000 AGXX40 KNHC 251918 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 215 PM EST SAT MAR 25 2006 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. CONDITIONS GRADUALLY IMPROVING ACROSS THE FORECAST WATERS FOR MOST ZONES IN THE SHORT TERM. SW N ATLC... COLD FRONT EXTENDS INTO THE AREA THROUGH 27N65W AND CONTINUES SW TO EXTREME E CUBA NEARING THE WINDWARD PASSAGE WITH ITS PARENT GALE CENTER WELL N OF THE REGION NEAR 35N68W. STRONGEST WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT HAVE MOVED N OF THE AREA ...SO UPON LOOKING OVER THIS MORNING'S QUIKSCAT AND SEVERAL SHIP OBSERVATIONS OVER THE NE PORTION OF THE SW N ATLC HAVE DECIDED TO LOWER THE GALE WARNING EARLIER IN EFFECT E AND W OF THE FRONT. NW WINDS OF 20-25 KT REMAIN OVER THE ATLC ELSEWHERE N OF 26N W OF THE FRONT TO 78W. LATEST GFS MODEL RUN HAS MOSTLY 25 KT W-NW WINDS OVER THE NE PART TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUN MORNING. FRONT IS BEGINNING TO SLOW DOWN SOME THIS AFTERNOON AND IS EXPECTED TO REACH A PSN FROM ABOUT 24N65W TO HISPANIOLA SUN...FROM 22N65W TO DOMINICAN REPUBLIC MON AND MOVE E OF THE SW N ATLC ZONE LATE MON NIGHT INTO EARLY TUE MORNING. A SECONDARY TROUGH OR POSSIBLY EVEN ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL QUICKLY SWEEP ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE AREA TONIGHT AND SUN RE-INFORCING SURGE OF NW 20 KT WINDS ACROSS WATERS N OF 28N. AS HIGH PRES BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA MON AND BEGINS TO MOVE EASTWARD...WINDS AND SEAS WILL DECREASE. HOWEVER...THIS WILL MAINLY BE SEEN OVER THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL SECTIONS DUE TO THE PRES GRADIENT INCREASING PRETTY SIGNIFICANTLY OVER THE S SECTION BEGINNING LATE MON AND LASTING INTO THU AS THE HIGH SLIDES EASTWARD AND BUILDS S. WINDS HERE WILL BE NE-E 20-25 KT WITH BUILDING SEAS IN AN E SWELL. SEAS MAY BUILD AS HIGH AS 10 FT OVER THE EXTREME SE PART BY THU AS ADVERTISED BY THE LATEST NOAA NWW3 GUIDANCE...ALTHOUGH COULD BE HIGHER IF RESIDUAL SWELL FROM THE PRESENT EVENT MIXES WITH NEW E SWELL. BY THU A RIDGE WILL EXTEND INTO THE AREA THROUGH 31N76W TO 29N81W. GULF OF MEXICO... BOTH QUIKSCAT DATA ALONG WITH BUOY OBSERVATIONS AND SHIP DATA INDICATE THAT WINDS AND SEAS ARE DIMINISHING ACROSS THE ENTIRE GULF WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE SE PORTION AND WATERS NEAR THE YUCATAN CHANNEL WHERE N WINDS OF 15-20 KT AND SEAS TO 8 FT ARE NOTED. A NLY SURGE OVER THE E GULF LATE TONIGHT AND SUN WILL KICK UP WINDS TO 15-20 KT OVER ZONE GMZ086. AS HIGH PRES OVER THE SE U.S. SLIDES EASTWARD INTO THE SW N ATLC MON... AND LOW PRES STRENGTHENS OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. SE-S RETURN FLOW WILL INCREASE RAPIDLY OVER THE W GULF MON THROUGH WED. FLOW THEN EXPANDS EASTWARD TO THE CENTRAL GULF AND E GULF S OF 27N BY THU. SEAS MAY BE BUILD HIGHER OVER THE SOUTH/CENTRAL AND E GULF WATERS WED AND THU DUE TO ELY FETCH AND LONG DURATION OF SPILL-OVER EFFECT OF SW N ATLC ELY WINDS AS STATED ABOVE UNDER SW N ATLC. CARIBBEAN... COLD FRONT AS OF EARLY THIS AFTERNOON EXTENDS FROM E CUBA SW TO NE HONDURAS. FRONT IS FOLLOWED BY A RATHER STRONG SURGE OF N WINDS (IN THE 20-25 KT RANGE) AS SEEN IN THIS MORNING'S QUIKSCAT DATA PRIMARILY S OF 21N. THESE WINDS WILL ONLY DECEASE SOME EARLY THIS EVENING..BUT THEN INCREASE AGAIN LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY SUN MORNING AS HIGH PRES NW OF THE CARIBBEAN RIDGES SEWD INTO THE NW PART OF THE SEA. THE FRONT WILL BECOME DIFFUSE FROM THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC SW INTO THE SW CARIBBEAN SUN NIGHT AND MON. AS THE HIGH MOVES E SUN THROUGH THU OF NEXT WEEK...TRADES WILL STRENGTHEN ACROSS ALMOST THE ENTIRE SEA WITH WINDS UP TO 30 KT POSSIBLY SEEN AGAIN NEAR THE COLOMBIAN COAST TUE THROUGH THU AND 15-20 KT TO SUSTAINED 20 KT ACROSS REMAINDER OF SEA WITH THE EXCEPTION OF EXTREME NW PART. NWW3 INDICATES SEAS UP 11 FT NEAR THE COLOMBIAN COAST THU AND UP TO 10 FT ELSEWHERE OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN. ALSO NE WINDS OF 20-25 KT WILL CHANNEL THROUGH THE WINDWARD PASSAGE MOST OF NEXT WEEK DUE TO STRONG S ATLC PRES GRADIENT. WILL HAVE TO WATCH WINDWARD PASSAGE AND NORTH/CENTRAL CARIBBEAN CLOSELY TOWARDS WED AND THU AS WINDS MAY ACTUALLY ATTAIN STRONGER SPEEDS. WARNINGS... ATLANTIC... NONE. CARIBBEAN... NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. FORECASTER AGUIRRE