000 AGXX40 KNHC 070441 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 130 AM EDT FRI APR 07 2006 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. A WELL DEFINED UPPER TROUGH WITH IT'S AXIS ALONG 65W WAS DEPICTED IN THE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY TONIGHT. THE TROUGH WAS MOVING A LITTLE FASTER THAN THE GFS MODEL. A LARGE CLOSED UPPER LOW WAS OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS TONIGHT MOVING ENE. UPPER RIDGING WAS LOCATED ALONG 45W AND 85W. ON THE SURFACE A WEAK COLD FRONT WAS OVER THE ATLC ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH. GUSTY SE WINDS TO 20 KT WERE OCCURING OVER THE WRN GULF. THE UPPER FLOW BEGINS TO FLATTEN OUT DAY 1. THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES TO 55W WHILE THE PLAINS UPPER LOW MOVES INTO THE SRN PLAINS. THE OLD COLD FRONT MOVES TO 53W AND WEAKENS FURTHER. WEAK HIGH PRES 1021 MB MOVES TO NEAR 30N62W MAINTAINING MODERATE ELY TRADES S OF 18N. GUSTY SLY WINDS REMAIN OVER THE GULF AS SURFACE PRESSURES FALL OVER THE SRN PLAINS. THE UPPER TROUGH OVER MID OCEAN PHASES IN WITH A LARGE UPPER LOW FURTHER E. THE TWO CARVE OUT A LARGE TROUGH OVER THE ERN ATLC. SIMILAR PHASING OF UPPER TROUGHS WILL OCCUR DAY 2 OVER THE ERN US AS A FULL LATITUDE TROUGH SETS UP OVER THE ERN US. THE ATLC RIDGE 1022 MB WILL BE NEAR 31N60W WITH AN AXIS BACK TO THE SE GULF. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE TO THE W CENTRAL GULF DAY 2 WITH 20 KT WINDS ON EITHER SIDE. CARIB WINDS REMAIN 20 KT WHILE SW WINDS INCREASE TO 20 KT N OF 28N W OF 75W. OUTLOOK PERIOD... LOOK FOR THE FULL LATITUDE UPPER TROUGH TO MOVE OFF THE ERN SEABOARD DAY 3 WITH THE UPPER FLOW BEHIND THE TROUGH BECOMING MORE WLY. UPPER RIDGING SHIFTS EWD FROM THE NE CARIB NNE. A LARGE UPPER TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE ERN ATLC E OF 50W. ON THE SURFACE THE COLD FRONT MOVES TO NEAR 31N75W BACK TO CENTRAL FL. WEAK HIGH PRES FOLLOWING THE FRONT WILL SUPPORT WINDS TO 20 KT. CARIB WINDS DECREASE SOME AS PRESSURE GRADIENT DECREASES. UPPER TROUGHING REMAINS BETWEEN 60W AND 90W WHILE UPPER RIDGING BUILDS NWD FROM THE WRN GULF NWD. UPPER TROUGH HANGS ON E OF 50W DAY 4. THE COLD FRONT MOVES TO NEAR 31N65W TO CENTRAL BAHAMAS DAY 4. SOME NE WINDS TO 20 KT ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE FRONT AS A LARGE HIGH MOVES TO THE ERN COAST. GULF WINDS MOSTLY LIGHT TO MODERATE DAY 4. CARIB WINDS E OF 80W MOSTLY MODERATE. ENERGY CONTINUES TO SPILL OVER THE UPPER RIDGE ALONG 90W DAY 5 AND CARVE OUT A LARGE UPPER TROUGH ALONG 70W. THE ERN ATLC UPPER TROUGH SHIFTS E WHILE AN OPEN UPPER RIDGE MOVES TO 50W. ON THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENS ALONG THE ATLC SEABOARD MAINTAINING BRISK NE AND E WINDS BETWEEN 70W AND 90W N OF 26N DAY 5. REMAINDER OF GULF MOSTLY LIGHT SE WINDS. CARIB WINDS LIGHT TO MODERATE. WARNINGS... ATLANTIC... NONE. CARIBBEAN... NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. FORECASTER RRG