000 AGXX40 KNHC 170559 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1259 AM EST FRI MAR 17 2006 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. ATLANTIC... HIGH PRES IS CENTERED OVER THE SW N ATLC OFFSHORE ZONE NEAR 28N72W WITH DYING FRONTAL BOUNDARY NOTED ON THE S SIDE OF THE RIDGE FROM 23N65W TO SOUTHERN BAHAMAS. QUIKSCAT IMAGERY INDICATES A ZONE OF NE 15-20 KT WINDS UP TO 120 NM NW OF THIS DYING BOUNDARY BUT THEY SHOULD WEAKEN BY SUNRISE. WINDS ARE BEGINNING TO PICK UP OFF THE SE U.S. COAST AS RIDGE SHIFTS E WITH LATEST BUOY OBS E OF JACKSONVILLE UP TO 20 KT. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE SW/WLY 20-25 KT MAINLY N OF 29N THROUGH THE DAY BEFORE NEXT COLD FRONT MOVES OFF THE SE COAST FRI EVENING/NIGHT. STRONGEST WINDS AND HIGHEST SEAS WILL BE E OF 70W AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE. RIDGE BUILDS BACK OVER AREA SUN WITH SLY FLOW ONCE AGAIN INCREASING OFF THE E FLORIDA COAST SUN NIGHT AHEAD OF NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM. AREA OF 20-25 KT SWLY WINDS EXPANDS TO N OF 27N ACROSS ENTIRE AREA BY TUE WITH POSSIBILITY OF 30 KT NEAR 31N. SEAS WILL BUILD ACCORDINGLY...POSSIBLY AS HIGH AS 13 FT IN SWLY SWELL. LATEST GFS RUN BRINGS COLD FRONT OFF THE SE COAST AROUND NOON ON TUE...BUT ENSEMBLE MEAN IS STILL A LITTLE SLOWER WITH FRONT MOVING OFF THE COAST LATER TUE EVENING. FORECAST WILL LIKELY FOLLOW SLOWER TREND BUT WILL MONITOR LATEST ENSEMBLE RUN FOR ANY CHANGES. CARIBBEAN... MODERATE TRADES CONTINUE MAINLY OVER THE S/CENTRAL CARIBBEAN...WHILE WINDS HAVE WEAKENED A BIT OVER THE E CARIBBEAN AND ATLC WATERS E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES. SHIP DGCT HAS BEEN CONSISTENTLY REPORTING WINDS TO 30 KT IMMEDIATELY OFF THE COLOMBIAN COAST SO CURRENT FORECAST FOR THAT AREA LOOKS ON TRACK. RIDGE OVER THE W ATLC REMAINS FIRMLY ENTRENCHED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD SO THERE SEEMS TO BE NO FORESEEN CHANGE TO THE CURRENT CONDITIONS. E/SE FLOW WILL INCREASE OVER THE FAR NW CARIBBEAN SUN NIGHT THROUGH TUE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WHICH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO. GULF OF MEXICO... BUOY OBSERVATIONS AND QUIKSCAT SHOW WINDS MAINLY 10 KT OR LESS OVER MUCH OF THE GULF WATERS. A SMALL AREA OF 15-20 KT HUGS THE NW YUCATAN COAST BUT THIS APPEARS TO BE A DIURNAL EPISODE SINCE THE GFS WEAKENS THE WINDS THROUGH THE DAY AND THEN STRENGTHENS THEM AGAIN TOMORROW NIGHT. WEAK FRONT OVER SE TEXAS MOVES E AND BRUSHES THE N GULF WATERS TODAY...BUT WINDS WILL ONLY SHIFT TO NLY AND REMAIN 10 KT OR LESS. WINDS REALLY BEGIN TO INCREASE OVER THE W GULF IN SELY FLOW ON SAT AND STRENGTHEN TO 20-25 KT BY SUN WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 8-10 FT OVER NRN SECTIONS. RELATIVELY STRONG COLD FRONT...COMPARED TO PREVIOUS FRONTS...MOVES OFF THE TEXAS COAST MON MORNING AND EXTENDS FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE BY TUE AFTERNOON. WINDS MAY BRIEFLY INCREASE TO 25-30 KT BEHIND THE FRONT ON MON...ESPECIALLY CLOSE TO THE MEXICAN COAST...BUT THEN SHOULD WEAKEN TO 10-15 KT MON NIGHT. RIDGE BUILDS IN A DAY LATER AND WINDS BECOME NE 20-25 KT BEHIND THE FRONT ON TUE. WARNINGS... ATLANTIC... NONE. CARIBBEAN... NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. FORECASTER BERG