000
AGXX40 KNHC 061752
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION   
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 
115 PM EST MON MAR 06 2006

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND 
SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W.

FAIRLY QUIET DAY ACROSS THE MARINE AREA. HIGH PRES IS CENTERED 
JUST NE OF THE N BAHAMAS WITH A SECOND HIGH CENTER OVER THE NW 
GULF OF MEXICO.  PATTERN TO CHANGE RATHER QUICKLY TONIGHT WITH 
TWO SHORTWAVE TROUGHS OVER THE E U.S. HEADING SE TOWARDS THE SE 
U.S. COAST.  

LOW PRES IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP ALONG THE COAST OF THE CAROLINAS 
LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THE LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE EASTWARD 
OVERNIGHT...THEN BEGIN TO QUICKLY STRENGTHEN NEAR 33N73W TUE 
BEFORE TURNING NE PASSING N OF BERMUDA TUE NIGHT. GFS HAS BEEN 
TRENDING SOUTHWARD DURING THE LAST FEW RUNS WITH THE LOCATION OF 
THE LOW.  THIS MAKES A BIG DIFFERENCE IN WINDS ACROSS THE SW N 
ATLC WATERS. 12Z GFS IS SIMILAR TO 12Z UKMET AND NAM WITH 
STRENGTH AND LOCATION OF LOW. GFS IS A BIT STRONGER WITH WINDS. 
GFS FORECASTS A LARGE AREA OF GALES N OF 28N E OF ABOUT 
75W...BEGINNING MID-DAY TUE AND CONTINUING INTO EARLY WED OVER 
THE NE PORTION OF THE AREA. 12Z NOGAPS FARTHER N WITH THE LOW 
AND DOES NOT INDICATE GALES S OF 31N. 12Z GFS ENSEMBLES JUST 
ARRIVED...GALE PROBABILITY INCREASED DRAMATICALLY WITH THIS 
RUN.  NOW SHOWING 40-60 PERCENT CHANCE AT 0000 UTC WED WITH 
AREA OF 90 PERCENT CHANCE AT 0600 UTC WED. MUST ISSUE GALE 
WARNING WITH THIS PACKAGE.

NWW3 FORECAST SEAS ARE SEVERAL FEET HIGH THAN IN CURRENT 
FORECAST. WILL HAVE TO INCREASE TO AT ABOUT 15-20 FT. NWW3 
FORECASTING MAX SEAS OF UP TO 21 FT. 

IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW/FRONT HIGH PRES TO BUILD OVER THE W ATLC. 
HIGH SHOULD HOLD STRONG THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST 
PERIOD. MODERATE WINDS LIKELY AROUND THE HIGH OVER THE S AND 
NW PORTIONS. LARGE SWELL WILL AFFECT THE E PART OF THE AREA 
THROUGH THU BEFORE SLOWLY SUBSIDING FRI.

GULF OF MEXICO...HIGH PRES WILL REMAIN ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA 
THROUGH TONIGHT. FRONT TRAILING FROM DEVELOPING LOW IN THE ATLC 
WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE E GULF TONIGHT WITH A VERY BRIEF PERIOD OF 
MODERATE WINDS. HIGH PRES WILL SLIDE EASTWARD WITH RETURN SLY 
FLOW INCREASING TUE AFTERNOON. DEVELOPING LOW PRES OVER THE 
CENTRAL U.S. WILL HELP TO PRODUCE STRONG WINDS ACROSS MUCH OF 
THE GULF WED AND THU. TRAILING FRONT WEAKENS AS TO MOVES INTO 
THE NW GULF. WINDS TO DECREASE SLIGHTLY FRI BEFORE INCREASING 
AGAIN SAT AHEAD OF ANOTHER DEVELOPING LOW. 

WINDS 20-25 KT WED ACROSS THE NW GULF...THEN LIKELY INCREASING 
TO 20-30 KT WED NIGHT. STRONGEST WINDS MAY NOT MIX DOWN OVER THE 
MORE STABLE COOLER SHELF WATERS NEAR SHORE...BUT WILL LIKELY MIX 
BETTER OVER THE WARMER OPEN GULF WATERS. 20-25 KT WINDS WILL 
SPREAD EAST ACROSS THE ENTIRE GULF OF MEXICO WED NIGHT AND THU. 
NWW3 LIKELY TOO SLOW IN DEVELOPING SEAS IN THE SOUTHERLY FLOW. 
MAY HAVE TO INCREASE SEAS BY 2 TO 4 FT WED. MODEL "CATCHES-UP" 
WED NIGHT AS IT INDICATES 13 FT MAX WED NIGHT. WINDS AND SEAS 
DECREASE MAINLY OVER THE W PART FRI AS LOW MOVES INTO THE GREAT 
LAKES. WINDS INCREASE TO 20-25 KT AGAIN FRI NIGHT AND SAT AS THE 
NEXT LOW BEGINS TO TAKE SHAPE. 

CARIBBEAN...20-25 KT WINDS TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE S CENTRAL 
CARIBBEAN. MORNING QUIKSCAT DATA DETECTED 25-30 KT WINDS ALONG 
THE IMMEDIATE COAST OF COLOMBIA. EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE IN THESE 
WINDS THROUGH WED. STRONGER HIGH PRES BUILDS SOUTHWARD OVER THE 
ATLC WED NIGHT WITH WINDS INCREASING OVER MUCH OF THE E AND 
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. 

EXPECTING 20-25 KT SELY WINDS OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN AND YUCATAN 
CHANNEL THU AND FRI AS WINDS OVER THE GULF INCREASE. GFS MAY BE 
A LITTLE LOW ON THESE WINDS AND NWW3 LIKELY TOO LOW ON SEAS 
ESPECIALLY OVER THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. CANCUN TO KEY WEST ROUTE 
LOOKS RATHER WINDY WED NIGHT THROUGH SAT.

COLD FRONT TO SWEEP ACROSS THE N PORTION OF THE TROPICAL ATLC 
WATERS TUE NIGHT AND WED. HIGH PRES RE-BUILDS OVER THE ATLC 
WITH NELY WINDS BECOMING MODERATE. NLY SWELL TO INCREASE TO 
8-10 FT ACROSS THE N PART OF THE AREA.

WARNINGS...SEE LATEST OFFSHORE FORECAST FOR WARNING AREAS.

ATLANTIC...
GALE WARNING N OF 28N BETWEEN 65W AND 76W...AMZ080.

CARIBBEAN...
NONE.

GULF OF MEXICO...
NONE.

FORECASTER BROWN