000 AGXX40 KNHC 021856 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 255 PM EST SUN APR 02 2006 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. SW N ATLC AND TROPICAL N ATLC... WEAKENING TROUGH EXTENDS FROM PUERTO RICO NE OF AREA. A WEAK 1015 MB LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH IS JUST NE OF PUERTO RICO AS NOTED ON VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY AND IN THE SURFACE PRES FIELD. THE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN TONIGHT INTO MON MORNING...THEN DISSIPATE LATER ON MON. TIGHT PRES GRADIENT RESULTING FROM THE COMBINATION OF THE LOW AND HIGH PRES PRESENT ACROSS THE AREA HAS SHIFTED TO JUST E OF AREA WHERE A MORE PRONOUNCED LOW IS LOCATED. NE WINDS OF 15-20 KT ARE NOW OCCURRING OVER THE FAR SE PART OF THE AREA WITH A NE SWELL OF UP TO 9 FT. THE HIGH PRES WILL SHIFT EASTWARD THROUGH TUE NIGHT. ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA...WINDS ARE RATHER LIGHT (SPEEDS OF 10-15 KT) AS INDICATED BY OBSERVATIONS FROM SHIPS AND BUOYS...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A SMALL POCKET OF SW 15-20 KT WINDS NOTED N OF 30N BETWEEN 74W-77W WITH SEAS UP TO 6 FT. THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO A WEAK COLD FRONT DROPPING SE ACROSS THE SE U.S. ELSEWHERE WIND DIRECTION IS PRIMARILY FROM THE NE-E EXCEPT SE-S N OF 25N W OF 77W. SEAS ARE RUNNING 2-4 FT N OF 25N W OF 77W AND ABOUT 4-7 FT ACROSS REMAINDER OF AREA WHICH AGAIN IS PRETTY CLOSE TO NWW3 VALUES. GLOBAL MODELS AGREE THAT A STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE NW PART OF THE AREA LATE MON NIGHT...THEN REACH A PSN FROM 31N73W TO 28N73W AND WEAKENING TO S FLORIDA TUE NIGHT INTO WED MORNING. FRONT WILL FURTHER WEAKEN FROM ABOUT 29N65W TO NEAR E CUBA THU AND BECOME DIFFUSE E OF AREA FRI. SW WINDS OF 15-20 KT WILL PRECEDE THE FRONT THROUGH TUE EVENING WITH NLY WINDS OF 10-15 KT BEHIND THE FRONT EXCEPT N OF 30N WHERE WINDS MAY REACH SPEEDS OF 15-20 KT MON NIGHT AND PART OF TUE AS SUGGESTED BY PRETTY MUCH ALL MODELS...ALTHOUGH EUROPEAN NOT AS MUCH. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT ON EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT THU AS WEAK HIGH PRES BECOMES SETTLED OVER THE FAR NW PORTION OF THE SW N ATLC (ZONE 088). TROUGH FROM PUERTO RICO NE TO 21N57W WILL SLOWLY BECOME DIFFUSE THROUGH MON AS LOW PRES JUST E OF THE TROPICAL N ATLC ZONE (087) AREA NEAR 21N54.5W MOVES A BIT FURTHER NE AND HIGH PRES TO THE N RETREATS E. NE 20 KT WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO JUST ALONG AND N OF 22N TONIGHT THROUGH MON MORNING BEFORE DECEASING AS LOW MOVES NE. SEAS OF 7-10 FT N OF 20N WILL SUBSIDE TO 8 FT LATE TONIGHT AND MON...TO 7 FT TUE AND WED AND TO 6 FT THU. ACROSS REMAINDER OF TROPICAL N ATLC LIGHT ELY TRADES WILL CHANGE VERY LITTLE THROUGH FRI WITH SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT. CARIBBEAN... TRADES HAVE CONTINUED TO WEAKEN ACROSS ENTIRE AREA...EXCEPT FOR THE TYPICAL AREA OF NE 20-25 KT WINDS JUST OFF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. AS HIGH PRES OVER THE ATLC GRADUALLY SHIFTS E MON THROUGH FRI N ADVANCE OF NEXT COLD FRONT TO MOVE INTO THE SW N ATLC NEXT FEW DAYS...THESE NE WINDS OF 20-25 KT WILL DECREASE TO 15-20 KT WED THROUGH FRI WITH SEAS SUBSIDING TO 7 FT NEAR THE COLOMBIAN COAST. GULF OF MEXICO... ATLC HIGH PRES WILL CONTINUE TO PROTRUDE WESTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF THROUGH MON...THEN SHIFT S TUE AND WED TO ALONG 26N. MODELS PRETTY MUCH IN AGREEMENT THAT A COLD FRONT WILL DROP S INTO THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN GULF MON NIGHT TUE MORNING. GFS/EUROPEAN/NAM AND NOGAPS SIMILAR IN TIMING OF FRONT INTO THE GULF. THE EUROPEAN AND NOGAPS SIMILAR WITH MOSTLY 15 KT WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WHILE THE NAM IS THE WEAKEST WITH 10-15 KT...AND GFS BEING THE STRONGEST WITH N WINDS UP TO 20 KT BEHIND THE FRONT LATE MON NIGHT INTO TUE MORNING. WILL LEAN TOWARDS EUROPEAN AND NOGAPS BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS OF 15 KT BUT TAKE THE HIGH END OF THE GFS WITH 20 KT. SO WILL GO WITH A BRIEF OCCURRENCE OF 15-20 KT N WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WITHIN ABOUT 60-90 NM OF THE N GULF COAST E OF 90W BEGINNING LATE MON NIGHT AND INTO PART OF TUE MORNING. THE COLD FRONT WILL QUICKLY EXIT THE GULF TUE NIGHT. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT ACROSS ENTIRE GULF WED AS HIGH PRES BECOMES ESTABLISHED N TO S ACROSS THE MIDDLE GULF. WINDS WILL THEN INCREASE OVER THE ENTIRE W GULF WED NIGHT THROUGH FRI AS HIGH PRES MOVES E OF THE GULF AND LOW PRES DEEPENS OVER THE GREAT PLAINS. E-SE WINDS TO 20 KT CURRENTLY SEEN S OF 25N W OF 90W AND SE-S WINDS TO 20 KT N OF 25N W OF 94W WILL DECREASE LATE TONIGHT AND MON. SEAS FOR THE MOST PART REMAIN RATHER LOW ACROSS THE GULF...EXCEPT THE SW PORTION WHERE LONG DURATION OF E-SE 15-20 KT HAVE KICKED UP SEAS TO 6 FT AS BEING REPORTED BY BUOY 42055 OVER THE PAST 3-4 HOURS. WILL BUMP SEAS UP 1-2 FT ABOVE NWW3 GUIDANCE FOR SW GULF ZONE (082) FOR TONIGHT. FOR REST OF GULF BUOYS REPORTING SEA HEIGHTS VERY CLOSE TO NWW3 GUIDANCE VALUES SO WILL FOLLOW GUIDANCE CLOSELY FOR THIS PACKAGE...BUT TWEAK SEAS UPWARDS ABOUT 2 FT ABOVE NWW3 FOR W GULF THU AND FRI IN MODERATE RETURN SLY FLOW ACROSS LARGE FETCH AREA. WARNINGS... ATLANTIC... NONE. CARIBBEAN... NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. FORECASTER AGUIRRE