000 AGXX40 KNHC 221803 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 105 PM EST WED MAR 22 2006 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... LAST FEW VISIBLE SHOTS SHOWING THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM SW FLORIDA WESTWARD INTO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE PULLING UP STATIONARY WITH VERY LITTLE MOTION DURING THE LAST COUPLE OF HOURS. THE FRONT MAY BECOME STATIONARY A LITTLE FARTHER N THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED. NE WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KT CONTINUE ON THE POLEWARD SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY THROUGH TONIGHT. THEREAFTER...A MUCH STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE NW GULF JUST BEFORE DAYBREAK THU. STRONG HIGH PRES BEHIND THIS FRONT WILL INCREASE WINDS TO 20-30 KT THU WITH GALE CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVER SW GULF THU AFTERNOON AND THU NIGHT. ITS STILL LOOKING LIKE A WAVE OF LOW PRES WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE ORIGINAL FRONT AND MOVE QUICKLY EASTWARD OVER CENTRAL FLORIDA LATE THU AND THU NIGHT AHEAD OF THE STRONGER FRONT. THE CMC...ECMWF...AND UKMET ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE OVERALL TIMING AND TRACK OF THE LOW. CONVERSELY...THE NOGAPS IS FURTHEST S AND THE GFS STRONGEST/DEEPEST. GIVEN THE FRONT APPEARS TO BE ALREADY STARTING TO STALL...THE SOUTHERNMOST NOGAPS SOLUTION IS REJECTED. ADDITIONALLY...SINCE THE GFS APPEARS TO BE SUFFERING FROM SOME CONVECTIVE ISSUES...THE PRES OF THE GFS IS REJECTED. THIS...MAKES THE WAVE FORECAST PROBLEMATIC SINCE THE GFS AND THE NOGAPS DRIVE THE NWW3 AND FNMOC WAVE MODELS. FOR NOW...EXPECTING 25-35 KT SW GULF...20-30 KT ELSEWHERE W OF 85W...AND 20-25 KT E OF 85W THU AND THU NIGHT. WILL BUILD SEAS BASED ON TYPICAL VALUES ACHIEVED IN THIS TYPE SCENARIO. WINDS AND SEAS WILL COME DOWN FROM W TO E FRI AND SAT. HIGH PRES SETTLES OVER THE GULF SUN WITH MODERATE TO STRONG RETURN FLOW DEVELOPING OVER THE W GULF LATE SUN AND MON. SW N ATLC... COLD FRONT CURRENTLY EXTENDS ACROSS THE CENTRAL SW N ATLC WATERS FROM S FLORIDA TO BEYOND 30N65W. SWLY WINDS OF 20-25 KT EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE FRONT TONIGHT...WITH GENERALLY 15-20 KT WINDS BEHIND. WINDS AND SEAS DECREASE OVER ALL BUT THE FAR NE CORNER THU WHERE NW SWELLS WILL CLIP THE AREA. THEREAFTER...THE FORECAST GETS RATHER COMPLEX AS A FRONTAL WAVE DEVELOPS ALONG THE AFOREMENTIONED STATIONARY FRONT OVER THE CENTRAL GULF THU AND MOVES NE ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA THU NIGHT. AT THE SAME TIME...ANOTHER MUCH STRONGER FRONT PUSHES OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO AND OFF THE SE U.S. COAST THU INTO EARLY FRI. GFS STILL APPEARS TOO STRONG WITH THE FRONTAL WAVE DUE TO SOME CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK ISSUES. IN FACT...THE ENSEMBLE MEAN ALSO LOOKS A LITTLE DEEP. WILL LIKELY LEAN MORE TOWARDS A BLEND OF THE CMC..UKMET...AND ECMWF MODELS IN TERMS OF WINDS WITH THE LOW. INITIALLY...THE FRONT AND LOW APPEAR AS SEPARATE FEATURES BUT WILL MERGE THEM IN THE FORECAST TO KEEP WORDING CLEAN. THIS WILL LEAD TO SOME OVERSIMPLIFICATION OF THE FORECAST BUT NEEDED GIVEN THE COMPLEX FRONTAL STRUCTURE. WILL KEEP 20-25 KT BEHIND FRONT...AROUND 20 KT SE SEMICIRCLE OF LOW PRES...AND AROUND 20 KT E OF FRONT. NEEDLESS TO SAY...MUCH UNCERTAINTY EXISTS AND MARINE INTEREST IN THE SW N ATLC NEED TO CLOSELY MONITOR SUBSEQUENT FORECASTS FOR UPDATES. CARIBBEAN...TRADES EXPECTED TO WEAKEN OVER MOST AREAS THU THROUGH FRI AS THE ATLC SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WEAKENS AND A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE NW CARIBBEAN FRI. WINDS MAY EVEN BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN AHEAD OF THE STRONG FRONT LATE THU. HOWEVER...THE WINDOW OF LIGHT WINDS ALONG THE CANCUN TO KEY WEST ROUTE WILL BE SMALL AND CLOSE RAPIDLY WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE ON FRI. WINDS WILL INCREASE IN EARNEST LATE FRI WITH 20-30 AND SEAS BUILDING TO 12 FT OVER THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. ELSEWHERE OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN 20-25 KT WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT. FRONT WEAKENS LATE SAT AND SUN WITH WINDS AND SEAS FORECAST TO SLOWLY DECREASE OVER THE WEEKEND. WARNINGS... ATLANTIC... NONE. CARIBBEAN... NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... .NONE. FORECASTER RHOME