000
AGXX40 KNHC 161757
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION   
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 
1200 PM EST THU MAR 16 2006

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND 
SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W.

ATLANTIC...
COLD FRONT PROGRESSES EWD OVER THE SW ATLC WITH THE STATIONARY 
TAIL END BECOMING DIFFUSE OVER THE SE BAHAMAS...OUT OF THE AREA 
BY SAT AFTERNOON AS THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH RE-ESTABLISHES OVER THE 
EASTERN PORTION OF THE OFFSHORE FORECAST AREA. THIS MORNING'S 
QUIKSCAT OVERPASS INDICATED STRONG NWLY FLOW IS NOW CONFINED TO 
AN AREA N OF 27N AND BETWEEN THE FRONT AND 65W. QUIKSCAT PASS 
MISSED THE STRONG SWLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT. SYSTEM IS 
RELATIVELY DRY WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A 50 NM WIDE AREA OF 
CONVECTION JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT BETWEEN 26N AND 30N. HIGH 
PRES IS CENTERED ABOUT 290 NM E OF JACKSONVILLE FL. WINDS 
CONTINUE TO DECREASE OVER THE AREA BENEATH THE HIGH...BECOMING 
LIGHT AND VARIABLE N OF 27N BY TONIGHT. HIGHEST SWELLS SHOULD 
REMAIN N OF 70W THROUGH SAT BUT ARE EXPECTED TO PROPAGATE SE AS 
FAR S AS 24N BY FRI AFTERNOON. NEXT COLD FRONT MOVES OFF THE SE 
COAST FRI AFTERNOON. GLOBAL MODELS AGREE THAT SWLY FLOW AHEAD OF 
THE SYSTEM SHOULD BE STRONGER THAN THE WLY FLOW BEHIND THE 
FRONT. 12Z GFS RUN SUGGESTS LINGERING POST-FRONTAL BOUNDARY 
RETROGRADING NWD OVER BAHAMAS AND INTO N FL ON SUN. 
HOWEVER...THE RIDGE APPEARS TO BE MORE DOMINANT THAN PREVIOUS 
RUNS...WITH N TO NE MODERATE FLOW ON SUN. E TO SELY FLOW 
COMMENCES SUN NIGHT OFF OF THE FL PENINSULA...INCREASING TO 
20-25 KT N OF 27N ON MON...WITH AN UNSTABLE WAVE POSSIBLY 
DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT JUST E OF THE FL/GA BORDER.

CARIBBEAN...
MODERATE TRADES CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE SRN CARIBBEAN AND AREAS 
OF TROPICAL ATLC S OF BARBADOS. GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST VERY 
LITTLE CHANGE IN SYNOPTIC PATTERN THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH 
HIGHEST SWELLS AND WINDS CONFINED TO THE SW CARIBBEAN AND 
ADJACENT COLOMBIAN COASTAL WATERS.

GULF OF MEXICO...
THE EARLIER QUIKSCAT OVERPASS INDICATED MODERATE E TO SELY FLOW 
BLANKETING THE ENTIRE GULF WITH A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING OVER THE 
NRN GULF COAST. SELY FLOW IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE OFF OF THE 
TX/SW LA COAST LATE TONIGHT AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM NW 
TX/OK. SYSTEM PENETRATES THE NRN GULF WATERS ON FRI...WITH LIGHT 
TO MODERATE NLY FLOW N OF 29N W OF 90W. STRONG SELY FLOW RETURNS 
SAT AND SUN...INCREASING TO 20-25 KT SUN NIGHT AND MON WITH SEAS 
BUILDING TO 9 FT IN SLY SWELL. COLD FRONT MOVES OFF THE TEXAS 
COAST ON MON MORNING WITH NEW GFS SUGGESTING STRONG SLY FLOW 
20-25 KT AHEAD AS WELL AS STRONG W TO NWLY FLOW BEHIND...BUT 
TERMINATING MON NIGHT WITH RESIDUAL 20-25 KT NLY FLOW OVER SW 
GULF AND FL BIG BEND COASTAL WATERS.

WARNINGS...

ATLANTIC...
NONE.

CARIBBEAN...
NONE.

GULF OF MEXICO...
NONE.

FORECASTER ROBERTS