000
AGXX40 KNHC 150511
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION   
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 
130 AM EDT SAT APR 15 2006

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND 
SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W.

SERIES OF TWO SHORTWAVES MOVING OVER THE SW ATLC TONIGHT. ONE N 
OF THE OTHER. THE SRN SHORTWAVE WAS OVER THE SE BAHAMAS MOVING 
E. A STRONG UPPER RIDGE WAS OVER THE GULF RIDGING NWD OVER THE 
PLAINS. ON THE SURFACE A WEAK LOW WAS NE OF PUERTO RICO TONIGHT 
MOVING NE ALONG A FRONTAL TROUGH. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WAS OVER 
THE ERN GULF. 

LOOK FOR THE SHORTWAVE TO CONTINUE EWD TO ALONG 65W WITH THE 
OVERALL UPPER FLOW BECOMING MORE ZONAL WITH TIME. ON THE SURFACE 
THE ATLC LOW MOVES NE TO 28N52W WITH WINDS TO 25 KT. WEAK HIGH 
PRESSURE MOVES SLOWLY EWD ALONG 27N WITH RETURN FLOW INCREASING 
W OF 95W DAY 1. CARIB WINDS MOSTLY LIGHT TO MODERATE. 

DAY 2 FINDS THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING TO 60W AND FLATTENING 
OUT AS THE WESTERLIES REMAIN STRONG OVER THE NRN PORTION OF THE 
REGION. LOW PRESSURE MOVES TO 29N47W WITH WINDS TO 25 KT. WEAK 
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALONG 24N OVER BAHAMAS DAY 2. PRESSURE 
GRADIENT TIGHTENS N OF RIDGE OVER ATLC WITH SW WINDS INCREASING 
20 TO 25 KT. RETURN FLOW W OF 90W INCREASES TO 20 KT. CARIB 
WINDS REMAIN LIGHT TO MODERATE. 

OUTLOOK PERIOD...

A LARGE UPPER VORTEX OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES DAY 3 BEGINS TO 
LOWER MID LEVEL HEIGHTS OVER THE SW ATLC. UPPER RIDGE HOLDS ON 
OVER GULF RIDGING NWD ALONG 90W. ON THE SURFACE THE WEAK RIDGE 
REMAINS ALONG 23N DAY 3. SW WINDS N OF THE RIDGE REMAIN GUSTY TO 
25 KT W OF 60W. RETURN FLOW WEAKENS SOME AS THE RIDGE WORKS IT'S 
WAY TO MID GULF. CARIB WINDS MOSTLY LIGHT TO MODERATE. 

UPPER RIDGE BUILDS NWD ALONG 90W DAY 4 ALLOWING THE UPPER VORTEX 
TO WORK IT'S WAY SWD ALONG 70W WITH A NEW SUPPLY OF COLD AIR. 
THIS WILL CONTINUE TO LOWER HEIGHTS OVER THE SW ATLC DAY 4 W OF 
60W. ON THE SURFACE A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE RAPIDLY SWD IN 
RESPONSE TO THE UPPER PATTERN CHANGE. WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT 
WILL INCREASE TO 25 TO 30 KT AS LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS NEAR 
33N63W. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION WITH 
MOSTLY LIGHT WINDS. 

DAY 5 FINDS THE STRONG PUSH OF COLD AIR ALOFT DIVING SWD W OF 
60W WITH STRONG HEIGHT FALLS..IMPRESSIVE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. 
UPPER RIDGING REMAINS OVER THE GULF NWD ALONG 90W. THE COLD 
FRONT MOVES TO THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS DAY 5 WITH A POLAR AIRMASS 
FOLLOWING BEHIND. ATLC WINDS WILL BE MOSTLY 20 KT W OF 50W. GULF 
WINDS W OF 90W INCREASE SOME TO 20 KT WHILE CARIB WINDS REMAIN 
MOSTLY LIGHT. 
       
WARNINGS...

ATLANTIC...
NONE.

CARIBBEAN...
NONE.

GULF OF MEXICO...
NONE.

FORECASTER RRG