000 AGXX40 KNHC 100453 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 130 AM EDT MON APR 10 2006 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. MAIN SOURCE OF ENERGY MOVING ENE OFF MID ATLC COAST LEAVING A WEAKENED UPPER TROUGH BACK OVER THE BAHAMAS. AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE NE CARIB NEWD AND A LARGE UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE ERN ATLC E OF 50W. ON THE SURFACE TONIGHT A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM 31N71W TO S FL TO A WEAK 1009 MB LOW IN THE SE GULF THEN SW TO ERN YUCATAN. ATLC HIGH PRES CENTERED JUST N OF THE AREA OVER MID OCEAN. DAY 1 FINDS THE NRN BRANCH OF THE WESTERLIES BEGINNING TO DETACH FROM THE SRN STREAM. UPPER TROUGHING REMAINS STATIONARY OVER THE BAHAMAS AND S FL. A STRONG UPPER RIDGE REMAINS ANCHORED OVER NE MEXICO EXTENDING NE WHILE THE STRONG UPPER TROUGH HANGS ON OVER THE ERN ATLC E OF 50W. ON THE SURFACE DAY 1 THE COLD FRONT WILL DRIFT E TO NEAR 31N66W BACK TO THE WRN BAHAMAS. N OF THE FRONT NE WINDS 20 TO 25 KT WILL CONTINUE WITH NE SWELL BUILDING TO 12 FT. ERN GULF WILL ALSO EXPERIENCE GUSTY NE WINDS TO 20 KT. CARIB WINDS MOSTLY LIGHT TO MODERATE. DETACHMENT OF THE UPPER FLOW BECOMES MORE PRONOUNCED DAY 2 WITH THE UPPER TROUGH HANGING BACK OVER THE BAHAMAS AND CENTRAL CUBA. THE ERN ATLC BLOCKING PATTERN HOLDS FIRM WHILE THE UPPER RIDGE OVER MEXICO REMAINS IN PLACE. ON THE SURFACE A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL PERSIST DAY 2 FROM NEAR 31N62W BACK TO THE NW CARIB. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MID ATLC WILL MAINTAIN GUSTY NE WINDS N OF THE FRONT TO 25 KT. LITTLE CHANGE IN GULF WITH GUSTY WINDS E OF 90W. CARIB WINDS MODERATE S OF 15N E OF 80W. OUTLOOK PERIOD... ONE SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN THE NRN BRANCH WILL BRUSH BY OUR REGION ALONG 60W DAY 3. THE OLD UPPER TROUGH BACK OVER THE BAHAMAS AND CUBA CHANGES LITTLE. THE ERN BLOCKING PATTERN CONTINUES WHILE THE STRONG UPPER RIDGE OVER NE MEXICO FLATTENS OUT N OF 35N. ON THE SURFACE DAY 3 THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRIFTS E TO JUST E OF 60W WHILE HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE MID ATLC SEABOARD MAINTAINS NE AND E WINDS 20 KT N OF 25N W OF 62W INTO THE ERN GULF. SOME SURFACE TROUGHING TRYING TO DEVELOP OVER THE WRN CARIB IN RESPONSE TO THE UPPER TROUGH PERSISTING OVER THE AREA. WITH FLATTENING OF THE UPPER RIDGE OVER MEXICO NRN BRANCH ENERGY BEGINS TO AFFECT OUR REGION DAY 4. THE RESPONSE IS MOVEMENT OF THE UPPER TROUGH OVER CUBA SLOWLY EWD AND THE ERN ATLC BLOCKING TROUGH BEGINS TO MOVE EWD. STILL A FRONTAL TROUGH OVER MID OCEAN ALONG 55W DAY 4 SEPARATING THE ERN ATLC HIGH FROM THE POLAR HIGH THAT HAS BEEN SITTING OFF THE MID ATLC COAST THE PAST FEW DAYS. WINDS W OF 60W DECREASE TO 15 TO 20 KT AND GULF WINDS DECREASE ALSO. CARIB WINDS CONFINED TO S OF 15N E OF 75W. DAY 5 FINDS THE MEXICAN UPPER RIDGE MOVING FURTHER W ALLOWING MORE ENERGY IN THE NRN BRANCH TO MOVE ESE OVER OUR REGION E OF 80W. THIS WEAKENS THE UPPER TROUGH OVER CUBA AND FORCES THE ERN ATLC TROUGH FURTHER E. ON THE SURFACE THE ATLC FRONTAL TROUGH DRIFTS E TO NEAR 50W DAY 5 WHILE THE POLAR AIRMASS FOLLOWING THE TROUGH WEAKENS ALONG 30N. WINDS OVER THE ENTIRE REGION BECOME MOSTLY LIGHT EXCEPT FOR ELY TRADES S OF 18N E OF 60W WHICH WILL REMAIN MODERATE. WARNINGS... ATLANTIC... NONE. CARIBBEAN... NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. FORECASTER RRG