000 AGXX40 KNHC 070718 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 215 AM EST TUE MAR 07 2006 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. CHANGES ARE UNDERWAY FOR THE FORECAST AREA BEGINNING THIS MORNING DUE MAINLY TO EVOLVING SCENARIO TAKING SHAPE IN THE MID/UPPER LEVELS THAT WILL SIGNIFICANTLY IMPACT MOST OF THE FORECAST WATERS. HIGH PRES CENTER LOCATED NEAR 26N68W WITH RIDGE WSW TO CENTRAL BAHAMAS WILL RAPIDLY MOVE ENE OF THE AREA THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON AS A PAIR OF RATHER SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE TROUGHS PLUNGE SEWD TOWARDS SW N ATLC WATERS TODAY AND TONIGHT. ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT ALONG THE GEORGIA AND SOUTH CAROLINA COAST EXTENDS INTO LOW PRES OF 1011 MB OVER THE SE PART OF SOUTH CAROLINA EARLY THIS MORNING. MAJORITY OF GLOBAL MODELS...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE NOGAPS...DO AGREE THAT LOW WILL TRACK SE ONCE IT GETS FURTHER AWAY FROM THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST LATER THIS MORNING. IT SHOULD CONTINUE ON THIS TRACK THROUGH THE NEXT 12 HOURS...THEN MORE E ALONG 31N/32N REACHING 32N68W IN ABOUT 24 HOURS. THE COLD FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM 31N73W SW TO 23N78W THIS AFTERNOON...FROM 27N65W TO HISPANIOLA BY WED MORNING...THEN MOVE E OF THE AREA WED AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRES BUILDS IN BEHIND IT ACROSS THE NW PART OF THE SW N ATL WED INTO FRI WITH RIDGE EXTENDING ALONG 30N BY SAT. LATEST RUN OF THE GFS MODEL SUGGESTS THAT A BRIEF PERIOD OF STORM FORCE WINDS OVER THE W SEMICIRCLE OF THE LOW MENTIONED ABOVE WILL CLIP THE AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND AT LEAST FOR THE EARLY PART OF TONIGHT THEN DECREASE TO GALE FORCE LATE TONIGHT INTO WED MORNING. GFS IS THE ONLY MODEL INDICATING STORM FORCE WINDS MOVING S OF 31N WITH THIS LOW. GIVEN STRENGTHEN OF SHORTWAVES AND FACT THAT LOW WILL BE TRAVERSING THE WARM GULF STREAM...IT WILL NOT TAKE MUCH FOR WINDS STORM FORCE TO SPILL S OF 31N. SO WITH THIS IN MIND...WILL KEEP CURRENT STORM WARNING RECENTLY POSTED BY PREVIOUS SHIFT FOR THE NORTHERN PART OF THE SW N ATLC FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...THEN LOWER WINDS TO GALE FOR AREA N OF ABOUT 27N AND E OF 70W FOR WED MORNING DECREASING TO 20 TO 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON SIMILARLY TO AS CURRENTLY ADVERTISED IN CURRENT FORECAST. LATEST NWW3 GUIDANCE LOOKS REASONABLE FOR FIRST 18-21 HOURS...BUT WILL INCREASE SEAS ABOUT 2-3 FT HIGHER THAN GIVEN VALUES FOR AFFECTED STORM WARNING AREA. IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW/FRONT...LARGE NNW SWELLS WILL LINGER OVER THE E PART OF THE SW N ATLC THU THROUGH SAT...PUSHING THROUGH NE CARIBBEAN SEA PASSAGES SUBSIDING SLOWLY SAT. GULF OF MEXICO...HIGH PRES WILL WEAKEN THIS MORNING AS THE WESTERN EXTENT OF THE COLD FRONT ALONG THE GEORGIA AND SOUTH CAROLINA COAST MOVES INTO THE E GULF. RETURN FLOW IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE OVER THE W GULF THROUGH TONIGHT AS LOW PRES DEVELOPS OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. THE RETURN FLOW WILL THEN INCREASE ACROSS REMAINDER OF THE GULF THROUGH SAT AS NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE NORTHERN GULF THU THROUGH FRI MORNING AND LOW PRES ONCE AGAIN DEVELOPS OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. WINDS 20-25 KT WED ACROSS THE NW GULF...THEN LIKELY INCREASING TO 20-30 KT WED AND WED NIGHT. STRONGEST WINDS MAY NOT MIX DOWN OVER THE MORE STABLE COOLER SHELF WATERS NEAR SHORE...BUT WILL LIKELY MIX BETTER OVER THE WARMER OPEN GULF WATERS. 20-25 KT WINDS WILL SPREAD EAST ACROSS THE ENTIRE GULF OF MEXICO WED NIGHT AND THU. WILL KEEP SIMILAR THINKING OF PREVIOUS FORECASTS IN KEEPING SEAS HIGHER THAN WHAT NWW3 GUIDANCE INDICATES IN RETURN FLOW. CARIBBEAN...20-25 KT WINDS TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE S CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. A QUIKSCAT PASS FROM NEAR 2330 UTC LAST NIGHT REVEALED 25-30 KT WINDS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST OF COLOMBIA LIKE IT DID 12 HOURS BEFORE. SO WILL KEEP CURRENT 25-30 KT WINDS IN FORECAST THROUGH SAT AS STRONGER HIGH PRES IS STILL FORECAST TO BUILD SWD RD OVER THE ATLC WED NIGHT WITH WINDS INCREASING OVER MUCH OF THE E AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. EXPECTING 20-25 KT SELY WINDS OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN AND YUCATAN CHANNEL THU AND FRI AS WINDS OVER THE GULF INCREASE. GFS MAY BE A LITTLE LOW ON THESE WINDS AND NWW3 LIKELY TOO LOW ON SEAS ESPECIALLY OVER THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. CANCUN TO KEY WEST ROUTE LOOKS RATHER WINDY WED NIGHT THROUGH SAT. COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SWEEP ACROSS THE N PORTION OF THE TROPICAL ATLC WATERS WED AND THU. HIGH PRES WILL RE-BUILD OVER THE ATLC WITH NELY WINDS BECOMING MODERATE. NLY SWELL TO INCREASE TO 8-10 FT ACROSS THE N PART OF THE TROPICAL N ATLC SAT. WARNINGS...SEE LATEST OFFSHORE FORECAST FOR WARNING AREAS. ATLANTIC... STORM WARNING N OF 27N BETWEEN 65W AND 77W...AMZ080. CARIBBEAN... NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. FORECASTER AGUIRRE