000 AGXX40 KNHC 050624 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 130 AM EST SUN MAR 05 2006 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... DISSIPATING COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED SE OF THE AREA WITH HIGH PRES BUILDING SWD FROM THE E UNITED STATES NOW DOMINATING THE PATTERN. MODERATE ELY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TODAY GRADUALLY WEAKENING TONIGHT AS THE HIGH CENTER SETTLES IN OVER THE N GULF. THE GRADIENT BEGINS TO TIGHTEN UP AGAIN ON TUE AS LOW PRES DEVELOPS OVER THE W ATLC. THE DEVELOPING LOW WILL DRAG DOWN A COLD FRONT PRODUCING MODERATE NLY FLOW OVER THE E GULF WITH STRONG SLY RETURN FLOW OVER THE NW GULF. THE LOW PULLS WELL E OF THE AREA BY WED BUT HIGH PRES OVER THE W ATLC COUPLED WITH DEVELOPING LOW PRES OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES WILL MAINTAIN STRONG SLY FLOW OVER THE W GULF WED SPREADING OVER THE ENTIRE GULF WED NIGHT INTO THU. THE GFS AND THE CANADIAN MODELS SHOW THE NEXT COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE NW GULF THU. HOWEVER...NOGAPS AND THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN KEEP THE FRONT W OF AREA THROUGH THU. WILL GO WITH THE GFS DEPICTION ON TIMING OF FRONT. HOWEVER...GIVEN MODEL TO MODEL INCONSISTENCIES...PREFER A MORE CONSERVATIVE WIND FORECAST OF 20-25 KT AHEAD OF FRONT AND 15 TO 20 KT BEHIND FRONT. CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC... COLD FRONT CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS THE W ATLC WATERS WILL REMAIN N OF THE CARIBBEAN BUT CLIP THE N PORTION OF THE TROPICAL N ATLC TODAY AND MON. THE STRONGEST WINDS WITH THE FRONT WILL PASS N OF THE AREA BUT ASSOCIATED NW SWELL WILL AFFECT THE TROPICAL N ATLC LATER TODAY THROUGH TUE. HIGH PRES BUILDS SWD FROM THE E UNITED STATES OVER THE W ATLC TODAY THROUGH MON WITH SOME INCREASE IN WINDS OVER THE CARIBBEAN. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE W ATLC TUE BUT THIS ONE MAY ACTUALLY PUSH INTO THE CARIBBEAN WED AND THU. WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW GALE BUT RUN IN THE 20-30 KT RANGE THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST. SW N ATLANTIC... WEAKENING COLD FRONT CURRENTLY OVER THE SE PART OF THE ZONE WILL LIMP E OF AREA THIS AFTERNOON. NW WINDS TO 20 KT AND SWELLS TO 12 FT WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE FAR NE PART THROUGH TONIGHT. WINDS/SEAS WILL BRIEFLY TREND DOWNWARD SUN NIGHT INTO EARLY MON AS HIGH PRES MOVES OFF THE SE UNITED STATES COAST PRODUCING LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS OVER THE N HALF OF THE AREA AND MODERATE ELY WINDS OVER THE S HALF. THE BREAK BETWEEN FRONTS WILL BE SHORT-LIVED AS SLY WINDS PICK BACK UP AGAIN OVER NW PART LATE MON IN ADVANCE OF DEVELOPING LOW PRES OFF THE SE UNITED STATES. THE DEVELOPING LOW WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA TUE AND WED. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE OVERALL EVOLUTION OF THIS PATTERN WITH A LARGE SWATH OF 20-30 KT INDICATED BY THE CANADIAN...NOGAPS...AND ECMWF. THE GFS REMAINS THE OUTLIER WITH WINDS REACHING 40 KT BOTH AHEAD AND BEHIND FRONT. WILL COMPROMISE AND GO TO 35 KT THUS REQUIRING A HEADLINE FOR GALE CONDITIONS EXPECTED. FRONT SHIFTS E OF AREA THU WITH WINDS/SEAS TRENDING DOWNWARD. WARNINGS... ATLANTIC... NONE. CARIBBEAN... NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. FORECASTER RHOME