000 AGXX40 KNHC 241910 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 210 PM EST FRI MAR 24 2006 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. WINTER CONTINUES TO MAKES IT PRESCENCE VERY WELL KNOW ACROSS THE REGION AS A VERY ACTIVE AND PROGRESSIVE WEATHER REGIME BRINGS STRONG WINDS AND SEAS TO THE FORECAST WATERS. SW N ATLC... THE LOW THAT WAS ADVERTISED BY THE MODELS TO FORM OVER THE NW ATLC THE PAST FEW DAYS HAS MATERIALIZED...AND WAS CENTERED NEAR 32N77W 1005 MB AT 12 UTC THIS MORNING. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE LOW THROUGH 28N78W TO 24N80W AS OBSERVED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY AND INDICATED BY SHIP OBSERVATIONS NEAR THE FRONT. LATEST MODEL RUNS FOR THE MOST PART ARE ON PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE LOW PSN OUT THROUGH 24 HOURS WHERE IT WILL BE N OF THE AREA NEAR 35N66W. THE NAM...HOWEVER...LAGS W WITH THE LOW PSN THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. WINDS ARE ALREADY INCREASING QUITE RAPIDLY OVER THE WESTERN ATLC NEAR THE LOW AND W OF THE FRONT WITH WINDS REACHING GALE FORCE OF 25-35 KT DURING THE AFTERNOON N OF 28N W OF TO 79W AND SEAS BUILDING TO 16 FT. AS THE LOW TRACKS NE...THESE CONDITIONS WILL SHIFT TO E OF ABOUT 72W TONIGHT AND SAT DECREASING LATER AFTERNOON SAT AND SUN. THE FRONT WILL REACH A LINE FROM 25N65W TO HAITI SAT THEN BECOME DIFFUSE FROM 23N65W TO THE HISPANIOLA MON. ELSEWHERE NW OF FRONT WINDS WILL BE 20-30 KT THROUGH TONIGHT AND TO 20-25 KT SAT INTO SUN WITH 20-25 KT WINDS CONFINED TO THE S PART TUE AND WED. SECONDARY FRONT WILL BRUSH THE NE PART OF THE AREA SUN AND EARLY MON WITH NW WINDS OF 20-25 KT AND SEAS OF 9 TO 13 FT IN NW SWELL. SWELLS WILL SPREAD INTO THE SE PART TUE AND WED AS WINDS DIMINISH HERE LATE MON INTO WED. RIDGE WILL BUILD ALONG 29N TUE AND WED. GULF OF MEXICO... COLD FRONT HAD JUST ABOUT EXITED THE SE GULF AS IT PUSHES INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. VERY STRONG GRADIENT NUDGED OVER THE SE GULF SUPPORTS GALE WARNING CURRENTLY IN EFFECT S OF 23N W OF 92W. ALSO...A QUIKSCAT PASS FROM THIS MORNING AROUND 1130 UTC REVEALED AN EXTENSIVE AREA OF 25-35 KT WINDS ACROSS CONFINED TO THE SW GULF. ALTHOUGH MAJORITY OF THESE WIND VECTORS SHOWED UP AS RAIN CONTAMINATED...DO THINK THEY ARE WELL REPRESENTED OF GALE WINDS JUST TO PRES ANALYSIS ALONE AND FAST MOTION TO COLD AIR STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS EVIDENT ACROSS ALMOST THE ENTIRE GULF. GALE CONDITIONS SHOULD EXPIRE SHORTLY. SEAS REMAIN RATHER HIGH ESPECIALLY OVER THE SW GULF WHERE SHIP DBBH REPORTED A COMBINED SEA OF 18 FT AT 12 UTC THIS MORNING. WINDS AND SEAS OVER THE EXTREME NW PART HAVE SUBSIDED DURING THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF...WINDS AND SEAS WILL DECREASE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESS MOVES E ALONG THE NORTHERN PORTION. SELY RETURN FLOW WILL INCREASE OVER THE EXTREME W GULF SUN AND EXPAND EASTWARD GOING INTO THE EARLY TO MID PART OF NEXT WEEK AS LOW PRES DEVELOPS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SEAS TO BUILD...POSSIBLY UP TO 8 FT...ONCE AGAIN MUCH OF THE GULF GOING INTO WED. CARIBBEAN... NE TRADES OF 20 KT CONTINUE CONFINED TO A SMALL AREA OVER THE SOUTHERN CARIBBEAN ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. COLD FRONT IS ENTERING THE NW PORTION OF THE SEA FOLLOWED BY SHIFTING WINDS OF NW TO N 20-30 KT AND BUILDING SEAS. HIGHEST WINDS AND SEAS BEING OBSERVED ACROSS AND NEAR THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. EXPECT GULF OF MEXICO NLY SWELL TO ENHANCE SEAS ACROSS THE YUCATAN CHANNEL AND NW CARIBBEAN LATER THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY SAT MORNING. N WINDS OF 20 KT WILL AFFECT THE NW CARIBBEAN BEHIND THE FRONT TONIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST SAT NIGHT THEN DECREASE SOME SUN BUT ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE AGAIN MON THROUGH WED AS NE-E 20 KT WINDS DUE TO STRONG ATLC HIGH PRES THAT BUILDS S. WARNINGS... ATLANTIC... GALE WARNING N OF 28N E OF 75W...AMZ080. CARIBBEAN... NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. FORECASTER AGUIRRE