000 AGXX40 KNHC 191749 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 100 PM EST SUN MAR 19 2006 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... MODERATE TO STRONG SE FLOW IS NOW DEVELOPING IN EARNEST AS A COMPLEX SYSTEM TAKES SHAPE JUST N OF THE AREA. DEEP-LAYERED TROUGH TRAVERSING THE INNER-MOUNTAIN WEST WILL IGNITE LEE CYCLOGENESIS TONIGHT AND MONDAY. AS THE LOW EJECTS EWD OVER THE CENTRAL AND E U.S. IT WILL DRAG DOWN AN ARCTIC AIRMASS WHICH WILL ENTER THE GULF TUE. HOWEVER...A PRE-EXISTING BUT WEAKER FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE INTO THE GULF MON. THIS EVOLUTION WILL ULTIMATELY MAKE THE WIND FIELD PAINFULLY COMPLEX LEADING TO AN OVERALL EVOLUTION OF INCREASING SOUTHERLIES TODAY AND TONIGHT...WEAKER NORTHERLIES MON AND MON NIGHT BEHIND FIRST FRONT...THEN INCREASING NORTHERLIES TUE AS THE ARCTIC FRONT EMERGES INTO THE GULF. MODELS FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH STRENGTH OF SOUTHERLIES AHEAD OF FIRST FRONT WITH A LARGE SWATH OF 20-25 KT LIGHTING UP MUCH OF THE GULF WATERS LATE TONIGHT AND MONDAY. WIND DIRECTIONS VEER TOO QUICK TO GET A SIGNIFICANT SWELL GOING SO WILL KEEP SEAS AT OR JUST BELOW FULLY-DEVELOPED HEIGHTS. WINDS DECREASE OVER MOST ZONES MON NIGHT AS THE FIRST FRONT PUSHES INTO THE CENTRAL GULF AND THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE RETREATS E. SECOND FRONT PUSHES ACROSS THE THE GULF TUE AND WED BRINGING WINDS BACK UP TO 20-25 KT RANGE. AGAIN...PATTERN APPEARS MUCH TOO PROGRESSIVE FOR A SIGNIFICANT SWELL EVENT SO SEAS ARE KEPT RELATIVELY LOW GIVEN WIND SPEEDS. NOW IF THATS NOT COMPLICATED ENOUGH...THERE IS STILL INDICATION THAT THE FRONT WILL ULTIMATELY STALL OVER FAR SE PART OF AREA LATE WED INTO THU THEN POSSIBLY LIFT BACK N FRI. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY...WILL KEEP GOING FORECAST ESSENTIALLY UNCHANGED AND WAIT FOR MODEL CONVERGENCE. ATLANTIC... OH THE DAYS OF WELL-DEFINED FRONTS. INSTEAD...WE CURRENTLY HAVE MULTIPLE WEAK BOUNDARIES DOING LITTLE MORE THAN MAKING THE WIND FIELD A MESS AND THE FORECAST WORDY. OVERALL...WINDS RELATIVELY LIGHT FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR SAVE THE FAR NE PART WHERE MODERATE TO STRONG NW FLOW AND SWELLS TO 11 FT CLIP THE AREA. THE FORECAST WILL CONTINUE TO BE MESSY FOR ANOTHER PERIOD OR TWO AS THE WEAK BOUNDARIES EITHER MOVE E OF AREA OR WEAKEN ALTOGETHER. AT THE SAME TIME...A RIDGE WILL BUILD SEWD OFF THE SE U.S. COAST THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT YIELDING GENERALLY LIGHT TO MODERATE ELY FLOW S WATERS AND MODERATE W TO NW FLOW NE WATERS MON. WINDS WILL VEER AROUND TO THE SOUTH AGAIN OFF THE COAST OF FLORIDA TONIGHT AND BEGIN INCREASING MON INTO TUE AHEAD OF NEXT COLD FRONT. STRONG SLY WINDS EXPAND OVER ENTIRE N HALF OF ZONE TUE NIGHT AND WED WITH 20-30 KT LOOKING LIKE A GOOD BET WITH BORDERLINE GALE CONDITION NEAR THE N BOUNDARY. GIVEN THE FACT THAT MIXING IS TYPICALLY MINIMUM WITHIN THE SLY FLOW AHEAD OF FRONT...WILL HOLD OFF ON GALE HEADLINES FOR NOW. WINDS SHIFT TO NWLY AND STAY IN THE 20 TO 30 KT RANGE W OF FRONT UNTIL WED MORNING...THEN DECREASE RAPIDLY FROM W TO E LATE WED AND THU AS THE FRONT MOVES E OF AREA. OVERALL...GFS/NWW3 LOOKS REASONABLE AND WILL BE THE MODELS OF CHOICE FOR THE AFTERNOON PACKAGE. CARIBBEAN... THANK GOODNESS FOR RELATIVELY STABLE CONDITIONS IN THE CARIBBEAN ALLOWING MOST PERIODS TO BE GROUPED. WINDS WILL REMAIN STRONG OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN...MODERATE TO STRONG IN THE E CARIBBEAN...AND LIGHT TO MODERATE IN THE NW CARIBBEAN THROUGH WED. PEAK WINDS/SEAS LOOK TO BE LATE MON INTO TUE AS A MIGRATORY HIGH MOVES EWD OVER THE SW N ATLC. CONDITIONS TREND DOWNWARD THU AS THE ATLC SUBTROPICAL RIDGE GETS PUSHED WELL E AND THE PRES GRADIENT WEAKENS. WARNINGS... ATLANTIC... NONE. CARIBBEAN... NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. FORECASTER RHOME