000 AGXX40 KNHC 220459 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 130 AM EDT SAT APR 22 2006 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. UPPER RIDGE ALONG 40W WITH A LARGE UPPER TROUGH ALONG 55W. AN OPEN RIDGE ALONG 75W BEING FOLLOWED BY A SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALONG 90W TONIGHT. ON THE SURFACE AN OLD ATLC FRONT WAS DISSIPATING ALONG 50W. A POLAR HIGH 1023 MB WAS OFF THE SE COAST DRIFTING E AND A FRONT OVER MS/LA WAS MOVING E SLOWLY. THE MID ATLC UPPER VORTEX MOVES LITTLE..BLOCKED BY THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE E ATLC. THE SHORTWAVE OVER THE DEEP S CONTINUES EWD TO 82W DAY 1. THE POLAR HIGH 1024 MB MOVES TO NEAR 32N68W DAY 1 WITH SLY WINDS W OF 75W INCREASING AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONT TO 20 TO 25 KT. CARIB WINDS INCREASE 20 TO 25 KT AS EXPECTED WITH THE STRENGTHENING OF THE POLAR HIGH. GULF WINDS REMAIN LIGHT. A PROGRESSIVE PATTERN WITH THE MID OCEAN VORTEX MOVING SLOWLY EWD TO 50W. ANOTHER DEEP VORTEX OVER THE GREAT LAKES IS MOVING SLOWLY EWD. THE SHORTWAVE OVER THE SE MOVES TO 75W DAY 2 AS A UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE W GULF NWD OVER THE PLAINS. THE OLD POLAR HIGH 1024 MB CONTINUES EWD TO NEAR 33N63W RELAXING THE GRADIENT OVER THE CARIB AND ATLC W OF 60W. THE FRONT OFF THE NE FL COAST STALLS OUT DAY 2. WEAK HIGH 1019 MB OVER THE NE GULF WITH LIGHT WINDS N OF 20N W OF 75W. OUTLOOK PERIOD... WLY UPPER FLOW BECOMING MORE PRONOUNCED DAY 3 AS SYSTEMS WEAKEN. THE OLD SHORTWAVE MOVES TO NEAR 67W. A NEW SURGE OF COLD AIR BEGINS TO DROP S OVER THE NRN PLAINS KICKING OUT THE OLD VORTEX OVER THE GREAT LAKES. WITH THE ZONAL FLOW ALOFT THE OLD POLAR HIGH BECOMES MORE ELONGATED E/W. A 1023 MB CENTER WILL BE NEAR 33N58W DAY 3 WITH AN AXIS BACK ALONG 27N INTO THE ERN GULF. RETURN FLOW INCREASES A BIT W OF 95W. CARIB WINDS 20 TO 25 KT S OF 15N. WLY FLOW STRENGTHENS ALOFT DAY 4. SHORTWAVE WEAKENING ALONG 60W WHILE UPPER RIDGE OVER MID US FLATTENS OUT. STRONG UPPER TROUGH SWEEPS EWD OVER GREAT LAKES. ON THE SURFACE THE OLD POLAR HIGH WEAKENS FURTHER WITH ONLY A WEAK RIDGE BACK TO THE CENTRAL GULF EVIDENT DAY 4. MOST WINDS LIGHT TO MODERATE N OF 18N WHILE CARIB WINDS S OF 18N E OF 80W TO 20 KT. SRN BRANCH OF WESTERLIES S OF 35N MOSTLY ZONAL WITH SHORTWAVE MOVING E TO NEAR 50W. NRN BRANCH ROTATING ABOUT DEEP UPPER TROUGH SWEEP EWD OFF NE COAST DAY 5. ATLC RIDGE WEAKENS FURTHER DAY 5 WHILE A TROUGH DEVELOPS ALONG 55W AS A RESULT OF THE SHORTWAVE ALOFT. WEAK FRONT MOVES TO SE US DAY 5 AND INTO NW GULF WITH NE WINDS 15 KT. CARIB WINDS TO 20 KT S OF 17N E OF 80W. WARNINGS... ATLANTIC... NONE. CARIBBEAN... NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. FORECASTER RRG