000 AGXX40 KNHC 171811 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 115 PM EST FRI MAR 17 2006 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A WEAK COLD FRONT OVER THE N GULF WITH HIGH PRES RIDGE TO THE S FROM THE FLORIDA BIG BEND TO S TEXAS. THIS REGIME IS PRODUCING LIGHT WINDS AND CALM SEAS OVER THE N GULF AND SE GULF ZONES WITH MODERATE SE FLOW OVER THE SW GULF ZONE. THE WEAK FRONT WILL CONTINUE SWD TONIGHT BUT DO LITTLE MORE THAN SWITCH THE WINDS TO NLY. WIND SPEEDS NOT EXPECTED TO PICK UP MUCH BEHIND THE FRONT BUT BEGIN INCREASING SAT WHEN HIGH PRES BUILDS SWD FROM THE S UNITED STATES. MODERATE NE TO E WINDS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE E HALF OF THE GULF SAT WITH STRONG SLY FLOW OVER THE W HALF OF THE GULF. STRONG SLY FLOW THEN EXPANDS EWD OVER THE E GULF WATERS SUN AND MON AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED TO MOVE OFF THE SE TEXAS COAST EARLY MON. THE PRE-FRONTAL SLY FLOW NOW LOOKS TO BE IN THE 20-30 KT RANGE MON THEN WEAKEN LATE MON AND TUE. POST-FRONTAL NLY FLOW EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 20-25 KT RANGE MON AND TUE. MAX SEAS TO 10 FT MAINLY IN PRE-FRONTAL SLY FLOW MON/TUE MAINLY OVER THE N GULF. ATLANTIC... RIDGE CURRENTLY ACROSS THE SW ATLC IS QUICKLY GIVING WAY TO AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT OVER THE SE UNITED STATES. THE FRONT WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST LATER TODAY THEN SWEEP ACROSS THE ATLC TONIGHT AND SAT BEFORE BECOMING DIFFUSE SAT NIGHT AND DISSIPATING SUN. HIGH PRES THEN BUILDS OFF THE SE U.S. COAST SUN SHIFTING SE MON AND EXTENDING ALONG 24N TUE. SLY FLOW AROUND THE W PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE PICKS UP AGAIN TUE AHEAD OF NEXT COLD FRONT CURRENTLY FORECAST TO MOVE OFF THE SE COAST LATE TUE AND EXTEND FROM BERMUDA TO E CUBA THU. THE SECOND FRONT WILL BE MUCH STRONGER WITH BOTH PRE-FRONTAL AND POST-FRONTAL WINDS IN THE 20-30 KT RANGE. IN FACT...THE LATEST GFS IS SHOWING PRE-FRONTAL SLY FLOW REACHING NEAR GALE FORCE BUT MUCH TOO FAR OUT IN TIME TO INTRODUCE SUCH CONDITIONS AT THIS POINT. WILL NEED TO MONITOR THIS AREA FOR POSSIBLE WARNING HEADLINES DOWN THE ROAD. ELSEWHERE...REMNANT FRONTAL TROUGH OVER THE SE PART OF AREA TODAY WILL DISSIPATE LATE TONIGHT. WILL NEED TO BREAK OUT AREAS E/W OF FRONT TONIGHT ONLY TO DELINEATE CHANGE IN WIND DIRECTION AND SLIGHT INCREASE IN WINDS ACROSS THE BOUNDARY. RESIDUAL NLY SWELL OVER THE NE PART OF AREA TODAY WILL NOT HAVE A CHANCE TO SUBSIDE BEFORE WLY FLOW BEGINS INCREASING TONIGHT. FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH SAT WITH ASSOCIATED NW SWELLS AFFECTING THE SAME AREA THROUGH TUE. AS SUCH...THERE WILL BE LITTLE CHANGE IN THE OVERALL SEASTATE OVER THE NE CORNER OF THE AREA. FINALLY...GIVEN THE CURRENT PROGRESSIVE PATTERN WITH FRONTS AND ASSOCIATED NLY SWELLS EVERY FEW DAYS...THE SW PART OF THE AREA WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE THE BEST OVERALL SAILING CONDITIONS AS THE BAHAMAS BLOCK MOST OF THE NLY SWELL. CARIBBEAN... FOR THE CARIBBEAN...WHAT YOU SEE IS WHAT YOU GET...AT LEAST FOR THE NEXT 5 DAYS. 20-30 KT EXPECTED OVER THE TYPICALLY HIGHER REGION NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA WITH 15 TO 20 KT ELSEWHERE OVER THE CENTRAL TO E CARIBBEAN AND 10 TO 15 KT OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN. WINDS MIGHT PICK UP OVER THE GULF OF HONDURAS MON THROUGH WED WITH 20-25 KT CURRENTLY SHOWN IN FORECAST. SEAS WILL RUN IN THE 8-12 FT RANGE OFF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA...3-5 FT OVER THE FAR NW CARIBBEAN...AND 4-7 FT ELSEWHERE. OVERALL GFS/NWW3 COMBO LOOKS GOOD AND SEE NO REASON TO DEVIATE MUCH FROM GUIDANCE. WARNINGS... ATLANTIC... NONE. CARIBBEAN... NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. FORECASTER RHOME