000
AGXX40 KNHC 290630
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION   
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 
130 AM EST WED MAR 29 2006

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND 
SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W.

A STATIONARY FRONT LIES E TO W ALONG 20N E OF HISPANIOLA AS 
FORECAST. LOW PRES 1016 MB NEAR 20N65W ON TPC 00Z ANALYSIS NOT 
VERY DEFINITIVE ATTM...AND PREVIOUS 00Z PSN WAS IN RANGE OF SAN 
JUAN RADAR WHICH INDICATES VERY LITTLE CYCLONIC TURNING ON THEIR 
CURRENT LOOP. WEAK TURNING NEAR 21N64W ON NIGHT CHANNEL APPEARS 
TO BE ALOFT. LATE AFTERNOON QSCAT WINDS AND LATEST SSMI SUGGEST 
THAT NE WINDS 20-30 KT WITHIN ABOUT 240 NM NW OF FRONT E OF 73W. 
SINCE WINDS ARE HIGHER THAN PREVIOUS GFS GUIDANCE...NWW3 HEIGHTS 
WILL TWEAKED UP A TAD FIRST PERIOD. THEN EXPECT GRADIENT TO 
WEAKEN TO 20-25 KT LATE TODAY WITH NE-SW INVERTED TROUGH 
DEVELOPING FROM 23N60W TO HISPANIOLA THU. THE TROUGH WILL MOVE 
LITTLE WHILE GRADUALLY WEAKENING THROUGH LATTER PART OF OUTLOOK 
PERIOD. BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS MAIN PRECIP 
WILL BE OVER WATER BUT COULD HAVE SECONDARY MAX OVER NW PUERTO 
RICO AND E HISPANIOLA. S OF THIS FRONT ELY TRADES WILL DOMINATE 
TROPICAL ATLC AND CARIBBEAN WITH TYPICAL NE 25 KT ALONG COAST OF 
COLOMBIA. 

FURTHER N...HIGH PRES NEAR 31N70W WILL SHIFT E ALONG 29N WITH A 
RIDGE EXTENDING W ALONG 29N ACROSS FL INTO N CENTRAL GULF OF 
MEXICO. THE RIDGE WILL BLOCK SOUTHERN EXTENT OF NEXT FRONT TO 
ALONG 30N OVER SW N ATLC AND FL...AND 31N-32N BETWEEN 82W-92W  
THROUGH 48 HOURS WITH REMNANTS MOVING E OF DISCUSSION AREA 
THEREAFTER. HIGH PRES THEN ANCHORS N OF BERMUDA AND RIDGES W 
ALONG NORTHERN WATERS THROUGH SAT. THE RIDGE WILL WEAKEN WITH 
NEXT SHORTWAVE DIPPING INTO EXTREME NE GULF OF MEXICO SAT NIGHT 
AND MOVING OFFSHORE GA AROUND SUNRISE SUN REACHING FROM BERMUDA 
TO NE FL AROUND SUNRISE MON.
 
ONE TRICKY AREA WILL BE IN STRAITS OF FL AS MODELS FLUCTUATING 
ON STRENGTH AND DURATION OF ELY WINDS...THUS RANGE MAY BE 5-8 FT 
TO COVER POSSIBILITIES. 

WARNINGS...
ATLANTIC...
NONE.

CARIBBEAN...
NONE.

GULF OF MEXICO...
NONE.

FORECASTER NELSON