000 AGXX40 KNHC 091756 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 200 PM EDT SUN APR 09 2006 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. SW N ATLC... COLD FRONT IS MAKING ITS WAY SE ACROSS THE NW WATERS...RANGING FROM 31N74W TO NEAR WEST PALM BEACH FLORIDA AS OF 1-2 PM EDT. SW WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT ARE UP TO 20-25 KT MAINLY N OF 28N ALTHOUGH IT LOOKS AS THOUGH THESE WINDS WILL DIMINISH AS THE FRONT BECOMES STATIONARY TONIGHT AND MON. STRONG HIGH PRES IS BUILDING IN BEHIND THE FRONT AND WINDS ARE ALREADY RESPONDING BY INCREASING TO 20-25 KT OFF THE N FLORIDA COAST. EXPECT THESE WINDS TO REMAIN IN THE 20-30 KT RANGE N OF THE FRONT THROUGH WED THEN SOME WEAKENING FOR THU AND FRI. GFS DEVELOPS SOME SORT OF EPHEMERAL AREA OF LOW PRES OVER THE NW BAHAMAS ALONG THE FRONT MON THROUGH WED AND ADJACENT WINDS INCREASE TO GALE FORCE...BUT THERE APPEARS TO BE SOME CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK PROBLEMS...AND THE 12Z GFS ENSEMBLE DOES NOT SHOW ANY GALE PROBABILITIES. TAKING OUT THIS EFFECT...IT APPEARS THE GRADIENT SHOULD STILL BE ABLE TO SUPPORT NE 30 KT JUST N OF THE BOUNDARY. SEAS WILL BE AN ISSUE THROUGH WED...BUILDING TO 9-12 FT IN N/NE SWELL AND POSSIBLY TO 14 FT IN THE GULF STREAM. SEAS BEGIN TO SUBSIDE THU AS WINDS RELAX AND SHOULD BE IN THE 4-6 FT RANGE N OF THE BAHAMAS BY FRI. CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL N ATLC... NO MAJOR PROBLEMS FORESEEN IN THE FORECAST PERIOD. ATLC RIDGE IS WEAKENED BY A COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE W ATLC AND GULF OF MEXICO...AND HAS WEAKENED THE TRADES OVER THE AREA ESPECIALLY THE W CARIBBEAN. HIGHEST WINDS ARE AS USUAL ALONG THE COLOMBIAN COAST BUT REALLY ARE NO MORE THAN 20-25 KT AT THIS TIME. COLD FRONT OVER THE SE GULF MOVES INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN TONIGHT BUT WINDS ONLY SHIFT NW/N AND DO NOT INCREASE MORE THAN TO ABOUT 10 KT. HIGHEST SEAS WILL BE OVER THE TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS WITH MAINLY 6-7 FT NELY SWELLS...AND OFF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA IN THE HIGHER WIND REGIME. GULF OF MEXICO... COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM SW FLORIDA TO N COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...AND HAS CLEARED THROUGH THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. STRONGER PRES GRADIENT IS ALMOST 100 NM NW OF THE ACTUAL FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND WINDS HAVE JUST RECENTLY BEGUN INCREASING TO 20 KT N OF 26N. WINDS WILL BE NELY 20-25 KT OVER THE E/CNTRL GULF TONIGHT THROUGH WED...THEN DECREASE THU AND FRI MUCH LIKE THE SW N ATLC ZONE. SEAS WILL BE FETCH-LIMITED OVER THE E GULF AND SHOULD BUILD TO 6-8 FT...AND LIKELY CLOSER TO 10 FT IN THE GULF STREAM S OF THE FL KEYS. WINDS WILL BE MAINLY ELY 10-15 KT OVER THE W GULF THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH NO MAJOR CONCERNS. WARNINGS... ATLANTIC... NONE. CARIBBEAN... NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. FORECASTER BERG