000 AGXX40 KNHC 080732 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 230 AM EST WED MAR 08 2006 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM WESTERN CUBA NW INTO THE NW GULF NEAR 26N92W WHERE IT BECOMES STATIONARY NNW ACROSS SW LOUISIANA. STRONG SURGE OF HIGH PRES IS RIDGING SWD ACROSS THE GULF E OF 92W USHERING IN A DRIER AND COOLER AIR MASS. THE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO PRESS SWD THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON THEN SHIFT E OF THE GULF AND INTO THE W ATLC THIS EVENING. THE FRONT WILL GRADUALLY DISSIPATE DURING THE MORNING. STRONG RETURN HAS SET W OF 92W IN RESPONSE TO DEVELOPING LOW PRES OVER THE MID-WEST AND THE HIGH OVER THE E GULF. CURRENTLY...BUOY OBSERVATIONS AND SHIP REPORTS INDICATE S WINDS GENERALLY IN THE 20-25 KT RANGE. THESE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 25-30 KT LATE TONIGHT AND THU AS THE NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE NW GULF. THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE THU NIGHT SW LOUISIANA TO SE TEXAS. THE FRONT WILL BE FOLLOWED BY LIGHT WLY WINDS...BUT WILL ONLY BE SHORT-LIVED AS SLY FLOW TAKES OVER THE ENTIRE GULF FRI INTO SUN. LATEST GFS 10M AND 30M GFS WIND FORECAST INDICATES THAT SLY WINDS MAY BRIEFLY REACH UP TO 30 KT OVER THE MIDDLE GULF ON SAT...WITH 20-25 KT ACROSS REMAINDER OF THE GULF. WILL STICK CLOSE TO NWW3 GUIDANCE FOR SLY RETURN FLOW EVENTS SINCE IT INITIALIZES PRETTY WELL WITH RESPECT TO OBSERVED VALUES. STRONG DEEP-LAYERED TROUGH EXTENDING FROM 31N72W TO 26N75W WILL RAPIDLY MOVE E OF AREA EARLY THIS EVENING. AT THE SURFACE...A 1004 MB LOW IS ANALYZED NEAR 31N70W WITH AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ENTERING THE REGION THROUGH 31N66W AND EXTENDING SW THROUGH 26N70W TO E CUBA WHERE IT BECOMES DIFFUSE INTO THE NORTHERN CARIBBEAN ALONG 21N80W AND INTO THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. A QUIKSCAT PASS FROM NEAR 2300 LAST NIGHT INDICATED GALE FORCE WINDS IN THE RANGE OF 30-45 KT N OF 27N W OF THE FRONT TO NEAR 76W. DO NOT SEE STORM FORCE WINDS IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE LOW...AND DO NOT SEE WINDS GAINING STORM STRENGTH AGAIN. SO WITH THIS IN MIND...WILL LET STORM WANING EXPIRE THIS MORNING...BUT WILL KEEP GALE WARNING FOR AN AREA BEHIND THE FRONT FOR TODAY THEN BRINGS WINDS TO BELOW GALE FORCE TONIGHT. WINDS WILL DECREASE BRIEFLY OVER THE SW N ATLC AS HIGH PRES BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA. LARGE NNE SWELLS WILL LINGER OVER MUCH OF THE AREA NE OF THE BAHAMAS THROUGH SAT AS THE HIGH MOVES E. SLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE W OF 75W THU THROUGH FRI THEN DECREASE SAT AND SUN...EXCEPT FOR THE AREA S OF 26N WHERE STRONG FETCH OF E-SE WINDS WILL BE PRESENT. A QUIKSCAT PASS FROM NEAR 2300 LAST NIGHT INDICATED THAT WINDS HAD DECREASE SOME NEAR THE COLOMBIAN COAST WITH WINDS IN THE RANGE 20-25 KT. ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN...WINDS WERE IN THE LIGHT RANGE. 00Z GFS WIND GUIDANCE KEEPS WINDS BELOW 30 KT THIS MORNING THEN INCREASES TO 25-30 KT THIS AFTERNOON AND NIGHT AS THE ATLC HIGH PRES BUILDS TO THE N OF THE AREA. SE WINDS INCREASE OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN...INCLUDING THE YUCATAN CHANNEL...BEGINNING TONIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH SAT DECREASING SLIGHTLY SUN. THE ATLC COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AS IT SWEEPS ACROSS THE N PORTION OF THE TROPICAL ATLC WATERS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THU MORNING THEN E OF AREA THU NIGHT AS HIGH PRES RE-BUILDS OVER THE ATLC WITH MODERATE NE WINDS ACROSS THE TROPICAL N ATLC AND SOUTHERN PART OF THE SW N ATLC SAT AND SUN. SEAS 8-10 FT CAN BE EXPECTED OVER THE NORTHERN PART OF THE TROPICAL N ATLC THU THROUGH SUN. WARNINGS... ATLANTIC... GALE WARNING N OF 26N E BETWEEN 65W AND 70W...AMZ080. CARIBBEAN... NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. FORECASTER AGUIRRE