000 AGXX40 KNHC 120820 CCA MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION...CORRECTED NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 230 AM EST SUN MAR 12 2006 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. HIGH PRES AGAIN IS THE MAIN FEATURE IN CONTROL OF WINDS AND SEA CONDITIONS ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA....AND WILL CONTINUE TO DO SO THROUGH TONIGHT BEFORE THE NEXT COLD FRONT ENTERS THE NW GULF MON. PRES GRADIENT HAS CHANGED LITTLE OVER PAST 24 HOURS AS LOW PRES W OF THE AREA OVER THE GREAT PLAINS AND TEXAS INTERACTS WITH THE ATLC HIGH PRES EXTENDING WSW INTO THE GULF...SO 20-25 KT SLY FLOW CONTINUES OVER THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL GULF. LATEST AND PAST BUOY OBSERVATIONS CONFIRM THESE WIND CONDITIONS. LIGHTER WINDS...IN THE RANGE OF 15-20 KT ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE GULF. MAXIMUM SEAS BEING REPORTED ARE UP TO 9 FT IN THE CENTRAL GULF. THE RIDGE WILL RETREAT EWD MON IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT FRONT WHICH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OFF THE TEXAS COAST MON AFTERNOON. GLOBAL MODELS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH TIMING OF COLD FRONT MOVING OFF THE TEXAS COAST MON AFTERNOON. LATEST NOGAPS RUN A BIT QUICKER WITH FRONT ACROSS GULF THAN REST OF THE MODELS THROUGH 48 HOURS. ONCE COLD FRONT MOVES OFF THE TEXAS COAST...IT WILL RAPIDLY MOVE E REACHING A PSN FROM SW FLORIDA TO YUCATAN PENINSULA TUE NIGHT...AND MOVE E OF GULF BY EARLY WED MORNING. WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT ARE EXPECTED TO BE N-NE IN THE 20-25 KT RANGE TUE WITH SEAS POSSIBLY BUILDING UP TO 10 FT. S OF THE FRONT WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE WITH LOW SEAS. HIGH PRES WILL BUILD ACROSS THE 20 KT RANGE BECOMING SE-S 15-20 KT THU AS NEXT COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE EXTREME NW LATE THU. NWW3 GUIDANCE VALUES LOOK REASONABLE FOR SLY FLOW ACROSS GULF. HIGH PRES OF 1028 MB ANALYZED NEAR 31N65W WILL MOVE TO EXTREME NE PART MON WITH RIDGE SW TO CENTRAL FLORIDA WILL WEAKEN AND MOVE E OF AREA TUE THROUGH EARLY WED AS GULF OF MEXICO COLD FRONT APPROACHES SW N ATLC. THE FRONT WILL MOVE QUICKLY INTO THE SW N ATLC REACHING A LINE FROM ABOUT 31N68W TO CENTRAL CUBA WED AFTERNOON. SLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 20-25 KT OFF THE NE FLORIDA COAST TUE AHEAD OF THE FRONT...AND TO NLY 20-25 KT N OF THE FRONT TUE AND WED THEN DECREASING INTO THU. AT 72 HOURS...ALL GLOBAL MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH COLD FRONT POSITION WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE GFS AND CANADIAN BEING SLIGHTER QUICKER...AND THE NAM LAGGING BEHIND REST OF THE MODELS. WILL USE GFS OUT THROUGH 72 HOURS FOR TIMING AND POSITION OF COLD FRONT...THEN USE MODEL CONSENSUS THEREAFTER. LARGE NE SWELLS WILL LINGER OVER THE SE PART OF THE SW N ATLC THROUGH MON NIGHT THEN DECEASE TUE. ELY FLOW WILL REMAIN IN THE MODERATE S OF 25N TODAY...THEN S OF 26N E OF 76W MON DECREASING TUE MORNING THROUGH THU. LATEST NWW3 GUIDANCE LOOKS MORE REPRESENTABLE WITH RESPECT TO SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS S OF 26N. WINDS OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN ARE 25-30 KT S OF 14N BETWEEN 71W-78W AS REVEALED IN A QUIKSCAT PASS FROM 2300 UTC LAST NIGHT. THESE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DECREASE AFTER LATE TUE AS THE ATLC RIDGE N OF THE AREA WEAKENS AND RETREATS EWD. ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN...SE WINDS OF 20-25 KT WERE NOTED FROM LAST NIGHT'S QUIKSCAT PASS OVER THE NW PART OF THE CARIBBEAN W OF 82W AND MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. WINDS OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN ARE EXPECTED TO DECREASE MON NIGHT...HOWEVER WILL REMAIN 20-25 KT ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN S OF ABOUT 14N. LARGE RESIDUAL NNE ATLC SWELLS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH NE CARIBBEAN PASSAGES THROUGH AT LEAST TUE MORNING. HIGH PRES OVER THE ATLC WILL KEEP MODERATE NE WINDS ACROSS THE TROPICAL N ATLC THROUGH TUE...THEN DECREASING OVER THE NORTHERN PORTION WED AS RIDGE RETREATS EWD. SEAS OF 8-12 FT CAN BE EXPECTED OVER THE NORTHERN PART OF THE TROPICAL N ATLC THROUGH MON DECREASING TO 9 FT TUE...AND TO 8 FT S OF 15N AND TO 6 FT FROM 15N-22N WED...THEN TO 8 FT S OF 14N AND 6 FT N OF 14N BY THU. WARNINGS... ATLANTIC... NONE. CARIBBEAN... NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. FORECASTER AGUIRRE