000 AGXX40 KNHC 020550 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 130 AM EST SUN APR 02 2006 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. A PERSISTENT UPPER TROUGH OVER THE NE CARIB APPEARS TO BE GETTING ADDITIONAL ENERGY FROM SHORTWAVES IN THE MORE NRN UPPER FLOW TONIGHT ACCORDING TO THE LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE GULF REMAINS STATIONARY TONIGHT AND BULGES NWD OVER THE GREAT LAKES. ON THE SURFACE TONIGHT A WEAK TROUGH CONTINUES ALONG 20N FROM 50W TO 65W SUPPORTED BY THE UPPER TROUGH. THE UPPER PATTERN BECOMES MORE PROGRESSIVE DAY 1 WITH A SHORTWAVE MOVING ESE ALONG 30N AT 65W BEGINNING TO PHASE IN WITH THE PERSISTENT UPPER TROUGH OVER THE NE CARIB. STRONG SHORTWAVES CONTINUE TO PUSH THROUGH THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE ERN US DAY 1. HIGH PRESSURE 1023 MB OVER MID OCEAN DAY 1 WITH AN AXIS BACK OVER THE N CENTRAL GULF WILL MAINTAIN MODERATE NE WINDS OVER THE CARIB W OF 70W AND IN THE EXTREME WRN GULF. ALSO AN AREA IN THE ATLC N OF THE TROUGH WILL HAVE ELY WINDS 20 KT. THE TWO SHORTWAVES OVER THE ATLC DAY 1 PHASE TOGETHER DAY 2 OVER MID OCEAN. STRONG SHORTWAVES DRIVING SE OVER THE MIDWEST AND ERN US DAY 2 FORCE THE UPPER RIDGE OFF THE ATLC COAST TO 70W. GFS MODEL WANTS TO STRENGTHEN SLIGHTLY A WEAK LOW OVER MID OCEAN IN RESPONSE TO THE UPPER SHORTWAVE. LOOKS REASONABLE. THE ATLC RIDGE 1022 MB MOVES TO NEAR 33N43W WITH AN AXIS BACK TO THE CENTRAL GULF DAY 2. MODERATE ELY WINDS N OF THE ATLC LOW AND IN THE SW CARIB. OUTLOOK PERIOD... THE MID OCEAN SHORTWAVE MOVES TO 50W DAY 3 WHILE STRONG SHORTWAVES CARVE OUT A LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE ERN US. UPPER RIDGING SHIFTS TO 60W. PERSISTENT SURFACE LOW PRESSURE MOVES TO CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 23N45W. IN RESPONSE TO THE STRENGTHENING UPPER TROUGH OVER THE ERN US..A COLD FRONT DROPS SE TO NEAR 30N72W SW TO CENTRAL FL DAY 3. MODERATE WINDS N OF THE LOW PRES AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT N OF 29N. CENTRAL CARIB WINDS REMAIN MODERATE ELY. GULF WINDS MOSTLY LIGHT. THE ATLC SHORTWAVE MOVES TO 40W DAY 4 WHILE A LARGE UPPER TROUGH DOMINATES THE ERN US AND WRN ATLC AREA. UPPER RIDGING MOVES TO 54W WHILE A STRONG RIDGE RE-ESTABLISHES ITSELF OVER THE CENTRAL US. A WEAK SURFACE LOW MOVES TO NEAR 24N42W DAY 4 WITH NE WINDS 20 KT. THE COLD FRONT BEGINS TO DISSIPATE NE OF THE BAHAMAS WITH MOSTLY LIGHT WINDS. RETURN FLOW INCREASES W OF 95W DAY 4 AND CARIB WINDS REMAIN MOSTLY MODERATE S OF 15N. STRONG UPPER CIRCULATIONS DOMINATE THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN DAY 5 WITH EQUAL WAVELENGTH. UPPER TROUGHING WILL BE ALONG 30W..65W AND ANOTHER STRONG CIRCULATION BACK OVER THE PLAINS. UPPER RIDGING SHIFTS TO ALONG 45W AND FROM THE GULF NEWD OVER THE ERN US. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE MOVES SLOWLY E TO NEAR 23N39W WITH 20 KT WINDS. WEAK ATLC RIDGE CENTERED NEAR 29N50W AT 1021 MB. STILL A WEAK FRONTAL TROUGH MOVING E DAY 5 TO 31N60W BACK TO THE SE BAHAMAS. WEAK 1020 MB HIGH FOLLOWING FRONTAL TROUGH. SLY WINDS INCREASE TO 20 KT W OF 90W DAY 5 AS SURFACE PRESSURES FALL OVER THE SRN PLAINS IN RESPONSE TO THE STRONG CIRCULATION OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. CARIB WINDS LITTLE CHANGE DAY 5. WARNINGS... ATLANTIC... NONE. CARIBBEAN... NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. FORECASTER RRG