000 AGXX40 KNHC 090709 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 210 AM EST THU MAR 09 2006 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. HIGH PRES RIDGE EXTENDING WWD FROM THE W ATLC INTO THE MIDDLE GULF OF MEXICO IS INTERACTING WITH LOWER PRES OVER THE W GULF TO SUSTAIN RATHER STRONG SLY WINDS OVER THE W GULF AND MUCH OF W HALF OF THE MIDDLE GULF. BUOY OBSERVATIONS FROM EARLY THIS MORNING ARE INDICATING WINDS IN THE RANGE OF 20-25 KT WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 30 KT NEAR THE COAST ACROSS THESE GULF WATERS. THESE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO SPREAD EASTWARD ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE MIDDLE GULF THIS MORNING...AND THE REST OF THE GULF LATER TODAY. THE RIDGE WILL SHIFT EASTWARD THROUGH FRI NIGHT AS A WEAK FRONT MOVES INTO THE NORTHERN GULF COASTAL PLAINS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WITH UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT BEING MOSTLY SW TO ZONAL...WILL NOT EXPECTED FRONT TO MOVE MUCH TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT IT MAY ACTUALLY BECOME DIFFUSE FRI AS ATLC RIDGING AGAIN EXTENDS WWD INTO THE GULF WITH STRONG SLY FLOW PERSISTING ACROSS THE GULF FRI INTO MON. INITIAL NWW3 SEAS LOOK PRETTY GOOD...SO WILL FOLLOW GUIDANCE CLOSE FOR SLY RETURN FLOW EVENT OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. COLD FRONT HAS EXITED THE SW N ATLC...AND NOW EXTENDS FROM NORTHERN POTION OF THE TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS SW AS WEAKENING INTO THE E CARIBBEAN SEA. A QUIKSCAT PASS FROM NEAR 2234 UTC LAST NIGHT REVEALED GALE FORCE WINDS TO 35 KT JUST E OF THE NE CORNER OF THE SW N ATLC ZONE WITH 20-30 KT WINDS PRESENT N OF 27N E OF 70W. HIGH PRES OF 1023 MB ANALYZED NEAR 31N77W WILL QUICKLY SHIFT E OF AREA THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AS THIS HAPPENS SLY WINDS WILL INCREASE OVER THE NW PART OF THE SW N ATLC THIS AFTERNOON N OF ABOUT 26N W OF 75W. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO WEAKEN FRI NIGHT THROUGH MON AS RIDGE BECOMES ALIGNED 31N. LARGE NNE SWELLS WILL LINGER OVER THE SE PART OF THE SW N ATLC MON...WITH STRONG ELY FLOW EXPECTED S OF 26N SAT AND SUN...THEN S OF 26N E OF 76W MON. 00Z GFS WIND GUIDANCE KEEPS WINDS BELOW 30 KT OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON ...THEN INCREASES WINDS TO 25-30 KT TONIGHT AS THE ATLC RIDGE STRENGTHENS E-SE WINDS TO 20 KT OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN...INCLUDING THE YUCATAN CHANNEL WILL INCREASE TO 20-25 KT TONIGHT THROUGH SAT...THEN DECREASE TO 15-20 KT BEGINNING TONIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH MON MAINLY W OF ABOUT 82W. ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN...WINDS WILL BE IN THE 20-25 KT OVER MUCH OF THE AREA THROUGH MON. THE ATLC COLD FRONT EXTENDING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE TROPICAL N ATLC IS EXPECTED TO BECOME DIFFUSE LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR EARLY TONIGHT AS HIGH PRES RE-BUILDS OVER THE ATLC WITH MODERATE NE WINDS ACROSS THE NORTHERN TROPICAL N ATLC FRI...THEN ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE TROPICAL N ATLC SAT THROUGH MON. SEAS OF 8-10 FT CAN BE EXPECTED OVER THE NORTHERN PART OF THE TROPICAL N ATLC THROUGH MON...AND SEAS BUILDING TO 9 FT SAT THROUGH MON OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE TROPICAL N ATLC. WARNINGS... ATLANTIC... NONE. CARIBBEAN... NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. FORECASTER AGUIRRE