000 AGXX40 KNHC 291804 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 105 PM EST WED MAR 29 2006 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. SW AND TROPICAL ATLC... THERE WAS SOME QUESTION OVERNIGHT ABOUT THE EXISTENCE OF A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRES N OF PUERTO RICO...AND VISIBLE IMAGERY HAS CONFIRMED IT TO BE NEAR 20N65W. THE LOW IS ATTACHED TO A STATIONARY FRONT WHICH LIES ROUGHLY FROM 20N55W TO THE LOW... THEN SW TO THE E TIP OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. A SWATH OF ELY 20 KT WINDS EXTENDS UP TO 240 NM N OF THE BOUNDARY...WHICH SEEMS TO MATCH WELL WITH GUIDANCE FROM THE GFS. NORTHERLY SWELLS OVER THE AREA HAVE BUMPED WAVE HEIGHTS UP TO 9-10 FT...BUT THE SEA STATE IS LIKELY A BIT CONFUSED AS INCREASING ELY SWELL SETS UP N OF THE FRONT. THE BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN STATIONARY THROUGH THE REST OF THIS WEEK...AND WILL KEEP WINDS/SEAS ABOVE 20KT/8FT FROM 18N TO 25N E OF THE BAHAMAS. CONDITIONS REMAIN LIGHTER OVER N PART OF THE SW N ATLC ZONE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD AS RIDGE REMAINS IN PLACE. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BRUSH THROUGH THE N PART OF THE AREA TONIGHT THROUGH LATE THU BUT SHOULD NOT AFFECT WINDS OR SEAS. SWLY FLOW INCREASES OFF THE E COAST OF FLORIDA SUN AND MON AS RIDGE SHIFTS E OVER THE OPEN ATLC. OVER THE TROPICAL ATLC...WINDS ARE RELATIVELY LIGHT S OF THE FRONT BUT THEN INCREASE 15-20 KT S OF 16N...ALTHOUGH SWELL WILL BE SUBSIDING TO 6-7 FT BY MON. CARIBBEAN... INCREASED PRES GRADIENT OVER THE CARIBBEAN HAS RAISED WINDS OVER MOST OF THE AREA. GRIDDED QUIKSCAT DATA FROM THIS MORNING INDICATED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO 30 KT OFF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA...AND BUOY 40258 OVER THE CNTRL CARIBBEAN HAS REPORTED MAXIMUM 1-MINUTE WINDS TO 27 KT OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS. TRADES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN AT THESE LEVELS THROUGH LATE SAT WHEN ATLC RIDGE BEGINS TO SHIFT E. GULF OF MEXICO... E/SE FLOW IN CONTROL OVER THE GULF WITH RIDGE CENTERED FROM N FLORIDA TO LOUISIANA. ALL BUOYS RUNNING BELOW 15 KT ALTHOUGH WINDS ARE AROUND 20 KT OVER THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. A STORM SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN OVER THE SRN PLAINS BY THU AND WILL INCREASE THE RETURN FLOW OVER THE W GULF WATERS... PERIODICALLY HOVERING NEAR AND BELOW THE 20 KT THRESHOLD THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. SEAS WILL BE UNABLE TO ATTAIN A FULLY-DEVELOPED STATE DUE TO THE FORECAST WIND OSCILLATIONS... BUT WAVE HEIGHTS TO 7 FT IS LIKELY CLOSE TO THE TEXAS COAST AFTER FETCH HAS BEEN MAXIMIZED FROM THE SE. SEAS MAY ALSO BUILD AS HIGH AS 8 FT IN THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA AS 20-25 KT ELY FLOW BUCKS AGAINST THE GULF STREAM CURRENT. WARNINGS... ATLANTIC... NONE. CARIBBEAN... NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. FORECASTER BERG