000 AGXX40 KNHC 101734 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 135 PM EDT MON APR 10 2006 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. SW N ATLC... FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS NOW CREEPING ACROSS THE W ATLC WATERS EXTENDING ROUGHLY FROM BERMUDA TO THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. STRONG HIGH PRES HAS ALREADY BEGUN TO BUILD IN N OF THE FRONT WHICH HAS INCREASED NELY WINDS TO THE 20-25 KT RANGE. SEAS HAVE BEEN A LITTLE SLOW TO RESPOND JUST E OF FLORIDA. BUOY 41010 IS REPORTING 7 FT WHILE THE NWW3 IS SHOWING 8 FT...AND EVEN BUOY 41002 JUST N OF THE AREA IS ONLY REPORTING 7 FT WHILE THE NWW3 SHOWS UP TO 9 FT. STILL EXPECT SEAS TO BUILD BEGINNING TONIGHT AND LASTING THROUGH WED...ESPECIALLY WITHIN THE GULF STREAM...AS WINDS INCREASE POTENTIALLY TO 30 KT IN THE GRADIENT. NWW3 IS SHOWING MAXIMUM SEAS OF 12 FT BY TUE EVENING...SO CURRENT FORECAST OF 14 FT IN THE GULF STREAM LOOKS GOOD. WINDS BEGIN TO WEAKEN LATE WED INTO THU WITH A RIDGE SLIDING INTO THE REGION FRI. SEAS SUBSIDE TO 6-7 FT E OF THE BAHAMAS WITH ONLY SOME RESIDUAL SWELL. WINDS MAY PICK UP FROM THE SW NEAR 31N ON SAT AS THE RIDGE MIGRATES S AND A NEW SYSTEM APPROACHES THE ERN U.S. CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL N ATLC... A SUBDUED ATLC RIDGE IS ONLY PRODUCING LIGHT TO MODERATE TRADES OVER THE CARIBBEAN...AND EVEN THESE ARE EXPECTED TO DECREASE THROUGH THE WEEK. THE 06Z GFS ENSEMBLE RUN PRACTICALLY RIDS THE ENTIRE AREA OF ANY 20 KT OR GREATER WINDS FOR THE THU THROUGH SAT TIME PERIOD AS A WEAK TROUGH DEVELOPS FROM NRN COLOMBIA TO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. THIS FEATURE WILL ALSO PRODUCE ANOMALOUS BUT LIGHT NLY WINDS OVER THE W CARIBBEAN WATERS FOR THAT TIME. CONDITIONS REMAIN CONSTANT E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES WITH E WINDS NEAR 15 KT AND SEAS 6-8 FT IN NE OR E SWELL. GULF OF MEXICO... FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE SE GULF IS STILL SAGGING S AND PRETTY MUCH DISSIPATING...BUT STILL MARKS THE SRN EDGE OF THE STRONGER PRES GRADIENT AND NE WINDS. E GULF BUOYS HAVE BEEN RUNNING AROUND 20 KT FOR MUCH OF THE DAY...AND 42003 HAS EVEN BEEN AS HIGH AS 25 KT. THIS HAS ALLOWED SEAS TO BUILD AS HIGH AS 9 FT. THE NELY FLOW WILL BE MAINTAINED AT 20-25 KT TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY WED AND WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE ENTIRE E AND MIDDLE GULF ZONES. SEAS MAY BUILD TO AS HIGH AS 10 FT WITHIN THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA...ESPECIALLY ON TUE...WITH 25 KT NELY WINDS EXPECTED TO BUCK AGAINST THE CURRENT. PRES GRADIENT WEAKENS OVER THE GULF ON WED WITH DECREASING WINDS...THEN A SFC RIDGE BUILDS ALONG THE N GULF COAST LATE THU/FRI. RIDGE SLIDES E ON SAT AND INCREASES THE RETURN FLOW OVER THE W GULF. WARNINGS... ATLANTIC... NONE. CARIBBEAN... NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. FORECASTER BERG