000 AGXX40 KNHC 010554 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 130 AM EST SAT APR 01 2006 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. RESIDUAL MID LEVEL TROUGHING CONTINUES TONIGHT OVER THE SW ATLC WITH OCCASIONAL WEAK AREAS OF VORTICITY DROPPING SE INTO THE AREA FROM THE NW. A PERSISTENT UPPER RIDGE HOLDS FIRM OVER THE GULF TONIGHT EXTENDING NE OFF THE ERN US COAST. ON THE SURFACE A PERSISTENT TROUGH HANGS ON FROM THE NE CARIB NEWD TO NEAR 24N57W. A POLAR HIGH WAS LOCATED NEAR 33N68W. FOR DAY 1 MID LEVEL TROUGHING WILL CONTINUE OVER THE CENTRAL BAHAMA TO N CENTRAL CARIB AREA. THE GULF UPPER RIDGE HOLDS FIRM BUILDING NWD WHILE STRONG SHORTWAVES SLIDE OFF THE MID ATLC COAST AND MOVE EWD. THE OLD POLAR HIGH WILL MOVE TO NEAR 33N62W AND MAINTAIN AN AXIS BACK TO THE NRN GULF DAY 1. MOSTLY MODERATE E AND NE WINDS MOST AREAS EXCEPT OVER THE GULF WHERE WINDS WILL BE MOSTLY LIGHT TO MODERATE SE. THE STRONG MOSTLY WLY FLOW ALOFT WILL FORCE THE TROUGH OVER THE SW ATLC TO BEGIN MOVING EWD DAY 2. AS IT DOES IT WILL CAPTURE SOME OF THE VORTICITY DROPPING SE OFF THE MID ATLC COAST. OTHERWISE THE UPPER RIDGE HOLDS FIRM OVER THE GULF BUT TILTS EWD TO THE ERN US DAY 2. THE GFS MODEL STILL SHOWS SOME SURFACE TROUGHING NE OF THE LEEWARDS DAY 2 PROBABLY IN RESPONSE TO THE VORTICITY MOVING OVER THE AREA. OTHERWISE THE OLD POLAR HIGH WEAKENS SOME DAY 2 BUT STILL MAINTAINS AN AXIS FROM 33N55W TO 27N85W. SOME INCREASE IN SLY WINDS W OF 90W DAY 2 TO 20 KT..OTHERWISE MOST AREAS LIGHT TO MODERATE. OUTLOOK PERIOD... THE PROGRESSIVE STRONG UPPER FLOW TAKES IT TOLL ON THE UPPER RIDGE DAY 3 SHIFTING IT EWD OFF THE ATLC COAST. ONE SHORTWAVE MOVES TO MID OCEAN NEAR 55W WHILE A MUCH STRONGER ONE DROPS SE OVER THE MIDWEST. ON THE SURFACE THE GFS MODEL WANTS TO DEVELOP A WEAK LOW NEAR 23N53W IN RESPONSE TO THE ABOVE SHORTWAVE. WITH RIDGING TO THE N ELY WINDS COULD INCREASE IN THIS AREA TO 25 KT. PRESSURE GRADIENT MOSTLY WEAK ALL AREAS THUS WINDS MOSTLY LIGHT TO MODERATE. THE MID OCEAN SHORTWAVE MOVES EWD TO NEAR 45W DAY 4 AS THE STRONGER SHORTWAVE CARVES OUT A LARGE TROUGH OVER THE ERN SEABOARD. UPPER RIDGING BUILDS ALONG 60W AND BACK ALONG 100W. THE MID OCEAN WEAK LOW PRESSURE MOVES E TO NEAR 23N43W WITH AN AREA OF 25 TO 30 KT WINDS OVER THE NRN QUADRANT. A COLD FRONT DROPS SE OFF THE SE COAST DAY 4 IN RESPONSE TO THE STRONG UPPER TROUGH. WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 20 KT N OF 28N W OF 75W. REMAINDER OF THE AREA LITTLE CHANGE. THE PROGRESSIVE PATTERN CONTINUES DAY 5 WITH MID LEVEL TROUGHING SHIFTING E OF 50W. THE STRONG UPPER TROUGH SHIFTS TO BETWEEN 75W AND 80W. UPPER RIDGING MOVES TO 50W WHILE A FULL LATITUDE RIDGE HOLDS FROM THE GULF NWD TO THE UPPER MIDWEST. WEAK LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES EWD DAY 5 TO NEAR 40W WITH A SMALL AREA OF WINDS TO 25 KT. THE COLD FRONT MOVES TO 30N68W CENTRAL BAHAMAS BUT WITH LITTLE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND LIGHT WINDS. GULF WINDS W OF 90W WILL REMAIN SE 15 TO 20 KT. CARIB WINDS MOSTLY LIGHT TO MODERATE. WARNINGS... ATLANTIC... NONE. CARIBBEAN... NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. FORECASTER RRG