000 AGXX40 KNHC 220616 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 115 AM EST WED MAR 22 2006 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... CURRENTLY....WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDS FROM N CENTRAL FLORIDA ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO ALONG 26N85W 22N95W TO SW BAY OF CAMPECHE. THIS FRONT IS FORECAST TO BECOME STATIONARY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GULF TONIGHT. NE WINDS AROUND 20 KT EXPECTED OVER THE NW GULF...WITH 15-20 KT WINDS ELSEWHERE N OF THE FRONT THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT. A MUCH STRONGER COLD FRONT...ESPECIALLY FOR LATE MARCH IS EXPECTED TO ENTER THE NW GULF JUST BEFORE DAYBREAK THU. STRONG HIGH PRES BEHIND THIS FRONT WILL INCREASE WINDS VERY QUICKLY THU MORNING. WAVE OF LOW PRES DEVELOPS ALONG THE ORIGINAL FRONT AND IS QUICKLY SWEPT EASTWARD BY THE NEW STRONGER FRONT. THE STRONG FRONT IS FORECAST TO EXIT THE AREA BY FRI MORNING. 20-30 KT WINDS FORECAST BEHIND THE FRONT OVER THE ENTIRE GULF THU NIGHT AND EARLY FRI. GFS REMAINS CONSISTENT IN FORECASTING BRIEF PERIOD OF GALES LATE THU AND THU NIGHT OVER THE SW GULF. CURRENT WARNING HEADLINES COVER THE SITUATION SO NO MAJOR CHANGES EXPECTED. SEAS WILL BUILD VERY QUICKLY BEHIND THE FRONT. HIGHEST SEAS TO ABOUT 16 FT EXPECTED OVER THE SW PORTION. MAKING MATTERS WORSE...AN AREA OF RAIN WITH A FEW THUNDERSTORMS IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER THE NW GULF LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE THEN EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE FRONT LATE TONIGHT...AND PROGRESS EASTWARD THU. STRONGEST STORMS MAY OCCUR ALONG THE ORIGINAL FRONT THAT WILL BE STATIONARY NEAR 24N/25N. WINDS AND SEAS FORECAST TO DECREASE AREA WIDE SAT AND SUN AS HIGH PRES SETTLES OVER THE SE U.S. SW N ATLC... COLD FRONT CURRENTLY ENTERING THE FAR NW PORTION OF THE SW N ATLC WATERS. FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE N AND NE PORTION OF THE AREA TODAY...REACHING FROM 27N65W TO STRAITS OF FLORIDA TONIGHT. FRONT WILL WEAKEN ALONG 24N LATE THU. SWLY WINDS OF 20-30 KT AHEAD OF THE FRONT TODAY...WITH GENERALLY 15-20 KT WINDS BEHIND. WINDS BECOME LIGHT ACROSS THE AREA THU. THEREAFTER...THE FORECAST GETS RATHER COMPLEX AS A FRONTAL WAVE DEVELOPS ALONG THE AFOREMENTIONED STATIONARY FRONT OVER THE CENTRAL GULF THU AND MOVES NE ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA THU NIGHT. AT THE SAME TIME...ANOTHER MUCH STRONGER FRONT PUSHES OFF THE SE U.S. COAST LATE THU NIGHT INTO EARLY FRI. MODELS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH LOW PRES EXPECTED NEAR 29N77W BY FRI MORNING. THIS DEVELOPING LOW SHOULD THEN MOVE ENE. GFS IS MUCH FASTER WITH THE ENE MOTION AND IT APPEARS THIS IS DUE TO SOME CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK ISSUES IN THE MODEL. GFS MEAN ENSEMBLE FORECASTS LOW TO BE NEAR BERMUDA SAT MORNING...THAT IS EVEN SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN THE NOGAPS AND ECMWF. WILL LIKELY LEAN MORE TOWARDS THE NOGAPS FORECAST FOR THE LATER PERIODS. WINDS LIKELY INCREASE TO 20-25 KT IN ASSOCIATION WITH LOW. WINDS AND SEAS BEGIN DECREASING FROM W TO E AS LOW DEPARTS LATE SAT/SUN. STAY TUNED TO LATEST FORECASTS. CARIBBEAN...EVENING QUIKSCAT PROVIDED AN EXCELLENT LOOK AT THE MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG SELY WINDS ALONG THE N COAST OF HONDURAS...BELIZE AND S YUCATAN COAST. AREA OF WINDS IS FORECAST TO SHRINK AND WEAKEN TODAY. WINDS BECOME LIGHT OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN AHEAD OF THE STRONG FRONT THU. DON'T LET THIS FOOL YOU INTO THINKING IT IS A GOOD TIME HEAD FROM CANCUN TO KEY WEST. WINDS TO INCREASE VERY QUICKLY FROM THE NW BEHIND THE STRONG FRONT EARLY FRI. 25 KT WINDS AND SEAS BUILDING TO 12 FT FORECAST FOR THE YUCATAN CHANNEL FRI AFTERNOON. ELSEWHERE OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN 20-25 KT WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT. WINDS AND SEAS TO SLOWLY DECREASE OVER THE WEEKEND. ELSEWHERE...TYPICAL STRONG ELY TRADES CONTINUE ACROSS THE S CARIBBEAN. HOWEVER...THEY ARE EXPECTED TO DECREASE THU AND FRI AS RIDGE OVER W ATLC WEAKENS. WINDS OVER THE SOUTHERN CARIBBEAN FORECAST TO BE 15-20 KT BY THE WEEKEND. THIS IS MUCH LOWER THAN WE HAVE SEEN IN SOME TIME. WARNINGS... ATLANTIC... NONE. CARIBBEAN... NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... .NONE. FORECASTER BROWN