BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE IS QUITE ABIT STRONGER. IN ADDITION THE NRN BRANCH DIVES SE LOWERING HEIGHTS W OF 70W AND PUMPING A RIDGE JUST W OF THE SHORTWAVE. THE GULF COLD FRONT MOVES E OF FL DAY 4 WITH WINDS TO 20 KT. A 1021 MB HIGH FOLLOWS OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY. THE OLD ATLC RIDGE EXTENDS BACK OVER THE NRN BAHAMAS AND IS SLOWLY MOVING EWD DAY 4. WINDS INCREASE SOME ALL AREAS. THE CENTRAL ATLC SHORTWAVE GETS ABSORBED DAY 5 BY THE ERN ATLC TROUGH WHILE THE UPPER RIDGE FOLLOWING IT CUTS OFF OVER MID OCEAN. UPPER TROUGHING DEEPENS DAY 5 OFF THE SE COAST WHICH SHOULD MAKE THINGS INTERESTING. WEAK LOW PRESSURE FORMS NEAR 31N72W ON THE FRONT BUT STRONGEST WINDS ARE N OF THE AREA. W OF THE FRONT N WINDS TO 20 KT COULD AFFECT THE NRN BAHAMAS DAY 5. THE FOLLOWING HIGH WEAKENS TO 1020 MB AS IT MOVES TO THE NE GULF. THE ATLC RIDGE STRENGTHENS OVER MID OCEAN DAY 5 E OF 60W WHICH ALSO INCREASES THE ELY WINDS E OF 60W TO 20 TO 25 KT. CARIB WINDS MOSTLY LIGHT TO MODERATE DUE TO A WEAKENED PRESSURE GRADIENT. WARNINGS... ATLANTIC... NONE. CARIBBEAN... NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. FORECASTER RRG