000
AGXX40 KNHC 060520
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION   
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 
130 AM EDT THU APR 06 2006

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND 
SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W.

A DEEP UPPER TROUGH WAS SWINGING E OFF THE ATLC SEABOARD 
TONIGHT. THE TROUGH EXTENDS WELL INTO OUR REGION ALONG 70W. A 
PERSISTENT UPPER RIDGE WAS HOLDING FIRM OVER THE WRN GULF NWD 
OVER THE GREAT PLAINS. ON THE SURFACE A WEAK COLD FRONT EXTENDED 
FROM 31N67W SW TO THE FL STRAITS TONIGHT. 

FOR DAY 1 THE UPPER TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO LIFT OUT WITH IT'S AXIS 
MOVING TO 65W. OPEN UPPER RIDGES WILL BE ALONG 45W AND 90W. ON 
THE SURFACE THE ATLC FRONT WILL FIZZLE OUT NEAR 31N62W TO 
22N68W. ATLC HIGH 1021 MB NEAR 29N45W WITH A WEAK RIDGE TO 
25N65W. MODERATE RETURN FLOW W OF 90W WHILE CARIB WINDS MOSTLY 
LIGHT EXCEPT MODERATE SW PORTION.

LARGE UPPER TROUGH LIFTS FURTHER NE DAY 2 WITH AXIS MOVING E TO 
55W. ANOTHER STRONG SHORTWAVE DROPPING SWD OVER THE PLAINS WHILE 
THE UPPER RIDGE MOVES TO 75W. SURFACE PRESSURE BEGIN FALLING 
OVER THE PLAINS IN RESPONSE TO THE STRONG SHORTWAVE. ATLC HIGH 
1020 MB OVER CENTRAL OCEAN. WEAK FORMER FRONT NOW ALONG 55W WITH 
SECOND HIGH 1021 MB NEAR 30N62W DAY 2. MODERATE WINDS OVER MUCH 
OF GULF DAY 2. CARIB WINDS PICK UP TO MODERATE LEVELS ALSO.

OUTLOOK PERIOD...

STRONG SHORTWAVES PHASE TOGETHER OVER ERN US DAY 3 WITH AXIS 
ALONG APPALACHIANS SW TO 30N90W. UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM N 
CARIB NE TO 40N50W. LARGE UPPER TROUGH DOMINATES ERN ATLC E OF 
50W. ON THE SURFACE A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL GULF DAY 
3 WITH 20 KT WINDS ON BOTH SIDES OF FRONT. ATLC HIGH 1022 MB 
MOVES TO 32N58W WITH CARIB WINDS MOSTLY MODERATE.

UPPER TROUGH MOVES EWD TO ALONG 70W DAY 4 WITH FLOW BEHIND IT 
BECOMING MORE ZONAL. UPPER RIDGE HOLDS FIRM OVER MID OCEAN WHILE 
LARGE UPPER TROUGH COVERS ERN ATLC. COLD FRONT MOVES TO 31N72W 
BACK ACROSS CENTRAL FL DAY 4. 20 KT WINDS EITHER SIDE OF FRONT N 
OF 28N. GULF WINDS DECREASE AS WELL AS CARIB WINDS. ATLC RIDGE 
WEAKENS AND MOVES NE. 

WHILE ERN ATLC UPPER TROUGH HOLDS FIRM E OF 45W THE UPPER RIDGE 
WEAKENS ALONG 55W. STRONG SHORTWAVE LEAVING AREA ALONG 60W N OF 
35N. A WEAKER SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO SE GULF DAY 5. GFS MODEL 
SHOWS A WEAK SURFACE LOW WITH THIS SHORTWAVE..WHICH I HAVE SEEN 
THIS TIME OF YEAR IN THE PAST. WINDS N OF 27N BETWEEN 70W AND 
90W INCREASE TO 20 KT WITH INCREASE IN PRES GRADIENT. CARIB 
WINDS MOSTLY LIGHT TO MODERATE. GULF SIMILAR.

WARNINGS...

ATLANTIC...
NONE.

CARIBBEAN...
NONE.

GULF OF MEXICO...
NONE.

FORECASTER RRG