000 AGXX40 KNHC 240649 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 145 AM EST FRI MAR 24 2006 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. VERY ACTIVE AND COMPLEX WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. RIDGE TO BUILD OVER THE AREA LATER IN THE PERIOD...BUT MODERATE WINDS TO REMAIN ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN...S PORTION OF THE ATLC WATERS...AND THE W GULF. LOOKING BACK AT MODEL FORECASTS OVER THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS...IT SEEMS THAT THE GFS CONVECTIVE PROBLEM PRECLUDED IT FROM DEVELOPING THE CORRECT LOW AND IT WAS MUCH TOO WEAK. THE NOGAPS AND GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN WERE MUCH BETTER FROM ABOUT 72 HOURS AGO. JUST SOME INTERESTING OBSERVATIONS TO REMEMBER. NOW THAT THE EVENT IS AT HAND MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT. GULF OF MEXICO... COLD FRONT IS RAPIDLY SWEEPING SE ACROSS THE SE GULF EARLY THIS MORNING. FRONT SHOULD BE READY TO EXIT THE GULF SHORTLY AFTER DAYBREAK THIS MORNING. GALE WARNING CERTAINLY VERIFIED BY NOAA BUOY 42055 WHICH HAS REPORTED A PEAK 1-MIN SUSTAINED WIND OF 36 KT THIS EVENING. WINDS LIKELY A LITTLE STRONGER ALONG THE COAST OF MEXICO. SEAS AT THE BUOY INCREASED FROM 4 FT AT 21Z TO 17 FT AT 06Z! YESTERDAYS NWW3 WAS A LITTLE LOW...BUT THE LATEST RUN INDICATES 17 FT MAX IN THE AREA. SEAS WILL LIKELY PEAK VERY SOON. WINDS TO BEGIN DECREASING THIS AFTERNOON FROM THE NW AS HIGH PRES BUILDS OVER THE GULF. GALE CONDITIONS SHOULD END BY 18Z. SEAS WILL BE SLOWLY TO SUBSIDE OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF. WINDS TO REMAIN MODERATE OVER THE E GULF THROUGH SAT BUT BECOME LIGHT ELSEWHERE. AS THE HIGH MOVES EAST SUN. SELY RETURN FLOW BECOME MODERATE ALONG THE TEXAS COAST AND CONTINUES INTO EARLY NEXT. NWW3 MAY NEED TO BE BUMP UP A FOOT OR TWO AS THIS FLOW BEGINS. SW N ATLC... AT 06Z 1012 MB LOW IS LOCATED JUST NE OF CAPE CANAVERAL FLORIDA. WITH FRONT TRAILING SW ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA. LOW TO MOVE NE TODAY TO NEAR 32N73W THIS EVENING. TRAILING FRONT TO REACH CENTRAL CUBA. LOW WILL DEEPEN WITH GALE CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVER THE SW QUADRANT BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING. PREVIOUSLY FORECASTER INTRODUCED GALES AS GFS HAS BEEN TRENDING TO STRONGER LOW. LOOKS LIKE A GREAT CALL WITH GALES SOUTH TO ABOUT 28N/29N BY TONIGHT. THOUGHT ABOUT GALES LAST NIGHT AS GFS WAS STARTING ITS STRONGER TRENDS...BUT DID NOT ISSUE THEM. GUESS YOU CAN'T SECOND GUESS YOURSELF NOW. THE LOW WILL MOVE ENE PASSING N OF BERMUDA SAT WITH GALES SWEEPING ACROSS THE N AND NE PORTION OF THE AREA. SEAS BUILD TO ABOUT 18 FT ALONG THE NE PORTION. FRONT WILL REACH THE SE PORTION OF THE AREA SUN AND MON. SECONDARY TROUGH/FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NE PART SUN WITH WINDS TO 20-25 KT. AS HIGH PRES MOVES ACROSS THE CAROLINAS WINDS DECREASE N PART...BUT BECOME MODERATE S PART BY TUE. NLY SWELLS WILL BE SLOW TO SUBSIDE AND AFFECT ALL THE W AND SW AREAS THROUGH LATE TUE. CARIBBEAN... TRADES HAVE DECREASED WITH 20 KT WINDS CONFINED TO A SMALL AREA OVER THE SOUTHERN CARIBBEAN ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. FRONT TO ENTER THE NW PORTION AND YUCATAN CHANNEL AREA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS AND SEAS TO QUICKLY INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON. DO NOT BE TEMPTED TO VENTURE OUT THIS MORNING WITH THE LIGHT WINDS AND LOW SEAS BECAUSE THEY WILL BUILD VERY FAST AS WAS SEEN IN THE GULF OF MEXICO THU. MODERATE WINDS TO AFFECT MOST AREAS W OF 80W THROUGH THE WEEKEND BEHIND THE FRONT. AS RIDGE REBUILDS EARLY NEXT WEEK TRADES INCREASE MOST AREA BY TUE. WARNINGS... ATLANTIC... GALE WARNING N OF 28N E OF 78W...AMZ080. CARIBBEAN... NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... GALE WARNING S OF 23N W OF 92W...GMZ082. FORECASTER BROWN