000 AGXX40 KNHC 110553 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 155 AM EDT TUE APR 11 2006 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. SW N ATLC... COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM JUST S OF BERMUDA THROUGH 30N65W BECOMING STATIONARY FROM 27N71W TO THE FLORIDA STRAITS WITH STRONG HIGH PRESS IN PLACE OVER THE MID ATLC REGION HAS ALREADY RESULTED IN STRONG NE WINDS N OF THE FRONT. BUOYS 41009 AND 41010 HAVE BEEN REPORTING 8 FT SEAS PAST SEVERAL HOURS. SPECTRAL WAVE DATA ALSO INDICATES LONG FETCH SWELLS OF 10-12 SEC PERIOD ALREADY IN PLACE AT BUOYS 41012 AND 41009. FRONT REMAINS STATIONARY OR SAGS SLOWLY SWD THROUGH LATE WED AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EWD OVER THE ATLC. THE RESULTANT GRADIENT IS AT ITS STRONGEST THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH NE 20-30 KT WINDS...THEN SLOWLY RELAXES INTO WED NIGHT WITH 20-25 KT WINDS CONFINED TO WITHIN 120 NM N OF THE FRONT. NWW3 ONLY BUILDS SEAS TO 11 FT HOWEVER GIVEN LONG FETCH AGAINST THE GULF STREAM WILL GO SLIGHTLY HIGHER AND INDICATE 12-13 FT SEAS. OUTLOOK...PORTION OF HIGH PRESS SETTLES SWD INTO THE AREA LATE THU THROUGH SAT WITH GRADIENT RELAXING FURTHER. NE WINDS 20+ KT CONFINED TO THE BAHAMAS/FL E COAST THU INTO FRI WITH NE 10-15 KT ELSEWHERE. AS HIGH PRESS DROPS FURTHER S SAT...VARIABLE WINDS BECOME WSWLY 15-20 KT ALONG 30N. GULF OF MEXICO... FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS SAGGED S OF THE GULF TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESS CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO THE ENTIRE AREA. ELY GRADIENT FROM STRONG HIGH PRESS OVER THE MID ATLC REGION IS FILTERING INTO THE GULF E OF 85W WITH STEADY 20-25 KT WINDS AT BUOY 42036 IN THE FAR NE GULF. E TO SE WINDS OF 10-15 KT ARE INDICATED ELSEWHERE WITH RETURN FLOW IN EARNEST ALONG THE TEXAS COAST. SAME GENERAL PATTERN EXPECTED INTO WED NIGHT. ONLY FCST PROBLEM WILL BE HOW HIGH DO THE SEAS GET IN THE FL STRAITS WITH FUNNELING NE WINDS. CURRENT THINKING IS SEAS TO 10 FT THROUGH WED NIGHT. OUTLOOK...WRN EXTENT OF MID ATLC HIGH PRESS SAGS SWD ACROSS THE NRN GULF THU AND FRI...THEN E OF THE AREA SAT. NE WINDS DIMINISH TO 10-15 KT MOST AREAS THU...VEER MORE ELY FRI AND THEN SE TO S 10-15 KT SAT...INCREASING TO 20 KT ALONG THE TEXAS COAST BY LATE SAT. CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL N ATLC... SUPPRESSED ATLC RIDGE IS ONLY PRODUCING LIGHT TO MODERATE TRADES OVER THE CARIBBEAN WITH 20 KT WINDS CONFINED TO THE FAR SW CARIBBEAN. THESE LIGHTER THAN NORMAL TRADES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD...THEN WEAKEN FURTHER FROM THU THROUGH SAT. AS IN THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...18 UTC GFS ENSEMBLE RUN CLEARS THE ENTIRE AREA OF ANY 20 KT OR GREATER WINDS IN THE OUTLOOK PERIOD. SEAS GENERALLY IN LINE WITH THE NWW3. WARNINGS... ATLANTIC... NONE. CARIBBEAN... NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. FORECASTER COBB