000 AGXX40 KNHC 131717 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 115 PM EDT WED APR 12 2006 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. SW N ATLC... STATIONARY FRONT REMAINS ACROSS THE SW N ATLC WATERS. THE FRONT EXTENDS FROM 26N65W TO A WEAK LOW PRES NEAR THE EXTREME SE BAHAMAS...WITH TROUGH TRAILING TO WINDWARD PASSAGE. STRONG HIGH PRES RIDGE TO THE N IS PRODUCING A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE W ATLC. MORNING SHIP OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT A LARGE AREA OF 25-30 KT WINDS CONTINUE TO BLOW. WITH THE RIDGE A LITTLE FARTHER SOUTH TODAY...THE WINDS HAVE DECREASED OFF THE NE FLORIDA COAST...BUT NELY SWELLS CONTINUE TO IMPACT THIS AREA. NWW3 SEAS STILL RUNNING A FEW FEET LOWER THAN SHIP OBSERVATIONS AND ADJUSTED MORNING FORECAST ACCORDINGLY. NUMERICAL MODELS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON TRACK LOW ENE DURING THE NEXT 36-48 HOURS. THERE ARE SOME POSSIBLE CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK ISSUES IN THE GFS...BUT SINCE ALL MODELS TRACK WEAK LOW ENE...THIS SCENARIO SEEMS PLAUSIBLE...ESPECIALLY WITH UPPER LOW/TROUGH OVER CUBA/BAHAMAS SLOWLY WEAKENING AND MOVING NEWD. THIS WILL KEEP STRONGER NE WINDS ACROSS AREAS BETWEEN THE FRONT AND ABOUT 28N THROUGH MUCH OF FRI. WITH RIDGE SINKING SOUTH AND LOW DEPARTING WINDS WILL FINALLY DECREASE ALL AREAS FRI NIGHT/SAT. HOWEVER...SWLY WINDS BECOME MODERATE SAT AFTERNOON OVER THE FAR NRN PORTION. IN THE EXTENDED RANGE...COUPLE OF NEW SYSTEMS DEVELOP OFF THE U.S. EAST COAST SUN AND MON. THEY WILL PRODUCE MODERATE TO STRONG SW-W WINDS ACROSS THE N PORTIONS. TRAILING FRONT FROM SECOND LOW IS FORECAST TO DROP SOUTHWARD INTO THE AREA TUE. SW-W WINDS OVER 20-25 KT EXPECTED AHEAD OF THIS FRONT...WHILE WINDS BECOME MODERATE NLY BEHIND. GULF OF MEXICO... FETCH OF MODERATE TO STRONG NE WINDS CONTINUES ACROSS THE SE GULF AND STRAITS OF FLORIDA. WINDS HAVE DECREASED OTHER AREAS WITH GENERALLY NE-E WINDS 10-15 KT. NWW3 LIKELY MUCH TOO LOW ON SEAS ACROSS THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA AS NE WINDS OPPOSING GULF STREAM CURRENT. WINDS OVER THE SE GULF FORECAST TO SLOWLY DECREASE LATE TONIGHT/FRI...FINALLY BECOMING LIGHT SAT. RIDGE SHIFTS EASTWARD ACROSS FLORIDA OVER THE WEEKEND ALLOWING MODERATE RETURN SLY FLOW TO DEVELOP OVER THE W GULF THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. WINDS E OF 90W TO REMAIN LIGHT DURING THE ENTIRE EXTENDED PERIOD. CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL N ATLC... NELY WINDS OF 15-20 KT DETECTED IN QUIKSCAT DATA THIS MORNING ACROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN. THIS WAS WELL FORECAST BY THE GFS AND THESE WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRI. AREA OF MODERATE WINDS WILL THEN BE CONFINED TO THE S COAST OF CUBA EARLY SAT. WINDS THEN FORECAST TO BECOME LIGHT OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN. BETWEEN 70W AND 80W WINDS EXCEPTIONALLY LIGHT WITH NO ATLC RIDGE N OF THIS AREA. QUIKSCAT INDICATED THAT WINDS WERE 10 KT OR LESS. WINDS TO INCREASE TO 10-15 KT SUN-TUE WITH A SMALL AREA OF 15-20 KT WINDS POSSIBLE ALONG THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA. OVER THE CARIBBEAN E OF 70W...MODERATE E-SE WINDS BLOWING NEAR THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA. THIS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH FRI MORNING...WITH A GRADUALLY DECREASE IN WINDS INTO THE WEEKEND. WINDS OVER THE TROPICAL ATLC TO DECREASE AS ATLC RIDGE WEAKENS DUE TO LOW MOVING ENE. TRAILING TROUGH IS NOW FORECAST TO ENTER THE N PORTION SAT-MON. THIS WILL SHIFT WINDS FROM SLY TO NELY AFTER TROUGH PASSAGE. WINDS STAY MAINLY 15 KT OR LESS DURING THE EXTEND PERIOD. WARNINGS... ATLANTIC... NONE. CARIBBEAN... NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. FORECASTER BROWN