000 AGXX40 KNHC 261809 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 105 PM EST SUN MAR 26 2006 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO SLOWLY IMPROVE ACROSS THE FORECAST WATERS FOR MOST ZONES...BUT SOME CHANGES ARE ALREADY TAKING PLACE. HIGH PRES WILL BE THE MAIN WEATHER FEATURE OVER OFFSHORE ZONES THROUGH THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE MOVEMENT OF THE HIGH FROM W TO E DURING THE COMING WEEK WILL HAVE A DIRECT IMPACT WIND DIRECTION AND SPEED OVER ALL BODIES OF WATER. SW N ATLC... WEAKENING COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM 23N65W TO NW HAITI WILL STAGGER TO THE EXTREME SE PART OF THE AREA BY LATE TONIGHT... THEN DRIFT INTO THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE TROPICAL N ATLC ZONE MON AND EXTEND FROM NEAR 22N55W TO PUERTO RICO AND THE MONA PASSAGE AREA TUE AND WASH OUT WED. NW WINDS OF 20-25 KT REMAIN N OF 27N W OF THE FRONT TO 73W. THIS WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DECREASE TO 15-20 KT BY LATE TONIGHT AS SHOWN BY THE 1200 UTC GFS WINDS. A SECONDARY TROUGH OR POSSIBLY EVEN ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL QUICKLY SWEEP ACROSS THE NE PORTION OF THE AREA TODAY RE-INFORCING NW WINDS OF 20 KT WINDS ACROSS WATERS N OF 28N THEN DECREASE TONIGHT. ELSEWHERE W OF THE FRONT NW WINDS OF 15 KT WILL DECREASE TO 10-15 KT MON AND BEGIN TO VEER IN RESPONSE TO HIGH PRES MOVING INTO THE AREA FROM THE SE U.S. LIGHT SLY WINDS ARE NOTED SE OF THE FRONT. AS HIGH PRES BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA MON AND BEGINS TO MOVE EASTWARD...WINDS AND SEAS WILL DECREASE. HOWEVER...THIS WILL MAINLY BE SEEN OVER THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL SECTIONS DUE TO THE PRES GRADIENT INCREASING PRETTY SIGNIFICANTLY OVER THE S SECTION BEGINNING LATE MON AND LASTING INTO FRI AS THE HIGH SLIDES EASTWARD AND BUILDS S. WINDS HERE WILL BE NE-E 20-25 KT WITH BUILDING SEAS IN AN E SWELL. SEAS MAY BUILD AS HIGH AS 10 FT OVER THE EXTREME SE PART BY WED THE LOWER TO 6-8 FT THU AND FRI UNDER NE-E WINDS OF 20 KT AND GUSTY AS ADVERTISED BY THE LATEST NOAA NWW3 GUIDANCE...ALTHOUGH COULD BE SLIGHTLY HIGHER IF RESIDUAL SWELL FROM LINGERS LONG ENOUGH TO MIX IN WITH THE NEW E SWELL. BY FRI A RIDGE WILL EXTEND INTO THE AREA FROM 31N76W TO 30N81W. GULF OF MEXICO... BOTH QUIKSCAT DATA AND BUOY OBSERVATIONS CONTINUE TO SHOW THAT WINDS AND SEAS HAVE GREATLY DIMINISHED ACROSS THE ENTIRE GULF WITH WINDS GENERALLY NE-E 10-15 KT EXCEPT OVER THE EXTREME W SECTION WHERE WINDS ARE ALREADY E-SE 15-20 KT. SEAS ARE RUNNING 2-4 FT EXCEPT NEAR THE YUCATAN WHERE SEAS ARE UP 5 FT IN RESIDUAL N SWELL. WITH HIGH PRES N OF THE AREA MOVING E...A NLY SURGE CONSISTING OF 15-20 KT WINDS WILL BRIEFLY INTRUDE INTO THE E GULF TONIGHT. THE COMBINATION BETWEEN THE HIGH PRES SLIDING EASTWARD INTO THE SW N ATLC MON...AND LOW PRES STRENGTHENING OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. WILL RESULT IN A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT OVER THE W GULF MON THROUGH WED ALLOWING FOR MODERATE SE RETURN FLOW IN THE NW AND SW ZONES. HOWEVER...THIS GRADIENT WILL INCREASE EASTWARD AS WELL THU AND FRI INCREASING THE E-SE WINDS OVER THE MIDDLE AND EASTERN GULF. THIS MAY BE FURTHER COMPOUNDED BY MODERATE TO STRONG E WINDS SPILLING OVER FROM THE SW N ATLC THROUGH THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA AND INTO THE SE GULF THU AND FRI. LATEST NOAA WAVE WATCH MODEL GUIDANCE ONLY SHOWS SEAS UP TO 6 FT FOR SE GULF AND STRAITS OF FLORIDA BY FRI...BUT MOST LIKELY WILL HAVE TO RAISE THESE SEAS. CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL N ATLC... WEAKENING FRONTAL TROUGH AS OF EARLY THIS AFTERNOON EXTENDS FROM WINDWARD PASSAGE SW TO NE NICARAGUA. BEHIND THE FRONT N-NE WINDS OF 15-20 KT ARE PRESENT BUT DECREASING TOWARDS THE NW PART OF THE SEA. MODERATE TRADES CONTINUE OVER THE SW PORTION OF THE SEA MAINLY NEAR THE S AMERICA COAST. NE WINDS OF 25 KT ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE COLOMBIAN COAST BY TUE INCREASING TO 25-30 KT TUE NIGHT THROUGH THU WITH AREAL COVERAGE MINIMIZING SOME FRI. NE WINDS OF 20 KT ARE EXPECTED NEAR THE E COAST OF CUBA AND WINDWARD PASSAGE MON NIGHT INCREASING TO 20-25 KT TUE NIGHT THEN DECREASING TO 20 KT WED THROUGH FRI. DO LIKE CURRENT SEAS OF 8-12 FT FOR THE SW PORTION FOR TUE THROUGH THU...AND MAY CONTINUE THEM INTO EARLY FRI. THIS IS ABOUT 1-2 FT HIGHER THAN NOAA WAVEWATCH GUIDANCE. THESE HEIGHTS SEEM VERY PROBABLE GIVEN THIS TYPE OF GRADIENT AND LONG DURATION. THE FRONT WILL DISSIPATE BY TONIGHT OVER THE CARIBBEAN...HOWEVER THE ATLANTIC PORTION WILL MOVE INTO THE N PORTION OF TROPICAL N ATLC ZONE MON NIGHT REACHING A LINE FROM 22N55W TO PUERTO RICO AND MONA PASSAGE TUE...THEN WEAKEN AND DISSIPATE FROM 19N55W TO VIRGIN ISLANDS WED AND THU. ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN... TRADES WILL AVERAGE 15-20 KT THROUGH THU DECEASING SOME OVER THE EASTERN PORTION FRI WITH SEAS ABOUT 4-7 FT. OVER THE TROPICAL N ATLC...NE WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 15-20 KT THU AND FRI ACROSS THE NORTHERN SECTION WITH SEAS UP 8 FT AS HIGH PRES STRENGTHENS AND BUILDS S OVER THE SW N ATLC. WARNINGS... ATLANTIC... NONE. CARIBBEAN... NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. FORECASTER AGUIRRE