000 AGXX40 KNHC 110748 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 230 AM EST SAT MAR 11 2006 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. HIGH PRES WILL BE THE MAIN WEATHER PLAYER ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO AND ACROSS REMAINDER OF FORECAST REGION INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. MODERATE TO STRONG SLY WINDS...IN THE RANGE OF 20-25 KT WITH HIGHER GUSTS AT TIMES OVER THE N/CENTRAL GULF...CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF THE GULF EXCEPT THE EXTREME EASTERN AND WESTERN PORTIONS AS SEEN IN BUOY OBSERVATIONS WITH SEAS STILL RATHER HIGH ( UP TO 11 FT) OVER PARTS OF THE MIDDLE AND NW GULF. SE SWELLS UP TO 8 FT ARE BEING OBSERVED ACROSS REMAINDER OF GULF. THESE CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO BE ATTRIBUTED TO HIGH PRES RIDGE EXTENDING WWD FROM THE W ATLC INTO THE MIDDLE GULF OF MEXICO INTERACTING WITH LOWER PRES OVER THE SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS. THE RIDGE WILL RETREAT EWD SUN NIGHT AND MON IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT FRONT WHICH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE TEXAS COASTAL WATERS MON AFTERNOON. 00Z GFS MODEL RUN IN AGREEMENT WITH PREVIOUS RUN IN POSITIONS OF COLD FRONT ACROSS GULF OF MEXICO. CANADIAN 00Z MODEL SIMILAR TO GFS IN MIMING AND COLD FRONT POSITIONS ACROSS GULF NEXT 48 HOURS. COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO REACH A PSN FROM NE FLORIDA TO THE EASTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE LATE TUE...MOVING E OF GULF BY EARLY WED MORNING. WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT ARE EXPECTED TO BE N-NE IN THE 20-25 KT RANGE TUE WITH SEAS POSSIBLY BUILDING TO 9 FT. S OF THE FRONT WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE WITH LOW SEAS. HIGH PRES WILL BUILD ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WITH WINDS BECOMING LIGHT TO MODERATE ELY ACROSS ALMOST THE ENTIRE GULF BY WED. INITIAL NWW3 GUIDANCE ABOUT 1-2 FT LOW ON SEAS OVER CENTRAL GULF. WILL MAKE ADJUSTMENTS TO SEA STATE FOR FIRST PERIOD. HIGH PRES OF 1028 MB ANALYZED JUST N OF AREA NEAR 33N61W WILL MOVE TO EXTREME NE PART MON WITH RIDGE ALONG 30N...THEN RIDGE RETREATS E OF AREA TUE AND WED IN ADVANCE OF GULF OF MEXICO COLD FRONT MOVING INTO SW N ATLC ZONE. THE FRONT WILL MOVE QUICKLY INTO THE SW N ATLC REACHING A LINE FROM ABOUT 31N65W TO CENTRAL CUBA WED AFTERNOON. SLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 20 KT OFF THE NE FLORIDA COAST TUE AHEAD OF THE FRONT...AND TO NLY 20 KT N OF THE FRONT TUE AND WED. LARGE NNE SWELLS WILL LINGER OVER THE SE PART OF THE SW N ATLC THROUGH THE DECEASE TUE. ELY FLOW WILL REMAIN IN THE MODERATE S OF S OF 26N SAT AND SUN...THEN S OF 26N E OF 76W MON DECREASING TUE AND WED. NWW3 GUIDANCE RUNNING LOW WITH RESPECT TO WAVE HEIGHTS OVER WATERS S OF 23N E OF THE BAHAMAS. LONG FETCH OF MODERATE ELY FLOW LAST FEW DAYS HAS BUILD HAS RESULTED IN HIGH SEAS HERE IN AN E SWELL. WILL KEEP SEAS HIGHER HERE THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY SUN MORNING. WINDS OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN ARE IN THE 25-30 KT OVER A SMALL AREA DUE TO THE HIGH PRES RIDGING SWD TOWARDS THE CARIBBEAN. THESE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DECREASE LATE MON INTO TUE AS THE RIDGE WEAKENS. ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN...SE WINDS OF 20-25 KT WERE NOTED FROM LAST NIGHT'S QUIKSCAT PASS OVER THE NW PART OF THE CARIBBEAN W OF 82W AND MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. WINDS OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN ARE EXPECTED TO DECREASE DURING SUN AND CONTINUING THROUGH TUE...AND REMAIN AT 20-25 KT ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN S OF ABOUT 14N. LARGE RESIDUAL ATLC N AND NW SWELLS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH NE CARIBBEAN PASSAGES THROUGH TODAY THEN SUBSIDE TONIGHT AND SUN. HIGH PRES OVER THE ATLC WILL KEEP MODERATE NE WINDS ACROSS THE TROPICAL N ATLC FRI THROUGH TUE...THEN LEVELING OFF SOME OVER THE NORTHERN PORTION WED AS RIDGE RETREATS EWD IN ADVANCE OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT. SEAS OF 8-12 FT CAN BE EXPECTED OVER THE NORTHERN PART OF THE TROPICAL N ATLC THROUGH MON DECREASING TO 9 FT TUE AND TO 8 FT S OF 15N AND TO 6 FT FROM 15N-22N. WARNINGS... ATLANTIC... NONE. CARIBBEAN... NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. FORECASTER AGUIRRE