000 AGXX40 KNHC 031844 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 245 PM EST MON APR 03 2006 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. SW N ATLC AND TROPICAL N ATLC... WINDS HAVE CONTINUED TO DECEASE OVER THE ENTIRE AREA... PARTICULARLY THE FAR SE PART WHERE TIGHT PRES GRADIENT THE PAST FEW DAYS HAD BEEN KEEPING NE WINDS IN THE MODERATE TO STRONG. HIGH PRES RIDGE EXTENDING ACROSS THE AREA FROM 30N65W TO S FLORIDA WILL SHIFT EASTWARD THROUGH WED AS A COLD FRONT MOVE INTO AREA RELAXING THE PRES GRADIENT. ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA...WINDS ARE RATHER LIGHT (SPEEDS OF 10-15 KT) AS INDICATED BY OBSERVATIONS FROM SHIPS AND BUOYS. THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO A WEAK COLD FRONT DROPPING SE ACROSS THE SE U.S. ELSEWHERE WIND DIRECTION IS PRIMARILY FROM THE NE-E EXCEPT SE-S N OF 25N W OF 77W. SEAS ARE RUNNING 2-4 FT N OF 25N W OF 77W AND ABOUT 4-7 FT ACROSS REMAINDER OF AREA WHICH AGAIN IS PRETTY CLOSE TO NWW3 VALUES. GLOBAL MODELS AGREE THAT A STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE NW PART OF THE AREA LATE TONIGHT...THEN REACH A PSN FROM 31N72W TO 28N73W AND WEAKENING TO S FLORIDA TUE NIGHT INTO WED MORNING. FRONT WILL FURTHER WEAKEN FROM ABOUT 29N65W TO NEAR E CUBA THU AND BECOME DIFFUSE E OF AREA FRI. HIGH PRES WILL BECAME CENTERED NEAR 28N65W BY SAT AFTERNOON. SW WINDS OF 15-20 KT WILL PRECEDE THE FRONT THROUGH TUE EVENING WITH NLY WINDS OF 10-15 KT BEHIND THE FRONT EXCEPT N OF 30N WHERE WINDS MAY REACH SPEEDS OF 15-20 KT TUE MORNING AS SUGGESTED BY THE NAM AND NOGAPS. LATEST GFS BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS NOT AS STRONG WITH WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT AS IN PREVIOUS RUNS. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT ON EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT THU AS WEAK HIGH PRES BECOMES SETTLED OVER THE FAR NW PORTION OF THE SW N ATLC (ZONE 088). TROUGH THAT HAD BEEN AFFECTING THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE TROPICAL N ATLC ZONE (087) THE PAST FEW DAYS HAS BECOME DIFFUSE. NE WINDS OF 20 KT HAVE DECREASED TO 10-15 KT WITH LINGERING NE SWELL UP TO 8 FT ALONG THE NORTHERN PART OF THE TROPICAL N ATLC AND SEAS UP TO 6 FT ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE TROPICAL N ATLC. LIGHT ELY TRADES WILL BE PREVAIL ACROSS THE TROPICAL N ATLC THROUGH SAT. CARIBBEAN... TRADES ARE RATHER LIGHT...EXCEPT FOR THE TYPICAL AREA OF NE 20-25 KT WINDS JUST OFF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. AS HIGH PRES OVER THE ATLC SHIFTS E...THESE NE WINDS OF 20-25 KT WILL DECREASE TO 15-20 KT WED THROUGH FRI THEN INCREASE AGAIN TO 20-25 KT SAT WITH SEAS POSSIBLY UP TO 9 FT NEAR THE COLOMBIAN COAST. GULF OF MEXICO... ATLC HIGH PRES ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF WILL SHIFT S TO ALONG 26N TUE AND WED. MODELS AGAIN CONTINUE IN CLOSE AGREEMENT THAT A COLD FRONT WILL DROP S INTO THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN GULF TONIGHT INTO TUE MORNING. GFS/NAM/EUROPEAN AND NOGAPS SIMILAR WITH TIMING OF FRONT INTO THE GULF TONIGHT. ALL MODELS EXCEPT FOR THE EUROPEAN AGREE THAT A SHORT PERIOD OF 15-20 KT N WINDS WILL FOLLOW BEHIND THE FRONT TONIGHT INTO TUE MORNING WHEN N WINDS DECREASE TO 10-15 KT. SO WILL MENTION N-NE 15-20 KT BEHIND FRONT E OF 90W FOR TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY TUE MORNING FOR THIS PACKAGE. THE COLD FRONT WILL QUICKLY EXIT THE GULF TUE NIGHT. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT ACROSS ENTIRE GULF WED AS HIGH PRES BECOMES ESTABLISHED N TO S ACROSS THE MIDDLE GULF. WINDS WILL THEN INCREASE OVER THE ENTIRE W GULF WED NIGHT THROUGH FRI THEN DECREASE FRI NIGHT AS HIGH PRES MOVES E OF THE GULF AND LOW PRES DEEPENS OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW MAY REACH E TEXAS AND POSSIBLY MOVE INTO THE W GULF SAT FOLLOWED BY NLY WINDS OF 20 KT AS SUGGESTED BY THE GFS/NAM/NOGAPS BOUNDARY LAYER WIND FIELDS. SEAS CONTINUE LOW ACROSS THE GULF WITH MAXIMUM SEA REPORTED OF 5 FT OVER THE SW PORTION. THIS IS BOUT 1-2 FT ABOVE NWW3 GUIDANCE. FOR REMAINDER OF GULF BUOYS REPORTING SEA HEIGHTS VERY CLOSE TO NWW3 GUIDANCE VALUES SO WILL FOLLOW GUIDANCE CLOSELY FOR THIS PACKAGE...BUT TWEAK SEAS UPWARDS ABOUT 1 FT ABOVE NWW3 FOR W GULF THU AND FRI IN MODERATE RETURN SLY FLOW ACROSS LARGE FETCH AREA...AND LIKELY WILL DO THE SAME FOR W GULF SAT WHINE N WINDS OF 20 KT KICK IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. WARNINGS... ATLANTIC... NONE. CARIBBEAN... NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. FORECASTER AGUIRRE