000 AGXX40 KNHC 211801 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 100 PM EST TUE MAR 21 2006 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... HIGHLY COMPLICATED FRONTAL STRUCTURE CURRENTLY OVER THE SE UNITED STATES COMPRISED OF MULTIPLE BOUNDARIES. FIRST BOUNDARY CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE SW TO JUST N OF VERACRUZ MEXICO WITH A SECOND BOUNDARY FURTHER N FROM THE TENNESSEE VALLEY SW TO THE SE COAST OF TEXAS. WHILE THE SECOND BOUNDARY IS PROBABLY MORE OF A COLD FRONT...THE FORECAST WILL CONTINUE TO REFERENCE THE FIRST BOUNDARY FOR SIMPLICITY. THE SECOND BOUNDARY WILL INCREASE THE WINDS A BIT AS IT PUSHES OVER THE GULF. FIRST BOUNDARY PULLS UP STATIONARY OVER THE SE GULF WED THEN DRIFTS BACK N THROUGH EARLY THU. THEREAFTER...STRONG HIGH PRES BUILDING SWD FROM THE CENTRAL U.S. AND ITS ATTENDANT COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THE GULF IN NO UNCERTAIN TERMS THU AND THU NIGHT TERMS KICKING OUT ALL PRE-EXISTING WEAKER BOUNDARIES AND LIGHTING UP THE ENTIRE GULF WITH 20-30 KT BY FRI. GALE CONDITIONS NOW LOOK LIKELY OVER THE SW GULF AND APPROPRIATE HEADLINES WERE ADDED IN MORNING PACKAGE. GIVEN THE COMPLEX EVOLUTION OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...MUCH UNCERTAINTY LIES IN THE FORECAST. FOR ONE...THE EXACT POSITION OF THE STATIONARY FRONT WED NIGHT AND THU WILL MAKE A BIG DIFFERENCE IN THE WIND FIELD. ADDITIONALLY...A WEAK FRONTAL WAVE MAY FORM AND TRACK ALONG THE STATIONARY FRONT THU. AS SUCH...MARINE INTEREST WITHIN THE GULF OF MEXICO SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR SUBSEQUENT FORECASTS FOR UPDATES. ADDITIONALLY...THE FINAL COLD FRONT PUSHING ACROSS THE GULF THU LOOKS TO BE A BIT MORE CONVECTIVE THAN PAST FRONTS SO TSTMS MAY ADD ADDITIONAL HAZARDS. SW N ATLC... RIDGE TO RETREAT QUICKLY SEWD TODAY AHEAD OF FRONT CURRENTLY ALONG THE SE U.S. COAST. SLY WINDS ALREADY INCREASING 20-30 OVER NW PART OF ZONE AND WILL SPREAD EWD TONIGHT OVER ENTIRE AREA N OF 26N. INITIALLY 20-30 KT FORECAST BEHIND FRONT TONIGHT COMES DOWN FAST WED. FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE W ATLC AND EXITS THE AREA THU WITH WINDS AND SEAS SUBSIDING FROM W TO E. THEREAFTER...IT GETS RATHER COMPLEX AS A FRONTAL WAVE DEVELOPS ALONG THE AFOREMENTIONED STATIONARY FRONT OVER THE CENTRAL GULF THU AND MOVES NE ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA THU NIGHT. AT THE SAME TIME...ANOTHER MUCH STRONG FRONT PUSHES OFF THE SE U.S. COAST LATE THU NIGHT INTO EARLY FRI. INITIALLY...THERE WILL BE SOME SEPARATION IN THE FRONT AND LOW MAKING THE WIND FIELD MESSY. BY LATE FRI...THE LOW IS EAST OF AREA WITH FRONT BEING PRIMARILY DELINEATION IN WIND/SEAS. HIGH PRES THEN BUILDS OFF THE SE U.S. COAST OVER THE WEEKEND WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS. GIVEN THE AFOREMENTIONED EVOLUTION...WINDS/SEAS EXPECTED TO BE HIGHEST OVER THE N PORTION OF THE AREA AND LOWEST OVER THE S PORTION THROUGH MUCH OF THE FORECAST. CARIBBEAN...MODERATE TO STRONG SELY WINDS CONTINUE ALONG THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TODAY...BUT EXPECTED TO DECREASE SOME WED AND THU BRIEFLY BECOMING LIGHT LATE THU AHEAD OF NEXT BIG FRONT WHICH ENTERS THE FAR NW PORTION FRI. STRONG NLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP BEHIND THE FRONT WITH NLY SWELLS PROPAGATING THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. THIS WILL MAKE BOATING CONDITIONS VERY ROUGH OVER THE HIGH TRAFFIC CANCUN TO KEY WEST ROUTE. ONCE THE FRONT PASSES EARLY FRI...CONDITIONS WILL NOT BEGIN TO IMPROVE UNTIL LATE SAT INTO EARLY SUN. ELSEWHERE...TYPICAL STRONG ELY TRADES ACROSS THE S CARIBBEAN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH WED THEN DECREASE THU AND FRI AS RIDGE OVER W ATLC WEAKENS. HIGHEST WINDS/SEAS WILL BE NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA WITH ASSOCIATED NE SWELL ELSEWHERE OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN. WARNINGS... ATLANTIC... NONE. CARIBBEAN... NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... GALE CONDITIONS EXPECTED SW GULF ZONE GMZ082. FORECASTER RHOME