000 AGXX40 KNHC 272004 CCA MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 230 PM EST MON MAR 27 2006 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. HIGH PRES WILL BE THE MAIN WEATHER FEATURE OVER OFFSHORE ZONES THROUGH THE NEXT FEW DAYS INFLUENCING THE WIND REGIME. SW N ATLC... WEAKENING STATIONARY FRONT OVER THE EXTREME SE PART OF THE AREA FROM 21N65W TO ACROSS HISPANIOLA WILL BECOME MORE E-W ORIENTED THE COURSE OF THE WEEK. NW WINDS OF 20-25 KT ARE N OF THE FRONT PRIMARILY CONFINED TO THE NE PORTION OF THE AREA. THESE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DECREASE TO 10-15 KT BY LATE TONIGHT AS SHOWN IN THE GFS BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS. HIGH PRES MOVING OFFSHORE THE SE U.S COAST INTO THE SW N ATLC ZONE TONIGHT AND TUE WILL SLIDE E OF THE AREA WED NIGHT. WINDS AND SEAS WILL DECREASE OVER MUCH OF THE W SECTION. OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTION...THE PRES GRADIENT WILL INCREASE TONIGHT AND LAST INTO FRI AS THE HIGH SLIDES EASTWARD AND BUILDS S. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR NE WINDS OF 20-25 KT WITH SEAS TO 9 FT...BUT SHOULD THEN DECREASE SAT. SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO DECREASE TO 6-8 FT LATE THU THROUGH SAT AS INDICATED BY THE LATEST NOAA WAVEWATCH 3 GUIDANCE. A SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE N AND NE PORTIONS OF THE AREA WED BRINGING A WIND SHIFT TO LIGHT SW WINDS N OF ABOUT 28N WED NIGHT THROUGH FRI. THEN HIGH PRES RIDGING WILL NOSE SW INTO THE AREA SAT FROM 31N76W TO 28N80W WITH INCREASING SLY FLOW N OF THE RIDGE IN RESPONSE TO YET ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE SE U.S. COAST. GULF OF MEXICO... BOTH QUIKSCAT DATA AND BUOY OBSERVATIONS REVEAL THE RETURN FLOW OF SE WINDS IN THE 15-20 KT RANGE WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 7 FT W OF 94W. ELSEWHERE W OF 89W WINDS ARE E-SE 10-15 KT WITH SEAS 2-4 FT. REMAINDER GULF WINDS ARE NE TO E 10 KT WITH SEAS 2-3 FT. THE COMBINATION BETWEEN THE HIGH PRES SLIDING EASTWARD INTO THE SW N ATLC MON...AND LOW PRES OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. WILL CONTINUE TO RESULT IN A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT OVER THE W GULF THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY WED MORNING ALLOWING FOR MODERATE SE RETURN FLOW IN THE NW AND SW ZONES. HOWEVER...THIS GRADIENT WILL INCREASE EASTWARD AS WELL THU AND FRI INCREASING THE E-SE WINDS OVER THE MIDDLE AND EASTERN GULF THEN RELAX SOME SAT. WINDS OVER THE EXTREME SE PART AND STRAITS OF FLORIDA MAY BE FURTHER ENHANCED BY STRONG S PRES GRADIENT ACROSS THE S PORTION OF THE SW N ATLC. LATEST WAVE WATCH GUIDANCE ONLY SHOWS SEAS UP TO 6 FT AND BRIEF 7 FT OVER THE WESTERN STRAITS OF FLORIDA LATE THU NIGHT AND EARLY FRI. MAY HAVE TO BUMP UP SEAS HIGHER THAN THE GUIDANCE BASE ON DURATION AND INTENSITY OF ELY FLOW ACROSS THIS PART OF THE GULF. CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL N ATLC... N-NE WINDS OF 15-20 KT OVER THE W PART SHOULD DECREASE THROUGH TUE AFTERNOON...HOWEVER...MODERATE TRADES CONTINUE OVER THE SW PORTION OF THE SEA MAINLY NEAR THE S AMERICA COAST. NE WINDS OF 25 KT ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE COLOMBIAN COAST BY TUE INCREASING TO 25-30 KT TUE NIGHT THROUGH THU WITH AREAL COVERAGE MINIMIZING SOME FRI AND SAT. NE WINDS OF 20 KT NEAR THE E COAST OF CUBA AND WINDWARD PASSAGE WILL INCREASE TO 20-25 KT TUE NIGHT THEN DECREASING TO 15-20 KT WED THROUGH FRI AND 10-15 KT SAT. 6-8 FT SEAS OVER THE SW PORTION OF THE SEA SHOULD BUILD UP TO 12 OR 13 FT BY WED THE SUBSIDE TO 9 FT THU INTO SAT. THE FRONT FROM 21N65W TO HISPANIOLA WILL REACH FROM 21N55W TO JUST N OF PUERTO RICO AND VICINITY TUE AND WED...THEN DISSIPATE FROM 20N55W TO VIRGIN ISLANDS FRI. LATEST GFS MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGEST LOW PRES FORMING SOMEWHERE S OF 22N BETWEEN 60W-66W WED INTO SAT BUT WILL HOLD OFF ON MENTIONING THIS POSSIBLE SCENARIO SINCE TOO SOON TO BE SURE THIS WILL HAPPEN. IN ANY EVENT...LOW LEVEL VORTICITY IS INDICATED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY TO BE JUST E OF THE SE BAHAMAS NEAR 22N70W. THIS MAY BE THE BEGINNINGS OF THE FORMATION OF THIS LOW PRES. ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN...TRADES WILL AVERAGE 15-20 KT THROUGH THU DECEASING SOME OVER THE EASTERN PORTION FRI WITH SEAS ABOUT 4-7 FT. OVER THE TROPICAL N ATLC...NE WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 15-20 KT LATE WED NIGHT INTO FRI AND MAY BE ATTRIBUTED TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF THIS LOW OR FRONTAL WAVE FEATURE ALONG THE TAIL END OF THE FRONT. OF COURSE...THIS LOW PORTRAYED BY THE GFS MAY VERY WELL BE ERRONEOUS CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK NOT RESOLVED WELL BY THE MODEL. WARNINGS... ATLANTIC... NONE. CARIBBEAN... NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. FORECASTER AGUIRRE